This is the game I have been waiting for since UNC turned to sh*t! Duke/Maryland, this has become a huge rivalry in the ACC, and what better way to increase the stakes then to put the regular season ACC title on the line. With a victory tonight, Duke clinches the title outright, but if Maryland wins they are tied going into the last game of the season. Now I know Duke embarrassed Maryland earlier this season in Cameron and people are expecting revenge from Maryland, but I do not put too much stock into this revenge theory. Last year, Duke beat Maryland by 41 in Cameron, then turned around 2 weeks later and won by 11 in College Park, then again in the ACC tournament. Having said that, I do not expect Duke to win by double figures in this one. This should be one of the best games of the year. It’s senior night for Maryland’s big 3 including Vazquez, the Maryland crowd absolutely despises Duke(I mean hate doesn’t even cover it), Maryland is playing to move up the bracket while Duke is playing for the last 1 seed, and not to mention the ACC regular season title. There could not be more at stake in this game unless it came in the tourney.
I’ll start with the Blue Devils. Duke has found their stride again winning their last 8, 4 of which have been on the road. The emergence of Zoubek inside has made the difference. I’m not sure where this came from, but he is averaging over 10 rebounds per game in his last 4 conference games including a double-double, 17 rebound performance against these same Terrapins a few weeks back. His presence on the offensive glass has been huge. With the multitude of shooter the Devils have, they will make you pay more times than not for giving them a second chance. Along with Zoubek, Kyle Singler has also come along and has been the player everyone knew he could be. He has found his stroke from the outside, which just makes this team all the more dangerous.
The Terrapins have wound down there regular season on a high as well, and what better way to cap it off than a victory against the hated Blue Devils. The crowd will be rockin’ and everyone will be pumped. Maryland has won 5 straight since their loss to Duke, and have played very well. Maryland is a different animal at home where they shoot over 50% from the field and are averaging 84 ppg. On top of that, their defense plays much better, holding opponents to 37% shooting and most importantly they hold opponents to 32% from behind the arc. Their perimeter defense is successful because they have athletes on the wings that are long and can contest shots. If Duke is reliant on the 3 tonight for all of its offense they will be in trouble. In other words, they have to get to the rim. Maryland lacks size in the middle, which was apparent in Cameron.
While Duke dominated Maryland in the first meeting, do not expect the same tonight. Gary Williams is a great coach, and believe me he will have corrected the problems from a few weeks ago and have his Terps ready to play. A more accurate representation of tonight’s game is the second half of the last game. It was close, and Maryland fought to come back, but it was just too much in the end. The key for Duke will be can they survive the first 8 minutes. I expect Maryland to come out red hot like they do most times at home. If Duke gets down early, they will not be able get back. Watching every game this year, Duke is a team where once they are down, game plans go out the window and they start jacking up shots from the outside. When they fall they are fine, but if they hit a cold streak it could be over by half.
So what will win this game for either side? Duke’s defense or lack there of. Maryland will want to get into a running game because they play with such confidence at home. Duke on the other hand, will not necessarily look to slow the game completely, but more play efficient basketball. Duke’s defense has let them down a bit on the road, but not as much as their offense. The home/road splits are alarming. I’m not going to spout them off because I’m not here to insult anyone’s intelligence. Everyone knows Duke struggles on the road. John Scheyer will be key tonight for Duke as well. Now I know some of you may be thinking, “No Sh*t!”, but I’m not just saying that because he is their leading scorer. In road games this season, Scheyer has turned the ball over more frequently on the road, and his shooting percentages are way down. He is a player that can make things happen even if he is having an off night shooting, but on the road it is like he plays too fast and out of control at some points. Scheyer vs Vazquez, on both ends of the court, will decide this game.
Vazquez, as cocky as he may be, is a good scorer and overall player. He is criticized for “ball hogging”, but he is far and away their best offensive player, so why not? This fact is why Duke has been successful against Maryland lately. Duke has won 5 straight, and it’s because of their great team defense. They do not allow for one player to beat them one-on-one like a lot of clubs. If Vazquez is forced to win this game by himself tonight, game over. Duke will win. If he can get others involved (like he is capable of doing: averaging over 6 assists per game), then he will make life tough on the Devils. Milbourne and Hayes have to help Vazquez out in this one. Their shooting ability will open up lanes for Vazquez to drive and create. A few weeks ago, Milbourne and Hayes couldn’t hit the ocean if they fell out of a boat, combing for 10 pts on 4-13 shooting (0’fer from 3). Now, I am not naïve enough to expect that kind of a performance again, because Maryland shoots nearly 43% from 3 at home, and that simply stems from confidence.
If this is a high scoring game Maryland will win simply because they do not go through cold streaks at home. If Duke can control tempo and keep the Terps in the 60’s they will win. If Duke can stick to their game plan and get to the rim to draw fouls they will be successful. FT shooting was the difference in the game a few weeks ago where Duke was +10 FTM in the game. Tonight will be no different. Duke must get to the line in order to win, bottom line. It is hard for me to overlook the past meetings between the clubs. They pretty much have the same rosters, yet Duke has dominated the last few years. I’m not saying that Duke has their number because I think it is going to be a good one tonight. Duke just poses more matchup problems for Maryland than Maryland does for Duke. So adding all this up, I still think the line is about right for this one. Duke is the better team on a neutral court, but with Maryland’s home court advantage and Duke’s ability to anemically on offense, it could go either way. Not to beat a dead horse, but the first 8 minutes will be key. I expect both teams to come out hot, but I just don’t know if it will be enough for the Blue Devils due to their one cold streak they are certain to hit. As much as it pains me to say this, my lean for this game as a bettor is Maryland SU, so as a fan of Duke I will by laying off this one. Whichever way the game turns out, I do not expect either team to win by more than 4-5. I capped the game at 78-74 Maryland.
