Dukeblue Picks and Write ups 2/8

[Dukebluejms]

Good Morning to all. Here are my early morning leans. As always, feedback is appreciated. Write ups for my strongest leans to come later.

1. Nova +5
2. Texas +2
3. Loyola (IL) +20.5
4. James Madison -1
5. Kan/TX over 153
6. LA Tech +2

[Busterflywheel]

BOL tonight

[Big Dave's Picks]

Hey brother good call on the Saints. I really like Villanova at +5 really see some value on that one. La Tech/New Mexico St. is realy tough to predict so I will probably stay away from. I will look into James Madison more but I really like CofC tonight as well as Kansas. BOL tonight sir and will continue to look into your plays further so that maybe I can add some further insight. Thanks Again as always, Big Dave What is it about Texas you like so much just curious?

[scottdills]

Picking Kansas, but staying away from Villanova/WVa unless the line starts to move.

[Dukebluejms]

Hey brother good call on the Saints. I really like Villanova at +5 really see some value on that one. La Tech/New Mexico St. is realy tough to predict so I will probably stay away from. I will look into James Madison more but I really like CofC tonight as well as Kansas. BOL tonight sir and will continue to look into your plays further so that maybe I can add some further insight. Thanks Again as always, Big Dave What is it about Texas you like so much just curious?

Thanks Dave. I'll post my write ups later and it will definitely include KU/TX. That was just a lean when I looked at the lines. After capping it is very likely I could change my mind.

[trap]

something fishy with the KU/TX line,
lean to TX also
g/l

[Regul8er]

Stay away from Towson/JMU game. I picked them both last week, and both missed the spread by like 25+ points.

[Dukebluejms]

Stay away from Towson/JMU game. I picked them both last week, and both missed the spread by like 25+ points.

I know what you mean. JMU has hurt me this year too, but Towson is awful and JMU at home seems like a good pick. The only reason it was a lean was because the card is slim today.

[Regul8er]

Its at Towson.......JMU is on the road.

[Dukebluejms]

Its at Towson.......JMU is on the road.

You are most certainly right! My bad.

[Dukebluejms]

Write Ups are in...

1.Villanova +5.5 @ West Virginia:
Coming off their first Big East loss of the season, Nova should be looking for revenge. As has been the case for most of the year, it was not their offense that let them down, but their defense. A top 5 team should not lose a game in which they score 90 points! Having said that, I still think Nova is a top 5 team, and I personally do not think West Virginia is. West Virginia has been helped by an easy schedule thus far this season in which all of their toughest games have been at home (Pitt, Louisville, and Syracuse at home compared to @ St. Johns, Depaul, USF, and ND). Both teams have a short turn around after games Saturday afternoon. The advantage for Nova is that G’Town is more similar to WV than Nova is to St. Johns. Nova can score on anyone, and I look for them to put forth a better defensive effort tonight. This line is skewed to me due to Nova’s loss to G’town, which is one reason I like Nova in this game. Also, I think Nova matches up better with WV than they did G’town because unlike G’town, WV has no real inside presence. This game will be between two teams that play a very similar style, and in a matchup like that I tend to go with the team that has the better players. Both teams are long and athletic and will look to push the ball and neither is scared to shoot the ball from downtown (both teams average 8 3PM and 21 3PA for the season). Don’t get me wrong, Butler, Ebanks, and Smith are very talented, but I’m not sure how they will match up with Nova and their deep bench.

Another advantage for Nova is FT shooting. If this game is close at the end, WV shoots 7% lower than Nova on the season. The advantage that WV has in this game is the home court advantage. Not only do they score more efficiently at home, but their defense really steps up only giving up 59 ppg. WV is going to look to slow this game down because they know that they cannot score with Nova, which is true as long as they aren’t given the wide open looks G’town was getting on Saturday. The key for this game will be the tempo. Whichever team can establish the tempo to their liking will have the upper hand. Nova should come out with more energy on the defensive end tonight after that dismal performance against G’town, and if they do they should win. Another key for Nova will be their start. WV has had games where they have struggled in the first half this season. If Nova can come out fast and take the early lead, this will allow them to take the crowd out of the game. On top of that, they will force WV to play a quicker pace.

The trend analysis for this game also favors the Wildcats. Nova is 5-1 ATS on the road this season and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games, which means they play well with limited rest. Earlier this season, Nova played Marquette on a Saturday, then followed that up with a victory at Louisville the following Monday. Although, they did win the game, they did start slow and were forced to come back for the victory. If they do the same tonight however, a comeback will be less likely because of WV’s defense. WV is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning record. Also, this will be WV’s first time playing a game on one days rest since November, which means this will be new for the players. This coming off a second half where they had to come back after a halftime deficit could lead to fatigue. Head-to-head is different however; WV is 4-1ATS and SU in their last 5 against Nova.

