Dukeblue 2/9

rake922 · 02-09-10, 08:25 AM

w kentucky is the best one

Dukebluejms · 02-09-10, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by rake922

w kentucky is the best one

I like that one too. Houston has been underachieving this year and the W. Kent is tough at home.

pokerpro44 · 02-09-10, 09:10 AM

i like wake

Big Dave's Picks · 02-09-10, 09:31 AM

Hey DukeBlue goodmorning 6in. of snow here KY. Therefore, now excuse for me today not to win every game I play tonight. I like your early leans thus far and look forward to reading your writeups throughout the day and seeing your heavy plays for the day. Georgetown, and Colorado St. have to be the two I like the most, especially the RLM for Colo. St. as Air Force opened as -1. Also have great interest in Western KY. I think they might have things rolling again as Houston is not strong on the road and Diddle Arena is 1 of the toughest in the Sun Belt Conf. Also lean on George Mason, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt. Hopefully we will have the same opinions today. I will probably taill your picks tonight b/c I need a strong night. That being said BOL today with your research and look forward to working together and winning some cash. How did you do last night, Just Curious? I had CofC and they killed me. Thanks Again Big Dave

oiler · 02-09-10, 09:34 AM

i like michigan state alot

Dukebluejms · 02-09-10, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by Big Dave's Picks

Hey DukeBlue goodmorning 6in. of snow here KY. Therefore, now excuse for me today not to win every game I play tonight. I like your early leans thus far and look forward to reading your writeups throughout the day and seeing your heavy plays for the day. Georgetown, and Colorado St. have to be the two I like the most, especially the RLM for Colo. St. as Air Force opened as -1. Also have great interest in Western KY. I think they might have things rolling again as Houston is not strong on the road and Diddle Arena is 1 of the toughest in the Sun Belt Conf. Also lean on George Mason, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt. Hopefully we will have the same opinions today. I will probably taill your picks tonight b/c I need a strong night. That being said BOL today with your research and look forward to working together and winning some cash. How did you do last night, Just Curious? I had CofC and they killed me. Thanks Again Big Dave

3-2. I went with CoC against my better judgment and got bitten. Also Texas screwed me. They are real bad. I'm working on my writeups now.

Dukebluejms · 02-09-10, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by oiler

i like michigan state alot

Yeah. Looking for a rebound game. Purdue is tough, but MSU is even tougher at home. Love Spartie here.

Dukebluejms · 02-09-10, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by pokerpro44

i like wake

Just got done capping that one and while I still like Wake I'm not sure if I'll play it. BC has been playing well as of late and Wake has struggle putting people away this year.

kboiler · 02-09-10, 10:59 AM

If Kalin Lucas doesn't play tonight versus Purdue, MSU is going to struggle to win, much less cover. Purdue has its starting point guard back, Lewis Jackson, and all are healthy. If Purdue can win, it can pull into a tie for first place in the Big Ten. Purdue has historically played well at the Breslin Center including two years ago without our best player. This is going to be a great game, hinging on whether lucas plays.

I obviously won't make a play on the game due to my fanaticism, but BOL to everyone tonight.
Go Boilers.

ezmoney · 02-09-10, 01:31 PM

Easy winner!!!

Originally posted by oiler

i like michigan state alot

LOVE the SPARTANS, why is line moving down to 2 ? Vegas wants you on
Purdue, Purdue has not won there last 5 trys, MICH St has won last 18
in a row at home.

EZ

Dukebluejms · 02-09-10, 02:18 PM

1.Georgetown -4 @ Providence:
The line for this game leads me to think that the line makers believe G’town is in for a let down tonight after their big win against Nova. It is not entirely out of the question because they got caught with their pants down after they beat Duke and lost at home to USF. I personally believe that loss to USF will help them here because they should come out ready to play. Everyone knows how well G’town has been playing, but the majority of their great play has been at home this season. Although they have played a lot of tough games on the road, they still seem like a different team. The Hoyas are just 1-3 SU in their last 4 road conference games this season, but those were to Syracuse, Pitt, Marquette, and Nova. The problem for G’town on the road has been scoring, but they should have no problems scoring against Providence who plays a NBA style of trying to outscore the opponent. This means that defense will be the key. Although Nova is a great team, you should never allow 90 points. And even against Duke they allowed open shots that were just missed. Providence has shooters all over the court that are not scared to fire early and often, and who will probably not miss open looks.

These two teams have opposing styles. Although you would never have guessed from this past Saturday, G’town is more of a ball control team not a run and gun team like Providence. Providence averages 16 more FG attempts per game than G’town on the season, which means the Hoyas’ transition defense will be key. One disadvantage to the Hoyas is their lack of a bench, so fatigue could hurt them if this becomes a fast paced game. The major advantage G’town will have in this game will be their size advantage (in every position). As I noted, Providence is a guard-oriented team with 4 of their top 5 scorers are guards. Their leading scorer is classified as a F, but he is only 6’6”. Also, the biggest player for the Friars that gets significant minutes is their center Dixon who is only 6’8”, which doesn’t leave anyone to guard Monroe in the paint. However, G’town must commit to getting Monroe the ball in order to be successful on offense and he must hit his FTs (only shooting 64% on the season). In their losses to Syracuse and Marquette, Monroe only had 7 shots from the field and 6 shots from the field, respectively. For Providence, Peterson and Curry will take a bulk of the shots (about 16 shots per game for Peterson and 11 shots per game for Curry). Peterson is an undersized forward that will slash to the basket, but can also pull up for a 3. Curry is your traditional guard that will shoot from the outside (about half of his shots are 3’s). Slowing down these two guys early is a necessity for G’town. If Curry sees the ball go in the hoop early, look out because he can get on fire.

