looking at syracuse-gtown

gwiz · 02-18-10, 05:05 AM

going from memory of the last game and it will be biased since it cost me a profitable day

gtown started out hot as snot from the outside but after a few misses got gunshy

they were completely unable to get the ball into the paint which eventually lead to them getting perimeter passes stolen

which led to easy points for syracuse,starting the snowball

awhile back I read thompson talking about how his team is mature and has good chemistry

(might have been one of the things that lead me to like them that day)

one of the keys for gtown in this game has to be to find a way to get the ball down low

after the game my buddy said to me all they did was stand and pass the ball to each other on the outside

and I had to agree,it was one of the weirdest things I have ever seen in a game

I am opposite of most I would lean to the home team in this one

I don't think gtown will be afraid to go to the paint on their own floor

and the way the refs called the first game favored the home team IMBO and expect the same in this one

(possible delusion)

syracuse had 9 fouls called on them in the first game to gtowns 20

now maybe that's just because they were the stronger team

the block numbers are a possible indicator of their dominance

Reed Harris · 02-18-10, 05:14 AM

Syracuse is the more talented team and should bounce back after their recent loss.

gwiz · 02-18-10, 05:29 AM

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/espn360/schedule?

replay of the first game is on espn360 under replays Jan 25

you have to go back 30 days under the replay tab

gwiz · 02-18-10, 05:32 AM

Originally posted by Reed Harris

Syracuse is the more talented team and should bounce back after their recent loss.

should is the key word

gtown should get a more evenly called game on their own floor

gtown should be more comfortable in a home environment

if we could only figure out what will happen we would be millionaires

2daBank · 02-18-10, 05:33 AM

starting to like g-town, just because im getting the feeling everyone likes cuse

gwiz · 02-18-10, 05:33 AM

syracuse starts the first game with 2 turnovers one forced one unforced

2daBank · 02-18-10, 05:34 AM

its a very scientific method i use....cap the game then after im done throw that shit out and just go against the grain

gwiz · 02-18-10, 05:36 AM

home team has won the last 5 meetings

gwiz · 02-18-10, 05:37 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

its a very scientific method i use....cap the game then after im done throw that shit out and just go against the grain

gwiz · 02-18-10, 05:40 AM

just a thought and I could be wrong but if syracuse was the better team wouldn't they play man to man defense

isn't the zone a way of balancing the fact you aren't as talented ?

2daBank · 02-18-10, 05:42 AM

not true with cuse as there coach is just a believer in that defense always has been, not sure why but it certainly has nothing to do with talent level

gwiz · 02-18-10, 05:53 AM

scouting the first game

syracuse is better on fastbreaks and they seem to get each other shots

georgetown has an advantage on the defensive perimeter

syracuse is/did rotate and help on defense really good

gtown doesn't have a paint presence on offense

very ugly,no one even tries to post up they just stand 10 feet from the hoop near the baseline waiting for a pass

and if they get it they were doubled quick

15 minutes into the game before gtown got post up points

gwiz · 02-18-10, 05:56 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

not true with cuse as there coach is just a believer in that defense always has been, not sure why but it certainly has nothing to do with talent level

thanks bank

I like it

seems to promote a better team concept for some reason in my mind

not so much weight on one guys shoulders

jeffbuff73 · 02-18-10, 05:58 AM

Syracuse is the better team, front to back! No question about it. The 2-3 zone is signature from boeheim and has been for years, he rarely plays man-to-man. Its just tough to win on the road in the Big East and Gtown is pretty dominate at their place. They spanked Duke pretty bad there just recently and also Villanova. I think Syracuse will bounce back tonight after that loss to Louisville and steal one here. Remember, Syracuse has not lost a game all year on the road. And they have played some tough teams. For some reason, they have been better away rather than at home. Syracuse ML for me! GL either way.....

