Post your pick of the day with a write-up...

[Ranx777]

UNDERVALUED CHALK #6 IN A ROW!

WAKE FOREST -1.5 @ NC State

I got the line already at 1.5. -2 is just fine too because this line is a joke. Wake is coming off a loss. NC State is 2-10 in conference play. They have lost 7 of 8, with their only win coming at home vs North Carolina Central, they have 1 home conference win, vs Duke, impressive huh? Fluke! NC State averages 68 points per game, they scored 88 that game, shot 32 of 55 from the field. Plus that game was when they had something to play for, now they dont, and it will show, just as it did in the second half of the Maryland game. Wake Forest has not dominated on the road, which is why this is such great value. If NC State wins this game, it will be MUCH more of an upset then 1.5. Wake has a ton to play for, can't afford these bad losses anymore. NC State can't score with Wake, Wake dropped 83 on Va Tech and should of won that game. Talk about home cookin, Tech made 32 of 47 FREE THROWS! Wake only shot 27 free throws. They don't play another game for 7 days. Wake is going to win this game by 7-9 points minimum for the 6th consecutive cover for me.

[linedrivr]

I'm on Wake as well. I couldnt find any reason to take NC State when going over the stats. like you said, their one big conf win at home over Duke was a fluke. the line looks way off and maybe Vegas knows something we don't but I'm taking the better team here in Wake. let's cash this one.

[Booga36]

gl luck guys, im with you all the way.

[Peregrine Stoop]

Illini +12.5 @ Purdue
-fading recent form
-stat junkies have the game at about 11

[Ranx777]

Wake Forest, wow, scored 92 then 75 then 83 and then 54? I guess thats what happens when u shoot 0 of 12 from 3! That is 0% for u non math majors out there. Wake even shot 14 more field goals for the game, only shot 34% overall, terrible. On to today though...

VILLANOVA -2.5 @ PITT

Again I am going to stick with the theme of scoring points here. Pitt cannot score with Villanova. Pitt is a tough team but when it comes t to scoring spurts, they cannot hang in this one. Do not be mistaken about Pitt's last 2 games, West Virginia should have been them by 3+, and while the Marquette win was nice, a 58 point scoring performance will get them beat by double digits in this one. Nova has had 6 days to think about their loss to UCONN, they will be well prepared for this one. Just as they bounced back from their loss to G-Town with a road victory at West Va by 7, the same thing can be expected today. Granted Pitt is 14-1 at home, but looking a little deeper u can see, they needed OT to beat Louisville and West Va, LOST to Georgetown at home, and their other home wins in conference were St. Johns, Depaul and Seton Hall. In their last game vs Marquette, Pitt only attempted 42 field goals, luckily making 54% of them, Marquette got off 60 FGs, only making 35%. I feel their last 2 wins have been more the other team losing the game, then Pitt actually winning, today they will run into a focused NOVA squad that will prove a point that. NOVA will take this one, opening it up with a 2nd half spurt.

[whatsgood5]

Duke -13, will post blog link next post for anyone who wants to read, don't wanna post 500+ words here

[whatsgood5]

http://whatsgood5.mysbrforum.com/blog/14182-why-virginia-tech-will-exposed-sunday.html

[Peregrine Stoop]

Duke -12.5 -110 v V Tech
-V Tech wins on drawing fouls, offensive boards, perimeter defense, and overall physicalness. Good luck doing that to the white boys in Cameron.

[Ranx777]

2 game losing streak ends tonight, period. Wake and Nova forgot how to put the ball in the basket tonight. Something my team tonight should not have trouble doing.

Georgia Southern +9.5 @ Samford

Let's forget the records in this one, not a true indication of where these teams are right now. Samford nowhere near 9 points better than GA Southern, if better at all at this point. This line is only so big because of Southern's 0-15 road record. Within the last month, Southern has wins over App state, Citadel, Furman and just most recently took conference leading Wofford into Overtime, granted all at home, but again showing us this team is not 9 points worse than a Samford. Samford has one more conference win, but has not beaten a team in conference that has a winning record. Add in the fact they average 12 less points per game on the year and this game will probably go down to the wire. Samford has not scored above 60 points in ANY of their last 8 games, so if they do reach 60, Georgia Southern would have to score 50, which is 19 points below their season average, not happening, close game here folks.

[Booga36]

GL Ranx, let's get back on track tonite..