As I stated above G’town will not win in a shootout. Although they have shot over 56% from the field in their last 5 games, their hot shooting cannot last forever. By using ball control and using their size, G’town should win and cover quite easily. Also, Providence has had struggles ATS this year and in years past. The Friars are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 at home and 8-22 ATS in their last 30 as the home dog. The Friars are however, 4-1 ATS against G’town in their last 5 meetings. Historically, G’town has not been a great team ATS either. However, they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. The Friars have not performed well this year ATS after a loss either. The Friars are 2-4 ATS in home games following a loss, but G’town has been equally as bad after a win. The Hoyas are 0-3 ATS in road games after a 10+ point victory. For me however, it is on the court that makes more of a difference than trends in my decisions. G’town has a massive size advantage and the superior athletes. My play is G’town -4. Got on this one early because I have a feeling the line will probably go up from here.

2.BC +6.5 @ Wake:
Wake Forest has been on fire as of late, and have been great at home all season (3-0 in ACC play). As good as Wake has been, BC has been equally bad losing 7 of last 10 including 1-3 on the road (lone win @ lowly Miami). Based on performance this game looks like Wake should win this game easily, but BC has the make up to play Wake well in this game. The one piece for BC that is missing is a consistent scorer on the perimeter like Tyrese Rice was last year. Trapani has been okay this year, but he was better in a secondary role last year. Raji has been up and down this year, but he has the most potential to be that big time scorer. He is athletic and can play both inside and outside. Wake has the advantage on the inside though with McFarland, Woods, and Aminu. Josh Southern is the only real big inside player for BC, but you can also include Trapani at 6’8, but he does not have the athleticism to match up with Aminu.

On the perimeter, it is a toss up. Neither team has much of an outside threat with only one player for each team shooting over 40% from 3 (Stewart for Wake and Roche for BC). This game is going to be won with defense. Both teams will look to penetrate the lane and use backdoor cuts for most of their offensive production. Wake is not only the bigger team, but they have quick guards that like to push the basketball. They have shown their balance this year with an OT win at Virginia where they scored in the 60’s, and an OT win vs Maryland where they scored in the mid-80’s. BC has struggled to score this season (averaging 63.5 ppg in ACC play), so in order for them to keep this one close they will have to slow the pace down. For Wake, they want to score in the upper-70’s, which fits their style with their leader Ish Smith and the other athletes on their roster.

This is a tough game to call for me. My lean is to Wake -6.5, but it is not my strongest play of the night. Wake is good at home, but BC has been playing better as of late. Wake has struggled to blowout any teams this year with several close wins at home. Both teams have impressive records ATS as of late, but one trend that is in Wake’s favor is that the favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. But for me it comes down to their size advantage and BC’s anemic offense.

3.Purdue +3 @ Michigan St:
Coming off back-to-back road losses, Mich St should come out hungrier than ever. However, Purdue is not a team that you want to try and end a losing streak against. Since their mid-season lull, Purdue has been great winning 5 straight. Although they are winning, they are struggling just a bit on the road. They lost 2 early road games to Wisc and NW, but some would say that those games were in the middle of their skid and that’s why they lost. However, there last 2 road games @ Ill and @ Ind have been very close games that Purdue had to hold on at the end to win. Purdue’s troubles on the road this season have stemmed from their defense and poor shooting from 3. They are giving up 8 ppg more on the road and shooting a miserable 27% from 3 (Hummel is shooting 28% from 3 in road conference games). Purdue is a tough team to defend because they have 3 guys who can take over a game and dominate. They are balanced on offense, but they are streaky. They will have long cold streaks, which is okay when you are playing a bad offensive team, but Mich St has the potential to be a dangerous scoring team.

Mich St has a lot of good players, but their only chance in this game is if Kalin Lucas plays. Every team has a player that hits big shots and Lucas is that guy for the Spartans. Without Lucas, the Spartans are average at best. Lucas plays well against Purdue too (averaged 17.5 ppg against them last year). MSU has other scorers, but no one who can take over from the perimeter. In order for the inside guys to be effective, Purdue will have to respect an outside game from the Spartans. Without Lucas, there is one less offensive weapon to worry about. Chris Allen filled in nicely for Lucas at Illinois hitting 4-6 from three, but he does not bring the intangibles and leadership of Lucas. After Lucas went down against Wisc, MSU scored 9 pts in 10 or so minutes. That being said, there is no way Lucas is 100% if he does play, which also weighed on my decision.