My pick here is based more on instinct than the numbers. The numbers on the season say it is a toss up, the trends this season say Nova, the trends head-to-head say WV, home court advantage says WV, and my gut says Nova. My play will be Nova +5.5.It should be a great game in which I would not be surprised if either team wins SU. My rule is that if the underdog has a legitimate shot to win the game, then I take them plus the points. I see Nova’s defense being too much for the Mountaineers: Nova 82 WV 72.

2.Kansas +2 @ Texas:
You can throw season records and stats out the window in a game like this. This game has been circled on the schedules of most basketball fans since the schedules came out. I realize Texas has been playing very poorly as of late, but Kansas has not necessarily been stellar either. Much of Texas’ recent struggles have been away from Austin, where they play much better, while Kansas has not been great by any means on the road as of late (two OT victories against COL and KST). Kansas has dominated the series as of late winning 5 of the last 6 including 2 of last 3 in Austin. This season is different for the Longhorns because they have dominated at home this season except for a slip up in OT against Baylor a few weeks back. The key to UT’s games at home is that they force an average of 18 turnovers per game at home this season. Also, their main offensive threat Damion James has been great at home averaging 23.5 ppg in home conference games this season (17 ppg on the season). James also had a great game last year against Kansas with a 26 pt performance.

Each team has their stars that will get their points, so another key to me will be the underclassmen for both teams stepping up. For Kansas, they have seen Xavier Henry struggle in road conference games this season averaging just under 5 ppg when he averages 13 for the season. Also, the Morris brothers will have to step up big for the Jayhawks. Marcus has been great this season, but Markieff has been a let down. Aldrich and Pittman will bang on each other all night, but the Jayhawks need another big presence to bang with James inside. The Longhorns will need production from both Avery Bradley and J’Covan Brown to be successful. Bradley has been up and down this season. He averages 14.5 ppg in home conference games, but that is helped out by a 29 pt performance vs. CU. Brown is very much the same way. Dexter Pittman is a big question mark as well. He can play very well at some points, but other games he doesn’t show up at all. He has trouble staying on the court, but in order for the Longhorns to be successful he has to stay on the court to check Aldrich.

Both teams played this past Saturday, so just like in the Nova/WV game, fatigue may be an issue. Texas was in this situation last week. They lost to Baylor on a Saturday, and followed that up with a game at OK St the following Monday in which they won. So tonight they will be coming off a loss to top rival Oklahoma, and I think they will be out for revenge. On the other hand, KU has been rolling since their loss to Tenn, winning 8 in a row all in conference. Lately though, KU have not been playing their best basketball. In their last two games they have been very one dimensional on offense. Against Nebraska they had only 2 players in double figures and against CU they had only 3.

Trend wise Texas has been awful, except that they are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog. Similarly, Kansas has not been exceptional ATS either. Because neither team has been great ATS, I did not factor it into my decision too much. This is a hard game to call because one would expect KU to win this game because of how poorly Texas has played as of late. Also, KU has dominated the season series. The only advantages Texas has is home court advantage. I think Texas will come out more motivated in this game because they have more to lose. Desperate teams are scary to bet against, especially desperate home teams playing a big rival on national tv. I am leaning TX -1.5 in this game. I may stay away from this game all together just because the line seems fishy. Nothing would lead me to think TX should be favored in this game especially after losing at home to Baylor last week. I would be very cautious in betting this game and go with your gut over stats because all the stats are pointing to KU.

3.LA Tech +2.5 @ NM St:
Not going to do a big write up for this one. My lean is to LA Tech plus the points because the line seems off. It seems like Vegas wants to get action on NM St with such a small line because they beat LA Tech on the road by 14 just last week. I might not play this one, but if I do I’ll be on La Tech.


Dropping Over KU/TX, JMU; Now considering App St -5 and Col of Char -7

I hope these write ups can help some people out and make some money. Let me know what you think.

[Dukebluejms]

Card 2/8:

1. Villanova +5.5

More to come...