[mangina11]

He didnt get back on track, he drove the damn train across the country with that pick and analysis!! I LOVE THIS THREAD BABYYYYY

[whatsgood5]

pick of the day already lost, Knicks

[whatsgood5]

In case ya wannas see where I went wrong

http://whatsgood5.mysbrforum.com/blog/14240-why-new-look-knicks-will-roll-monday-night.html

[Ranx777]

Mangina, hopefully u jumped on Georgia Southern last night. And hopefully driving the train across the tracks is a good thing lol

[mangina11]

Mangina, hopefully u jumped on Georgia Southern last night. And hopefully driving the train across the tracks is a good thing lol

Yea i was on it!! Love reading your in depth write ups, and Booga wanted you to get back on the right track and i was just saying you nailed that pick, what are ya leanin on today?

[Peregrine Stoop]

Michigan -3 -110 v Illinois
-Michigan will employ a zone that overplays on McCamey like the Buckeyes did

[whatsgood5]

OKC Thunder minus the points, link coming next post

[whatsgood5]

http://whatsgood5.mysbrforum.com/blog/14306-why-durant-westbrook-will-lead-okc-a-victory.html

[Ranx777]

Yes I do write in depth analysis backing up my picks, but the eye test is the ultimate handicapping tool, as well as the flow of the game. I am not a big over/under handicapper because the randomness of the game situation at the end of games can sometimes throw the analysis out the window. Check the scoring the log of South Carolina vs Florida a few weeks back if u don't know what I mean lol. With that said, my pick today...

Kansas State/Texas Tech UNDER 157

I watch A LOT of K State basketball. Big 12 basketball as well. Texas Tech should hang around in this game. K State's last game vs OU went under this total, and they scored 48 in the second half. Clemente was ON FIRE. He can be that hot and this game still might go under. T Tech has been playing better defense as of late. Only 2 of their last 6 opponents have gotten to 80, that doesnt sound that impressive but when you consider the fact that one 1 of K State's road games has gone over 157, we are simply playing the odds here. Odds are these teams are not both getting to 80. K State vs Colorado was the only KSU road game that went over 157 and an ASTONISHING 94 free throws were shot in that game. The refs put that game over. I expect an inspired defensive performance here by T Tech and I expect K State to struggle with revenge against Missouri on their minds for Saturday. K State's game vs Nebraska last week, drove this total up WAY TOO HIGH, Nebraska hit 14 of 21 three pointers, K state had to score 90 just to win, they hit 9 threes themselves and hit 32 of 40 FT's. Like I said, odds are this game goes under 157, just like 7 of KSU's last 8 non-overtime games have. Expect a similar final to what Texas and Texas Tech had just a few days ago. Teams get in the 70's here, neither hits 80. UNDER is the play tonight.

[OverUnder]

I like the under too. Points coming your way if it hits.

[Ranx777]

K State was dominant tonight. So dominant, I got another W ATS.

[MStein12]

Jea!

[Ranx777]

One of my favorite cards of the year thus far. And I have a game I LOVE. Will probably be posting 3 write-ups throughout the day.

[Wolf40]

Nice. looking forward to it!

[mangina11]

I think I just got hard, winning money does. That to me

[Ranx777]

Out of all the games I have posted thus far. I am MOST confident in this one. Call it what u want, and I always recommend laying the same amount on every game, but double this bet, triple this bet, whatever. It is a winner.

NC Greensboro +14 @ Davidson

Seriously, a joke of a line. Davidson is 1-2 in there last 3 games. Including just losing outright to Tennessee Chatt. And a blowout loss by 22 points at Wofford. Davidson has had trouble scoring lately, and is progressively getting worse. Greensboro is getting better. Davidson has only scored over 62 points in 2 of their last 5 games. It is really the last 3 games that bother me though, where they have truly looked bad. Greensboro on the other hand, is coming off a win at RED HOT Citadel. Citadel was favored by 10, and Greensboro won by 6. That line was off by 16 points and this one is off by double digits as well. Greensboro before beating Citadel, gave Elon, another team who is MUCH better now all they could handle at Elon, losing by 5. Lost to App State by 6, Western Carolina by 5. App State and Western Carolina both holding better records than Davidson.

