Originally posted by linedrivr
ummmm. NOWe have a winner!!!!
Doc
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Ding, ding, ding!!!! ummmm. NO
We have a winner!!!!
DocComment -
GT down 4 with 3 minutes left. Hawks down 13 with 14 minutes left............to win both these games alone is like +650Comment -
No...this question has been answered many, many times before...Originally posted by frank21That question will be answered shortly Doc!
South Florida 72 Georgetown 64
DocComment -
Seriously. If your life depended on winning one bet would you do an 8 team parlay or just pick one straight bet you felt really good aboutComment -
I hit the 4 team parlay!Comment -
Originally posted by frank21Spreads are a flip of a coin! Money lines are not!
this is by far the most ridiculous absolutely most wrong uninformed post i may have every saw...good luck with your short gambling career
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THATS FUNNY
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if youre gonna do parlays then you should keep it to about 4 teams max and moneylines ARE the way to go for favorites and underdogs- take them plus the points. if youre a good enough capper, you can occasionally find some good nights for combos. -300, -300, -300, -110- four teamer pays +350Comment -
Originally posted by Glitch
Completely agree glitch! I had 4 moneylines that were all about -300 range and threw in hoosiers at +12.5 to sweeten the payout last night and hit easily. paid 5 to 1
I only do those for 1 unit or when I'm up already though because it's not a smart bet
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yeahComment -
Parlays or Straight?
Hitting 1 game is tough enough, when you get into 4-7 games you have to take some ML and have some LUCK on your side also.Comment -
Can I move to nominate Frank21 as the dumbest poster of the year?Originally posted by frank21Spreads are a flip of a coin! Money lines are not!
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Sharpcat is a worthless pile of shit!
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if you can't understand what frank21 is saying, i nominate youOriginally posted by sharpcatCan I move to nominate Frank21 as the dumbest poster of the year?
hes talkin about favorites- moneylines for favorites are much more likely to be winning picks.
underdogs- the spread is more likely, more often.Comment -
Understood!Originally posted by Glitch
can you understand mathematics?
2 teams, heads or tails= 50/50 no matter how much better the other team is it is a 50/50 shot therefore nothing is guaranteed.
the moneyline is what makes this 50/50 because on a moneyline of -233 you would need to win that 70% of the time to break even, therefore it is not any better than a coin flip, unless the fair value of the moneyline was -250 and vegas had it at -233.
So I now nominate you!Comment -
understood also.Originally posted by sharpcat
do you want to have a contest for 100 points. i pick 4 favorites on the moneyline over a span of one week between lets say -150 and -350. if i get 3/4 or better (75%), i win. if not, you win.
he is referring to the likelihood/probability of it being a winning pick individually. not the probability of it being a longterm winning betting strategy.
parlays in general are not a longterm winning betting strategy- but if youre gonna do one...taking a favorite moneyline will improve its chance of survival- and the multiplier that you benefit from by nature of it being a parlay compensates for the decreased return in comparison to if you had all spreads in your parlay.
its not just heads or tails because there is actual information and advantages that give the team an edge and make them more or less likely to win. kentucky is going to beat elon if they play. thats not even close to a coin flip.
i hope you understand this.
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agreed, but by adding a heavy favorite to your parlay will greatly decrease your payout therefore although you may win more than you lose you will still lose long term because you will have to in turn increase your win percentage on this bet.Originally posted by Glitchunderstood also.
do you want to have a contest for 100 points. i pick 4 favorites on the moneyline over a span of one week between lets say -150 and -350. if i get 3/4 or better (75%), i win. if not, you win.
he is referring to the likelihood/probability of it being a winning pick individually. not the probability of it being a longterm winning betting strategy.
parlays in general are not a longterm winning betting strategy- but if youre gonna do one...taking a favorite moneyline will improve its chance of survival- and the multiplier that you benefit from by nature of it being a parlay compensates for the decreased return in comparison to if you had all spreads in your parlay.
its not just heads or tails because there is actual information and advantages that give the team an edge and make them more or less likely to win. kentucky is going to beat elon if they play. thats not even close to a coin flip.
i hope you understand this.
would you than also claim that It is better strategy to just bet strictly favorites on the moneyline?
would this increase your odds of winning "a" parlay? yes slightly, at the cost of a lower payout.
would this increase your parlay win %? most likely
would this increase your profits long term? most definately not!!!!
the high price of the moneyline makes this a coin toss in the long run, because you now need to win your bet at a much higher %.
If you do not understand this concept than you should close your accounts until you learn more about how books operate. Nobody here is just looking to place one bet so therefore this bet long term is no better than another parlay.
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How about a more realistic contest of you bet strictly favorites for a large enough sample to show realistic results (say a minimum of a hundred games) and if you turn a profit at the end you win!
picking 4 games is a joke and is not a large enough sample to produce accurate results, I could easily flip a quarter four times and flip heads all four
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These never seem to hit...Comment -
Originally posted by KingKolzigTough call but I'd go with straight bet
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Originally posted by sharpcatHow about a more realistic contest of you bet strictly favorites for a large enough sample to show realistic results (say a minimum of a hundred games) and if you turn a profit at the end you win!
picking 4 games is a joke and is not a large enough sample to produce accurate results, I could easily flip a quarter four times and flip heads all four
i am telling you that that guys comment was about a favorite being more likely to hit on the moneyline than spread. this is a very simple concept
ive already said its not a winning betting strategy- laying a buncha juice.
giving up points brings down the likliness of an invididual pick/selection being a winning PICK closer to a "coin flip". very very very easy concept.
i understand what youre saying. and i suppose because you already made a comment while not grasping or thinking about this ML concept in terms of the pick being more likely to survive in a parlay- you wont want to admit that you understand what im saying too. but i am positive that you do, so we dont really gotta keep goin.
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I do understand what you are saying and yes a heavy moneyline favorite is definately more likely to win the game but the big picture is that picking a heavy favorite in no way gives you any more expected value. The EV remains the same even if you place 1 bet and win and never bet again, the bet still has the same -EV that it would have if you bet it a hundred times even though you made a profit the 1 time you bet it!
For frank to say this bet is more likely to win is a false statement, although it is more likely to win that one time,it is not more likely to win for more of a profit long term. Which last I checked we are not playing to win here we are playing to win money. And more importantly if you had one bet to make a 7 team parlay is definately not the play to take, as you stated earlier you would be likely to win 3 out 4 heavy ML favorites for 7 to win is unlikely because although one team may be better than the other the overall picture is 2 teams heads or tails all it takes is an injury first quarter and the game is 50/50 again.
I know you understand me and I understand you, I was mostly busting Franks balls because he chose to insult me on a previous thread and than I saw this ridiculous statement from him and could not resist
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franks mother is promiscuous and unattractive. there. helped you out a little bit.Comment -
Originally posted by Glitch
franks mother is promiscuous and unattractive. there. helped you out a little bit.
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Most generally there is an upset.Comment -
i never understand why people make these bets when you could have found three +200 teams on a big card and bet $1 to win $27Comment -
what is funnier is this night I had a 5 team ML parlay that was $2 to win $31,000 and I was 3/5 and one of the losers went to OT (Colorado) and well the other game was a complete blowout. I guess I would just rather bet ML underdogs than -700's.Comment -
5 team parlay risking 2 to win 31000???
Post ticket or Im calling you out for BS!
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