[gonnakillit]

1.Villanova +5.5 @ West Virginia:
Coming off their first Big East loss of the season, Nova should be looking for revenge. As has been the case for most of the year, it was not their offense that let them down, but their defense. A top 5 team should not lose a game in which they score 90 points! Having said that, I still think Nova is a top 5 team, and I personally do not think West Virginia is. West Virginia has been helped by an easy schedule thus far this season in which all of their toughest games have been at home (Pitt, Louisville, and Syracuse at home compared to @ St. Johns, Depaul, USF, and ND). Both teams have a short turn around after games Saturday afternoon. The advantage for Nova is that G’Town is more similar to WV than Nova is to St. Johns. Nova can score on anyone, and I look for them to put forth a better defensive effort tonight. This line is skewed to me due to Nova’s loss to G’town, which is one reason I like Nova in this game. Also, I think Nova matches up better with WV than they did G’town because unlike G’town, WV has no real inside presence. This game will be between two teams that play a very similar style, and in a matchup like that I tend to go with the team that has the better players. Both teams are long and athletic and will look to push the ball and neither is scared to shoot the ball from downtown (both teams average 8 3PM and 21 3PA for the season). Don’t get me wrong, Butler, Ebanks, and Smith are very talented, but I’m not sure how they will match up with Nova and their deep bench.

Another advantage for Nova is FT shooting. If this game is close at the end, WV shoots 7% lower than Nova on the season. The advantage that WV has in this game is the home court advantage. Not only do they score more efficiently at home, but their defense really steps up only giving up 59 ppg. WV is going to look to slow this game down because they know that they cannot score with Nova, which is true as long as they aren’t given the wide open looks G’town was getting on Saturday. The key for this game will be the tempo. Whichever team can establish the tempo to their liking will have the upper hand. Nova should come out with more energy on the defensive end tonight after that dismal performance against G’town, and if they do they should win. Another key for Nova will be their start. WV has had games where they have struggled in the first half this season. If Nova can come out fast and take the early lead, this will allow them to take the crowd out of the game. On top of that, they will force WV to play a quicker pace.

The trend analysis for this game also favors the Wildcats. Nova is 5-1 ATS on the road this season and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games, which means they play well with limited rest. Earlier this season, Nova played Marquette on a Saturday, then followed that up with a victory at Louisville the following Monday. Although, they did win the game, they did start slow and were forced to come back for the victory. If they do the same tonight however, a comeback will be less likely because of WV’s defense. WV is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning record. Also, this will be WV’s first time playing a game on one days rest since November, which means this will be new for the players. This coming off a second half where they had to come back after a halftime deficit could lead to fatigue. Head-to-head is different however; WV is 4-1ATS and SU in their last 5 against Nova.

My pick here is based more on instinct than the numbers. The numbers on the season say it is a toss up, the trends this season say Nova, the trends head-to-head say WV, home court advantage says WV, and my gut says Nova. My play will be Nova +5.5.It should be a great game in which I would not be surprised if either team wins SU. My rule is that if the underdog has a legitimate shot to win the game, then I take them plus the points. I see Nova’s defense being too much for the Mountaineers: Nova 82 WV 72.

2.Kansas +2 @ Texas:
You can throw season records and stats out the window in a game like this. This game has been circled on the schedules of most basketball fans since the schedules came out. I realize Texas has been playing very poorly as of late, but Kansas has not necessarily been stellar either. Much of Texas’ recent struggles have been away from Austin, where they play much better, while Kansas has not been great by any means on the road as of late (two OT victories against COL and KST). Kansas has dominated the series as of late winning 5 of the last 6 including 2 of last 3 in Austin. This season is different for the Longhorns because they have dominated at home this season except for a slip up in OT against Baylor a few weeks back. The key to UT’s games at home is that they force an average of 18 turnovers per game at home this season. Also, their main offensive threat Damion James has been great at home averaging 23.5 ppg in home conference games this season (17 ppg on the season). James also had a great game last year against Kansas with a 26 pt performance.

Each team has their stars that will get their points, so another key to me will be the underclassmen for both teams stepping up. For Kansas, they have seen Xavier Henry struggle in road conference games this season averaging just under 5 ppg when he averages 13 for the season. Also, the Morris brothers will have to step up big for the Jayhawks. Marcus has been great this season, but Markieff has been a let down. Aldrich and Pittman will bang on each other all night, but the Jayhawks need another big presence to bang with James inside. The Longhorns will need production from both Avery Bradley and J’Covan Brown to be successful. Bradley has been up and down this season. He averages 14.5 ppg in home conference games, but that is helped out by a 29 pt performance vs. CU. Brown is very much the same way. Dexter Pittman is a big question mark as well. He can play very well at some points, but other games he doesn’t show up at all. He has trouble staying on the court, but in order for the Longhorns to be successful he has to stay on the court to check Aldrich.

Both teams played this past Saturday, so just like in the Nova/WV game, fatigue may be an issue. Texas was in this situation last week. They lost to Baylor on a Saturday, and followed that up with a game at OK St the following Monday in which they won. So tonight they will be coming off a loss to top rival Oklahoma, and I think they will be out for revenge. On the other hand, KU has been rolling since their loss to Tenn, winning 8 in a row all in conference. Lately though, KU have not been playing their best basketball. In their last two games they have been very one dimensional on offense. Against Nebraska they had only 2 players in double figures and against CU they had only 3.