It is obvious teams change throughout the year, but sometime these lines just dont catch up quick enough. Greensboro is 5-11 in conference, not great at all, but how many times have they lost by more than 14? Twice. Both to conference leading Wofford, who is 13-3 in conference and who just CRUSHED Davidson by 22. Greensboro's losses to Wofford were by 17 and 18. Nothing to be proud of, but again with the proven fact that Davidson is no where near as good as the top team in the conference, they would need EVERTHING to turn around and go right, just to win this game by 10. If we had Greensboro at +8, I would still feel like that is a pretty good line. It sounds very simple, but like a wrote in an earlier post in this same thread that San Diego had 0% chance of winning a game against St Mary's as a 7 point dog, and that is not often said. Greensboro has a legit shot at WINNING this game as a 14 point dog, and that is not often said either. 14 is WAAAY too many points here, TAKE THEM and Cash in an easy winner with NC Greensboro.

[sorge6]

i thought the same thing as soon as i saw todays card.. excellent analysis my man

[Peregrine Stoop]

Minnesota +3 -110 v Purdue
-no one realizes Minny is good

[Booga36]

Nice info Ranx, I'm in..

[HSP]

Russia/Canada 7pm est OVER 5.5

The two most skilled teams in the tournament, the two tournament favorites, fighting to survive and still have a chance at a medal. Think there might be some jump in the skates for this one, maybe a bust of energy from the Russians?

Evgeni Malkin will center a line with Ovechkin and Alexander Semin, with a second line Ilya Kovalchuk, Pavel Datsyuk and Maxim Afinogenov. That is a lot of fire power for just one team, and that is just the Russians line up. Canada coach Mike Babcock has found line combinations that worked. In the 8-2 win against Germany, each line had a goal, led by the line of Sidney Crosby-Jarome Iginla-Eric Staal, which combined for 3 goals, with two of them by Iginla. The Sharks line, the trio of Corey Perry-Ryan Getzlaf-Rick Nash, and the threesome of Mike Richards, Jonathan Toews and Brenden Morrow each had a goal. Once again another team with a lot of fire power!

This matchup reminds me of a Washington Capitals VS Pittsburgh Penguins type of game. It is going to be a shotting affair all game long, especially with the lack of Defense the Russians don't have. This game is going to be a real nail biter and with the game total only at 5.5 makes me wonder why it is not at 6.5 or even 7. Yes, the goalies are outstanding but with so much talent on the ice at once goalies tend to crack here and there.

[gonnakillit]

Penn St. +7.5

Main reason is that Penn St. is finally getting it together and have played in a lot of tight games all year. Coming off two straight road wins now coming home against an Ohio St. team that just won at Michigan St. Vegas sets the line at Ohio St. -7.5 and 70% of the bettors have creamed their pants throwing money at Ohio St.....yet the line has not moved. This will be a close game down to the wire and Penn St. may actually win SU

[Ranx777]

PICK #2 for 2/24 Im sure this will be a popular one, but I am confident in this being a beatdown...again.

Arkansas -1.5 @ LSU

Just in case you live in a cave as far as the handicapping world goes, LSU is WINLESS in the SEC. They are a terrible basketball team. One of the worst, if not the worst of the major conferences. Arkansas is 2-4 on the road in conference, not good but they have not played LSU yet on the road. Arkansas already has wins over Ole' Miss and Georgia on the road. Georgia is one hell of a home team if u didnt know. When Arkansas and LSU met exactly 2 weeks ago... Arkansas would have covered -34.5, thats right, a 35 point beatdown. You know why? LSU can't score the basketball. Arkansas scores a lot, pretty simple huh. Non 3 point shots, Arkansas was a dominant 20 of 38, and they also shot 30 free throws. Arkansas dominated the paint and took the ball to the basket at will, and just because this game is played on a different court, does not mean anything is going to change. Luckily for us, we are basically asked to just pick a winner. Don't let LSU's close game with Miss State scare u away either. Miss State was coming off 2 overtime games, including one just days before at home vs Kentucky, talk about an emotional letdown. That is why they scored 60 points. Arkansas got beat last time out at Auburn, they will not let this one slip away. Arkansas knows if they win this, then take care of Vanderbilt and Ole Miss at home, that will give them 10 conference wins, probably only a good showing away either at Tennesee in the regular season or in the SEC conference tourney, from being in the big dance, if they lose this game, they can kiss all that goodbye. Arkansas outscores LSU tonight, and covers easily.

[BiffTFinancial]

hey, Ranx, love the UNCG pick and great write-up. BOL to you tonight.

[Ranx777]

Seriously Arkansas, 18 first half points lol, they forgot how to do the one thing I said they would do. Can't believe they didnt show up. Easy cover for NC Greensboro though.

[OverUnder]

Great call on UNCG!!!