Gonzaga Bulldogs look for 20th win of season vs. St. Mary's Gaels
Mark Few and the 'Zags have ruled the West Coast Conference in recent years, and tonight the Bulldogs will be out to reach the 20-win plateau for a 13th-straight season.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are No. 11 in the coaches poll and No. 16 according to the AP rankings. But are they really any good anymore? Or is this just a case of brand-name recognition?
We’re about to find out. On Thursday night, the Bulldogs (19-4 SU, 11-8-1 ATS) will host the St. Mary’s Gaels (21-3 SU, 15-7 ATS) in a battle of the top two teams in the West Coast Conference. The Gaels aren’t anywhere to be found in the rankings, but they have a better record than the ‘Zags, and Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings couldn’t be any closer:
42. Gonzaga (No. 35 offense, No. 65 defense)
43. St. Mary’s (No. 14 offense, No. 105 defense)
Now take a look at the betting odds: Gonzaga was early six-point chalk with a total of 152. Both these West Coast teams have done well at the pay window this year, but this situation is not promising for Bulldog supporters.
The ‘Zags are 3-4 ATS at home this year. St. Mary’s is 8-2 ATS on the road. Gonzaga is also 5-7 ATS as a favorite; the Gaels are 2-0 ATS in the underdog role.
The lead storyline in the MSM for Thursday’s contest (11 p.m. ET, ESPN2) is that the Bulldogs are looking for their 13th consecutive season of at least 20 wins. The Gaels are getting very little ink beyond the fact that they’re in an 0-14 SU tailspin at the McCarthey Athletic Center. This has indeed been a tough matchup for coach Randy Bennett’s boys; they’re 2-8 SU (5-5 ATS) in their past 10 against Gonzaga on any basketball court. And last month, the ‘Zags went down to California and beat St. Mary’s 89-82, covering as 4 ½-point puppies.
This was an amazing display of rebounding by the Bulldogs. Guard Steven Gray and forward Elias Harris combined for 27 rebounds, two more than the entire St. Mary’s roster. All those second chances were very necessary on a day when Gonzaga shot just 30 percent from behind the arc and 54.5 percent from the free-throw line.
These have been sticking points for the ‘Zags all season long. It cost them dearly in last month’s 81-77 overtime loss to the lowly San Francisco Dons (+12 at home), fueled by Gonzaga’s 5-of-18 performance (27.8 percent) from downtown.
So why do the Bulldogs get the free ride in the press and the polls? One, they have indeed been very, very good in recent years – including No. 7 in the Pomeroy rankings last season. And this is a familiar name to the betting public, having been to the NCAA Tournament every year since 1999 with four trips to the Sweet 16 and one to the Elite Eight. This is the program that gave John Stockton to the NBA.
And you could make the psychological argument that “Gonzaga” is just one of those names that’s easy to remember. Radio and TV announcers always seem to say it with a smile. Casual bettors are less likely to know about St. Mary’s existence, let alone its ATS record.
None of this means the Gaels are in a strong position to win this game outright. The matchup problems they had in their first meeting with the ‘Zags are still in play. While St. Mary’s features a very strong backcourt of Mickey McConnell (13.8 points, 5.3 assists per game; 52.9 percent from long range) and Matthew Dellavedova (12.5 points, 4.8 assists, 41.0 percent), the loss of senior guard Wayne Hunter (11.0 points, 39.1 percent) for the season leaves the Gaels with a rather thin seven-man rotation.
This becomes even more problematic should center Omar Samhan (21.7 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.0 blocks) get into foul trouble. And opponents aren’t scared to take the ball straight to the rack against Samhan; St. Mary’s leads all Division I teams with 65.2 percent of their shots against coming from two-point territory.
So the ‘Zags have reason to believe they’ll get win No. 20 Thursday night. Grabbing the cash? We’ll see.
Mark Few and the 'Zags have ruled the West Coast Conference in recent years, and tonight the Bulldogs will be out to reach the 20-win plateau for a 13th-straight season.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are No. 11 in the coaches poll and No. 16 according to the AP rankings. But are they really any good anymore? Or is this just a case of brand-name recognition?
We’re about to find out. On Thursday night, the Bulldogs (19-4 SU, 11-8-1 ATS) will host the St. Mary’s Gaels (21-3 SU, 15-7 ATS) in a battle of the top two teams in the West Coast Conference. The Gaels aren’t anywhere to be found in the rankings, but they have a better record than the ‘Zags, and Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings couldn’t be any closer:
42. Gonzaga (No. 35 offense, No. 65 defense)
43. St. Mary’s (No. 14 offense, No. 105 defense)
Now take a look at the betting odds: Gonzaga was early six-point chalk with a total of 152. Both these West Coast teams have done well at the pay window this year, but this situation is not promising for Bulldog supporters.
The ‘Zags are 3-4 ATS at home this year. St. Mary’s is 8-2 ATS on the road. Gonzaga is also 5-7 ATS as a favorite; the Gaels are 2-0 ATS in the underdog role.
The lead storyline in the MSM for Thursday’s contest (11 p.m. ET, ESPN2) is that the Bulldogs are looking for their 13th consecutive season of at least 20 wins. The Gaels are getting very little ink beyond the fact that they’re in an 0-14 SU tailspin at the McCarthey Athletic Center. This has indeed been a tough matchup for coach Randy Bennett’s boys; they’re 2-8 SU (5-5 ATS) in their past 10 against Gonzaga on any basketball court. And last month, the ‘Zags went down to California and beat St. Mary’s 89-82, covering as 4 ½-point puppies.
This was an amazing display of rebounding by the Bulldogs. Guard Steven Gray and forward Elias Harris combined for 27 rebounds, two more than the entire St. Mary’s roster. All those second chances were very necessary on a day when Gonzaga shot just 30 percent from behind the arc and 54.5 percent from the free-throw line.
These have been sticking points for the ‘Zags all season long. It cost them dearly in last month’s 81-77 overtime loss to the lowly San Francisco Dons (+12 at home), fueled by Gonzaga’s 5-of-18 performance (27.8 percent) from downtown.
So why do the Bulldogs get the free ride in the press and the polls? One, they have indeed been very, very good in recent years – including No. 7 in the Pomeroy rankings last season. And this is a familiar name to the betting public, having been to the NCAA Tournament every year since 1999 with four trips to the Sweet 16 and one to the Elite Eight. This is the program that gave John Stockton to the NBA.
And you could make the psychological argument that “Gonzaga” is just one of those names that’s easy to remember. Radio and TV announcers always seem to say it with a smile. Casual bettors are less likely to know about St. Mary’s existence, let alone its ATS record.
None of this means the Gaels are in a strong position to win this game outright. The matchup problems they had in their first meeting with the ‘Zags are still in play. While St. Mary’s features a very strong backcourt of Mickey McConnell (13.8 points, 5.3 assists per game; 52.9 percent from long range) and Matthew Dellavedova (12.5 points, 4.8 assists, 41.0 percent), the loss of senior guard Wayne Hunter (11.0 points, 39.1 percent) for the season leaves the Gaels with a rather thin seven-man rotation.
This becomes even more problematic should center Omar Samhan (21.7 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.0 blocks) get into foul trouble. And opponents aren’t scared to take the ball straight to the rack against Samhan; St. Mary’s leads all Division I teams with 65.2 percent of their shots against coming from two-point territory.
So the ‘Zags have reason to believe they’ll get win No. 20 Thursday night. Grabbing the cash? We’ll see.