Trend wise Texas has been awful, except that they are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog. Similarly, Kansas has not been exceptional ATS either. Because neither team has been great ATS, I did not factor it into my decision too much. This is a hard game to call because one would expect KU to win this game because of how poorly Texas has played as of late. Also, KU has dominated the season series. The only advantages Texas has is home court advantage. I think Texas will come out more motivated in this game because they have more to lose. Desperate teams are scary to bet against, especially desperate home teams playing a big rival on national tv. I am leaning TX -1.5 in this game. I may stay away from this game all together just because the line seems fishy. Nothing would lead me to think TX should be favored in this game especially after losing at home to Baylor last week. I would be very cautious in betting this game and go with your gut over stats because all the stats are pointing to KU.

3.LA Tech +2.5 @ NM St:
Not going to do a big write up for this one. My lean is to LA Tech plus the points because the line seems off. It seems like Vegas wants to get action on NM St with such a small line because they beat LA Tech on the road by 14 just last week. I might not play this one, but if I do I’ll be on La Tech.


Dropping Over KU/TX, JMU; Now considering App St -5 and Col of Char -7

I hope these write ups can help some people out and make some money. Let me know what you think.

i would normally agree with you regarding the La. Tech game, but the action seems to be pretty even on both sides. I'm pounding New Mexico St. and like the over as well

[Dukebluejms]

Gonnakillit,

BOL with your plays tonight and thank you for the feedback. I've got a ton of lurkers and no one says anything. I use feedback to help me narrow my plays. As for the game, that is certainly not a big play if a play at all. The only way I play it is if I hit a few others tonight. But can you explain the line being so low??? I can't think of any reason whatsoever.

[Dukebluejms]

Adding:

2. Under 147.5 Rider/Niagra

[Big Dave's Picks]

Good Work today DukeBlue I appreciate all the advice and analysis through your posted write-ups. I decided to just go small tonight with one play CofC -6.5. Wanted to play Villanova but uncertain how they will handle the short trip to Morgantown and lots of posters on here love WVU. As for Kansas I see how they could have trouble in Austin tonight so I wish you lots of luck with the Longhorns. BOL tonight brother with your plays and look forward to working with you tomm. Thanks Again Big Dave

[Dukebluejms]

Adding:

3. Col of Char -7
4. Texas +2

[Dukebluejms]

Card 2/8

1. Nova +5.5
2. Under 147.5 Niagra/Rider
3. CoC -7
4. Texas +2

[Dukebluejms]

Good Work today DukeBlue I appreciate all the advice and analysis through your posted write-ups. I decided to just go small tonight with one play CofC -6.5. Wanted to play Villanova but uncertain how they will handle the short trip to Morgantown and lots of posters on here love WVU. As for Kansas I see how they could have trouble in Austin tonight so I wish you lots of luck with the Longhorns. BOL tonight brother with your plays and look forward to working with you tomm. Thanks Again Big Dave

Completely understandable. I like the fact that most people are on WV because the public is generally wrong... Vegas wasn't built on winners. I like Texas tonight to bounce back and save their season. If they lose tonight, they are out of the Big 12 race and will be fighting for a 4 seed come March. BOL!

[2daBank]

Completely understandable. I like the fact that most people are on WV because the public is generally wrong... Vegas wasn't built on winners. I like Texas tonight to bounce back and save their season. If they lose tonight, they are out of the Big 12 race and will be fighting for a 4 seed come March. BOL!

but the majority is on Nova

[Dukebluejms]

Yeah, but I'm going with the majority on here although I did let the majority talk me into CoC against my better judgement. Idk. I got a feeling. Put a small wager (not posted) on Nova ML too.

[Dukebluejms]

Adding one more

1. Nova +5.5
2. Under 147.5 Niagra/Rider
3. CoC -7
4. Texas +2
5. Under 126.5 Butler/Loyola

[Dukebluejms]

1. Nova +5.5
2. Under 147.5 Niagra/Rider
3. CoC -7
4. Texas +2
5. Under 126.5 Butler/Loyola

[Dukebluejms]

1. Nova +5.5
2. Under 147.5 Niagra/Rider
3. CoC -7
4. Texas +2
5. Under 126.5 Butler/Loyola

3-1 so far. Lets go Longhorns!

[Dukebluejms]

1. Nova +5.5
2. Under 147.5 Niagra/Rider
3. CoC -7
4. Texas +2
5. Under 126.5 Butler/Loyola

3-2 yesterday. Better card tonight.