Thoughts? Criticism?
I’ll start with the Blue Devils. Duke has found their stride again winning their last 8, 4 of which have been on the road. The emergence of Zoubek inside has made the difference. I’m not sure where this came from, but he is averaging over 10 rebounds per game in his last 4 conference games including a double-double, 17 rebound performance against these same Terrapins a few weeks back. His presence on the offensive glass has been huge. With the multitude of shooter the Devils have, they will make you pay more times than not for giving them a second chance. Along with Zoubek, Kyle Singler has also come along and has been the player everyone knew he could be. He has found his stroke from the outside, which just makes this team all the more dangerous.
The Terrapins have wound down there regular season on a high as well, and what better way to cap it off than a victory against the hated Blue Devils. The crowd will be rockin’ and everyone will be pumped. Maryland has won 5 straight since their loss to Duke, and have played very well. Maryland is a different animal at home where they shoot over 50% from the field and are averaging 84 ppg. On top of that, their defense plays much better, holding opponents to 37% shooting and most importantly they hold opponents to 32% from behind the arc. Their perimeter defense is successful because they have athletes on the wings that are long and can contest shots. If Duke is reliant on the 3 tonight for all of its offense they will be in trouble. In other words, they have to get to the rim. Maryland lacks size in the middle, which was apparent in Cameron.
While Duke dominated Maryland in the first meeting, do not expect the same tonight. Gary Williams is a great coach, and believe me he will have corrected the problems from a few weeks ago and have his Terps ready to play. A more accurate representation of tonight’s game is the second half of the last game. It was close, and Maryland fought to come back, but it was just too much in the end. The key for Duke will be can they survive the first 8 minutes. I expect Maryland to come out red hot like they do most times at home. If Duke gets down early, they will not be able get back. Watching every game this year, Duke is a team where once they are down, game plans go out the window and they start jacking up shots from the outside. When they fall they are fine, but if they hit a cold streak it could be over by half.
So what will win this game for either side? Duke’s defense or lack there of. Maryland will want to get into a running game because they play with such confidence at home. Duke on the other hand, will not necessarily look to slow the game completely, but more play efficient basketball. Duke’s defense has let them down a bit on the road, but not as much as their offense. The home/road splits are alarming. I’m not going to spout them off because I’m not here to insult anyone’s intelligence. Everyone knows Duke struggles on the road. John Scheyer will be key tonight for Duke as well. Now I know some of you may be thinking, “No Sh*t!”, but I’m not just saying that because he is their leading scorer. In road games this season, Scheyer has turned the ball over more frequently on the road, and his shooting percentages are way down. He is a player that can make things happen even if he is having an off night shooting, but on the road it is like he plays too fast and out of control at some points. Scheyer vs Vazquez, on both ends of the court, will decide this game.
Vazquez, as cocky as he may be, is a good scorer and overall player. He is criticized for “ball hogging”, but he is far and away their best offensive player, so why not? This fact is why Duke has been successful against Maryland lately. Duke has won 5 straight, and it’s because of their great team defense. They do not allow for one player to beat them one-on-one like a lot of clubs. If Vazquez is forced to win this game by himself tonight, game over. Duke will win. If he can get others involved (like he is capable of doing: averaging over 6 assists per game), then he will make life tough on the Devils. Milbourne and Hayes have to help Vazquez out in this one. Their shooting ability will open up lanes for Vazquez to drive and create. A few weeks ago, Milbourne and Hayes couldn’t hit the ocean if they fell out of a boat, combing for 10 pts on 4-13 shooting (0’fer from 3). Now, I am not naïve enough to expect that kind of a performance again, because Maryland shoots nearly 43% from 3 at home, and that simply stems from confidence.
If this is a high scoring game Maryland will win simply because they do not go through cold streaks at home. If Duke can control tempo and keep the Terps in the 60’s they will win. If Duke can stick to their game plan and get to the rim to draw fouls they will be successful. FT shooting was the difference in the game a few weeks ago where Duke was +10 FTM in the game. Tonight will be no different. Duke must get to the line in order to win, bottom line. It is hard for me to overlook the past meetings between the clubs. They pretty much have the same rosters, yet Duke has dominated the last few years. I’m not saying that Duke has their number because I think it is going to be a good one tonight. Duke just poses more matchup problems for Maryland than Maryland does for Duke. So adding all this up, I still think the line is about right for this one. Duke is the better team on a neutral court, but with Maryland’s home court advantage and Duke’s ability to anemically on offense, it could go either way. Not to beat a dead horse, but the first 8 minutes will be key. I expect both teams to come out hot, but I just don’t know if it will be enough for the Blue Devils due to their one cold streak they are certain to hit. As much as it pains me to say this, my lean for this game as a bettor is Maryland SU, so as a fan of Duke I will by laying off this one. Whichever way the game turns out, I do not expect either team to win by more than 4-5. I capped the game at 78-74 Maryland.
Thoughts? Criticism?
Nice write-up