Neither team is incredibly deep as they both play 7 players, but Purdue gets help because their PG Lewis Jackson is returning tonight. Jackson is not a real scoring threat, but he is a good floor general off the bench. Purdue does have the advantage in size however. Every player that plays significant minutes for Purdue is 6’3 for taller. Also, MSU does not have a post player that plays double digit minutes over 6’8, so JuJuan Johnson could have a field day inside (he averaged 14.5 ppg against MSU last season when MSU had more of a post presence). Although not big height wise, MSU rebounds like they are huge. MSU averages a +11 rebound margin over their opponents, but tonight could be more difficult. The one advantage MSU has is of course the home court advantage. While Purdue has played MSU tough in East Lansing, MSU has still won the last 6 at home (3-3 ATS though). The Breslin Center is a tough place to play and could prove too much for Purdue. With the line this low, you are really betting on who will win the game, and with Lucas I have no doubt MSU can win this game.

Though smaller in the post, I think MSU’s athleticism and overall rebounding technique will prevail in this game. Also, Purdue has not been a team to just throw the ball in the post, so I think they will not take advantage of Johnson as much on the inside. My lean in this game is MSU because of the home court advantage and the revenge factor of coming off two straight losses, but this is contingent on the status of Lucas. If he does not play then it is a no play for me, if he plays I’m thinking MSU.

·I still like W. Kent -2, Under in Wich St/Evan, and CSU -2.5.

kboiler · 02-09-10, 02:40 PM

Nice write up JMS. Although Lewis Jackson has been back for a couple of games now. He isn't a huge threat to score, but if Kalin's ankle is gimpy, look for LewJack to drive and dish to JuJuan Johnson. Even if Kalin plays, he won't be "healthy".

Big Dave's Picks · 02-09-10, 02:58 PM

Thanks for the write-ups DukeBlue your analysis and comparisons of the 3 games are remarkable as always. I will tail you on all three and but will also be watching closely on the status of Lucas for MSU. Still like W.KY and Colo. St. will you have decisions and plays for these 2 games? Also, do you have any opinion on VCU/Geo.Mason, TENN/VANDY? As always much appreciated brother and BOL tonight... Big Dave

Dukebluejms · 02-09-10, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by Big Dave's Picks

Thanks for the write-ups DukeBlue your analysis and comparisons of the 3 games are remarkable as always. I will tail you on all three and but will also be watching closely on the status of Lucas for MSU. Still like W.KY and Colo. St. will you have decisions and plays for these 2 games? Also, do you have any opinion on VCU/Geo.Mason, TENN/VANDY? As always much appreciated brother and BOL tonight... Big Dave

I like both WKY and CSU. I will probably play WKY, but CSU pick will depend on how the night is going. I like GM too. Both teams are pretty good but in VCU has lost 2 road games to Drex and NE. Both of these teams are very similar to GMU in that they are physical teams that do not play an uptempo, 3 point game like VCU. Tenn/Vandy is a toss up for me. I think Vandy will take this one at home, but Tenn has been playing well as of late and Vandy has not. If a gun were to my head I'd have to say Tenn. I'm staying away though. I'll be posting my plays later.

Dukebluejms · 02-09-10, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by kboiler

Nice write up JMS. Although Lewis Jackson has been back for a couple of games now. He isn't a huge threat to score, but if Kalin's ankle is gimpy, look for LewJack to drive and dish to JuJuan Johnson. Even if Kalin plays, he won't be "healthy".

I agree with you boiler. I hate MSU and I don't like betting them because I like to root against them. Like I said in my write up, Lucas will definitely not be 100%, but his presence will be an advantage. This should be a good game. My play is based a lot on the home court advantage the Spartans have. BOL

Big Dave's Picks · 02-09-10, 04:56 PM

Good Calls DukeBlue Tenn/Vandy will probably be a no play for me. So that being said I will probably lock in to this:

Georgetown -4

Wake Forest -6.5

Western KY -2

Colorado St. -2.5

BOL tonight sir and appreciate all the hard work today. Lets go get'em...Big Dave

Dukebluejms · 02-09-10, 05:23 PM

Card 2.9.10:

1. Wake -6.5
2. G'town -4
3. WKY -2
4. Under 147.5 Tenn/Vandy

more to come...

Dukebluejms · 02-09-10, 06:17 PM

Adding:

5. MSU -2.5

Dukebluejms · 02-09-10, 09:11 PM

1. Wake -6.5
2. G'town -4
3. WKY -2
4. Under 147.5 Tenn/Vandy
5. MSU -2.5

I cannot believe Vandy ran up the score like that. I thought for sure this would cover when they were up 25 with 5 min left but they were driving to the basket looking to get fouled only 10 seconds into the shot clock!!!! Damn it! Now Wake is about to blow a 19 pt second half lead to allow BC to get a backdoor cover.

Dukebluejms · 02-09-10, 09:14 PM

1. Wake -6.5
2. G'town -4
3. WKY -2
4. Under 147.5 Tenn/Vandy
5. MSU -2.5

WOW! Wake held on. That would have been a heart breaker.