Neither one of these teams are very good, but Denver on the road is awful. In the last 5 seasons, Denver is 9-66 SU in all road/neutral site games (24-39 ATS in those games). In conference they are 4-41 SU (18-25 ATS). This year is no different where the Pioneers are 1-8 SU on the road with their loan win coming at South Dakota State. At home however, they are a completely different team. The differences in their stats as a home and road team are alarming to say the least. It starts with their leading scorer Nate Rohnert. Rohnert averages only 9.4 ppg on the road compared to 19.5 ppg at home. As a team, Denver is one of the top teams in the country in FG%, but they only shoot 44.9% on the road but the shoot 54% at home. Denver scores 58 ppg on the road compared to 74 ppg at home, and they give up 68 ppg on the road compared to 63.5 ppg at home. Denver is gets 35.6% of their points from 3 point baskets (20th highest in the nation) and they on average attempt 5 more 3’s on the road, but they are shooting 9% lower from 3 on the road (35% away, 44% at home). The Pioneers post a 10 rebound disadvantage on the road as well. Poor rebounding, decreased shooting percentages, and decrease point production usually does not lead to many victories, especially with a team like Denver. According to the Pomeroy rankings, Denver plays the 5th slowest pace in the nation (ranking 343rd). If you add all of these deficiencies together with the slow pace, you generally get a bad road record. Also from Pomeroy, Denver’s defensive efficiency ranking is 310th in the nation. So we have a team with terrible defense, bad offense, and a historically terrible road record vs a MTSU that is not that great either.
MTSU has been better this season than in years past, but they are still not great. Surprisingly, they do not play much better at home than they do on the road so a homecourt advantage is not readily present. Both teams will look to play a slow-paced, defensive game, and it is in this area that MTSU has the advantage. While not great, they are significantly better than Denver. MTSU’s FG% defense is ranked 211th compared to Denver’s ranking of 310. So while MTSU does not have an explosive offense, they should be able to get good looks on Denver’s defense. As you can imagine from looking at Denver’s road records, their trends have been awful this season. MTSU has not been much better, but they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games. On the other hand, they are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 as a favorite and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 at home. One advantage Denver does have in this game is that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 head-to-head meetings.
If you like line movement analysis (like Tomato so kindly alluded to in my Duke/UNC write up yesterday when he bashed my “biased” outlook because I didn’t give info on the numbers) then you would be interested to know that 69% of the public action has been on MTSU yet the line has not moved. Personally, I have never put too much stock in this form of analysis, but it is strange that the line has yet to move with this much action on MTSU. Fans of reverse line movement would say that this means the big money is on Denver, while the basic small time bettors money is on MTSU. For me, this game is all about the eye test. Denver has been awful on the road this season and in years past. The statistics do not lie. They are a poor team overall on the road. However, MTSU is only 4-3 SU at home this season in conference (3-4 ATS). Neither team has much size, so this should be a perimeter oriented game that will be very low scoring. Though MTSU is a smaller team, they do rebound well posting 9.7 offensive rebounds per game. Denver could surprise folks tonight by coming out and scoring like they are capable, so this is not a top play for me. I have been burned a couple of times this year by Denver on the road so my lean is MTSU -5.5. A stronger play for me would be under 122.5. I would be surprised if this game gets much above 105 points.
What does everyone else think? The numbers are pretty convincing for MTSU, but I am not completely sold.
MTSU has been better this season than in years past, but they are still not great. Surprisingly, they do not play much better at home than they do on the road so a homecourt advantage is not readily present. Both teams will look to play a slow-paced, defensive game, and it is in this area that MTSU has the advantage. While not great, they are significantly better than Denver. MTSU’s FG% defense is ranked 211th compared to Denver’s ranking of 310. So while MTSU does not have an explosive offense, they should be able to get good looks on Denver’s defense. As you can imagine from looking at Denver’s road records, their trends have been awful this season. MTSU has not been much better, but they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games. On the other hand, they are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 as a favorite and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 at home. One advantage Denver does have in this game is that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 head-to-head meetings.
If you like line movement analysis (like Tomato so kindly alluded to in my Duke/UNC write up yesterday when he bashed my “biased” outlook because I didn’t give info on the numbers) then you would be interested to know that 69% of the public action has been on MTSU yet the line has not moved. Personally, I have never put too much stock in this form of analysis, but it is strange that the line has yet to move with this much action on MTSU. Fans of reverse line movement would say that this means the big money is on Denver, while the basic small time bettors money is on MTSU. For me, this game is all about the eye test. Denver has been awful on the road this season and in years past. The statistics do not lie. They are a poor team overall on the road. However, MTSU is only 4-3 SU at home this season in conference (3-4 ATS). Neither team has much size, so this should be a perimeter oriented game that will be very low scoring. Though MTSU is a smaller team, they do rebound well posting 9.7 offensive rebounds per game. Denver could surprise folks tonight by coming out and scoring like they are capable, so this is not a top play for me. I have been burned a couple of times this year by Denver on the road so my lean is MTSU -5.5. A stronger play for me would be under 122.5. I would be surprised if this game gets much above 105 points.
What does everyone else think? The numbers are pretty convincing for MTSU, but I am not completely sold.