2daBank · 02-18-10, 06:09 AM

jeff no offense but your avatar screams biased opinion on this 1

gwiz · 02-18-10, 06:22 AM

that's ok biased unbiased it's all just opinion

watching the first game it is awfully close but I give a edge to syracuse for being able to defend the paint and creating shots for their teammates

in my mind these are critical to efficiency

2daBank · 02-18-10, 06:27 AM

thats because Monroe is a pussy....when he feels like it he can dominate, unfortunately as i said he is a pussy and the zone more then likely makes it real easy for him to disappear and drift out to the perimeter....i give john thomson the 30th or whatever enough credit that maybe he lights a fire under Monroe and puts him in the high post against the 2-3 where he should be a fukkin nightmare for cuse

gwiz · 02-18-10, 06:29 AM

I prefer concrete basketball fundamentals to numbers anyday of the week

I would be much better at this if I could scout teams out by watching previous games

is it possible to make adjustments to overcome the fact that you just aren't as good when it comes to getting the ball in the hole

I started my lean with 2 concepts that I don't know if they hold enough weight to overcome the fundamental differences that I see on the floor

I can't stress enough how much better syracuse is at assisting for points

2daBank · 02-18-10, 06:33 AM

my problem with numbers is thats essentially how they set the line and to think that looking at numbers can somehow give me a edge when im sure the oddsmakers know the numbers as well as me probably more so...makes me believe im better off recording every game possible and running through as many as i can...of coarse i look at numbers but i prefer to put them to life

gwiz · 02-18-10, 06:38 AM

exactly,IMO the ideal number for them doesn't draw even action it gives both teams a mathmatically equal chance at covering

and only when the money starts pouring in do they make adjustments

kenty - miss.st was a good example

they could have opened at -5 but that wouldn't give kentucky as good a chance at covering as -3

gwiz · 02-18-10, 06:40 AM

pomeroy has gtown winning tonights game 73-72 with a 51% chance of winning

so this game doesn't even really need a line it is a tossup to begin with

a bookies dream

2daBank · 02-18-10, 06:43 AM

not always true imo books set a lot of lines based off public perception looking to draw 1 sided action..

2daBank · 02-18-10, 06:43 AM

i dont care what they say

gwiz · 02-18-10, 06:44 AM

bobby knight qoute

"action is faster than reaction

offense is faster than defense"

just want to share that

2daBank · 02-18-10, 06:45 AM

Pomeroy is great, not big into using for pickin winners...honestly have no idea how accurate game scores are....i do love the numbers though and take his rankings way more serious than anyone else

2daBank · 02-18-10, 06:47 AM

Originally posted by gwiz

bobby knight qoute

"action is faster than reaction

offense is faster than defense"

just want to share that

Bob Night is a great man....

2daBank · 02-18-10, 06:51 AM

its still early but i see a lot of games with 1 side getting hit at a high clip.....very exciting

gwiz · 02-18-10, 06:59 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

not always true imo books set a lot of lines based off public perception looking to draw 1 sided action..

you really think they want one sided action,that seems dangerous to me

I just don't see how they can risk playing mind games vs millions of minds

if they can I think that says a lot about our collective intelligence

I look at sagarin power ratings and the number is generally right where it is suppose to be

I agree they make adjustments but doubt they make to many assumptions

I would say that they simply skew the number slightly when they have a

team that gets a lot of betting action vs a team nobody bets on

if you are correct though

isn't the assumption, true or not, that syracuse is the better team

sagarin power rating says they are a 90 to gtowns 87 without a HC adjustment

so if they wanted equal action wouldn't they would set syracuse at -2 maybe -3

IMO they think that gives gtown to much of an edge to the line

they are legitmately favoring gtown in this game the way I read it

which just seems weird considering how when I watch this game they are just the better team.

gwiz · 02-18-10, 07:01 AM

gtown is the team that will need to make adjustments

both on offense and defense

2daBank · 02-18-10, 07:04 AM

yes sir i do on select games i think they gamble......and yes i have no faith in this so called collective intelligence you speak of as i feel most ppl are just slightly above retarded and very predictable...seriously when the lines come out how hard is it to pick the side most ppl will be on? not very

2daBank · 02-18-10, 07:06 AM

collective intelligence....you got way more faith in humanity than i do my friend

The Silver Fox · 02-18-10, 07:13 AM

gtown scores more pts at home and both teams are top 5 in FG%... Im leaning over 144. What u guys think..

2daBank · 02-18-10, 07:15 AM

someone made a point to me that he felt both teams would bring defensive intensity off of both there losses, made sense to me but i rarely play totals

The Silver Fox · 02-18-10, 07:24 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

someone made a point to me that he felt both teams would bring defensive intensity off of both there losses, made sense to me but i rarely play totals

This is a good point. I got some more work to do on this one before I make it a play. BTW, great avatar