if you have any rules that you use to make your picks i would love to hear them.
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1. don't chase losses use kelly 5 percent or less no exeception
2. don't take any ml of -200 or greater; take runline/puckline if i love the heavy favorites (baseball hockey) in basketball avoid them period.
3. avoid giving double digit points
4. when betting national broadcasted games think strongly about taking contrarian approach in large one sided betting games.
5. otherwise avoid national broadcast games
6. smaller colleges oftentimes hide values; especially if you're getting points
7. when a key player on team is injured don't bet against that team the first game (if anything take that team)
8 vegas generally overvalue home teams slightly except when playing big public teams.
9. dime line or better
10. never buy points or parley/teaseComment -
I agree with most all of these hands down.1. don't chase losses use kelly 5 percent or less no exeception
2. don't take any ml of -200 or greater; take runline/puckline if i love the heavy favorites (baseball hockey) in basketball avoid them period. +1
3. avoid giving double digit points
4. when betting national broadcasted games think strongly about taking contrarian approach in large one sided betting games.
5. otherwise avoid national broadcast games
6. smaller colleges oftentimes hide values; especially if you're getting points +1
7. when a key player on team is injured don't bet against that team the first game (if anything take that team) (The Dean Smith Rule
)
8 vegas generally overvalue home teams slightly except when playing big public teams.
9. dime line or better
10. never buy points or parley/tease +1
In addition, I almost never 'protect' my bet with a halftime play if the game isn't going how I'd like. I screw myself 99% of the time.
Oh, and don't lose. That's a rule I like
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never place two bets on one game in a parlay. (e.g. don't take the spread and the o/u)
don't bet road favs on b2b.
usually don't bet with the public, unless it's a good team playing an awful team.(rule doesn't apply always.)
on high spreads, if the public is betting on the dog to cover it will usually go the other way.
2h bets will either go over if the line seems low for that team. normally on a high spread take the losing team as the winning team tends to relax with a big lead. if the game is close take the better team as they will want to blow up the scoring in the second half.Comment -
Don't let hope override logic and numbersComment -
Not trying to contradict this one, but 'go with your gut, don't try to find numbers to convince you you're wrong'.
If I have a good feeling for a game, I'll end up digging in really deep and find some series of stats to make me question it and end up burning myself for I knew to already be true.
But like gwiz said, you can't 'wish' it to happen.Comment -
There's a ton of good stuff in this post. The only thing I might disagree with is the National Broadcast game avoidance. I prefer to treat it like any game. If there's an angle, I bet it. And if I bet it stick I make sure to use the same unit size. Call it the anti-Superbowl theory.Comment -
If one team is a favorite of 20+ and you havent heard of either team take the dog. Sounds stupid but it never fails meComment -
And I love the rule of never betting on a team lower than -200. I see guys who do parlays of teams at -700 and they always lose. They arent worth the valueComment -
watever i think is goin to hit i click my bet and then i change it right before i click confirmComment -
before taking a -700 team ask your self if the two teams play 7 times would would that team really win 8 and lose 1 because that's what's it's going to take JUST to break even. For example (and this is ridiculous) the Miami Heat played the Dallas Mavericks being -700 favorite today. If they play 8 times in Dallas would Mavericks really go 8-1? Would even the nets/clippers go 1-8 in Dallas? and even that is just for breaking even.(they have to go 7-0 or 14-1 just to win 1 measly unit) and i've been victimized before by an -700 bailout "all in" play before and i can tell you that vegas loves it when someone does that.Comment -
Don't bet with your heart, bet with your brain. Meaning don't bet on your favorite teams.
And I often struggle to follow this.Comment -
When a bet seems like a sure thing, it probably will lose.Comment -
Some of my largest takes have been by breaking those rules!
But I do understand that there must be some guidelines.
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When in doubt, rub one out.Comment -
stick to straight wagers. thats from mi experience ive never had success parlaying and have never put down a parlay since probably 5, 6 yrs ago...once in a while maybeComment -
if you follow a poster on the board, dont go back to the thread and blame them...after all the follower did not care to try to handicap the game nor did the poster put a gun to the followers head and say place the bet or else.
Also learn to come up with a system...everyone has a system on how to evaluate a game, (regardless of the people that bash systems). Back test that previous data. If cant find places to back test, join a good poster board and ask. We all help each other out.
With that being said, a person who is committed to handicapping game must always look to improve their system of handicapping. Also the better should also be open to discovering a new system which can improve wagering results.
kinda reminds me of learning how to ride a bike, at first it was shaky and feel alot but after a while it got easier.Comment
