how significant is the line movement?

southpaw74 · 02-02-10, 01:48 PM

If the public is on a team large and the line goes the other way then it's considered a "trap" and too good to be true so go the other way or don't play it. The books are trying to get suckers on one side when they think the other side is going to cover. otherwise known as RLM "reverse line movement". the traps aren't always traps but be weary.

dknight734 · 02-02-10, 01:58 PM

so like with the mich/nw game. last night the line was nw-1.5, now it's nw-2.5, that means nw is getting most of the action. personally i think nw is going to win and cover, but normally what would u do with a 1 point jump like that?

Big Dave's Picks · 02-02-10, 02:01 PM

No if the line was NW -1.5 and moved to a pick and still showed NW was getting 70% of the action...?

southpaw74 · 02-02-10, 02:02 PM

That just seems normal...people like NW and the line is going up for them. The only advantage would be to get NW as early as you can so you get the best number.

southpaw74 · 02-02-10, 02:04 PM

it's probably NW winning by 6 or 7 IMO so I'll take it all the way to -3 but i got in at -2. if it jumps just a .5 then it's no big deal usually.

dknight734 · 02-02-10, 02:22 PM

yeah but what i'm asking is at what point would u think about jumping ship

southpaw74 · 02-02-10, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by dknight734

yeah but what i'm asking is at what point would u think about jumping ship

-3. it's still at -2 at my book

jeepsguy004 · 02-02-10, 02:53 PM

Example. Look at the K State and Nebraska game today. Line opened at Neb +4 and is now down to Neb +3....70% of the bets were coming in on K State and they should be since on paper K State looks like the better team . You have to ask yourself though why did it go down if K State is such a better team. Even with some of the trends you see that K State should be a big favorite. Neb is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games and 1-6 ATS in those game. K State is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games. I am taking that their is sharp money coming in on Neb and that is why the line dropped. These are the things I look at for traps games. You will never know how much money is being bet so your best bet is look see why a line has dropped when a large % is on one team and it went the other way. Good Luck I hope this help out.

vyomguy · 02-02-10, 02:57 PM

If it was that simple, vegas would have gone broke

.

PittsburghPlayer · 02-02-10, 03:02 PM

Jeepman, nice work in answering Q.

dknight734 · 02-02-10, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by jeepsguy004

Example. Look at the K State and Nebraska game today. Line opened at Neb +4 and is now down to Neb +3....70% of the bets were coming in on K State and they should be since on paper K State looks like the better team . You have to ask yourself though why did it go down if K State is such a better team. Even with some of the trends you see that K State should be a big favorite. Neb is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games and 1-6 ATS in those game. K State is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games. I am taking that their is sharp money coming in on Neb and that is why the line dropped. These are the things I look at for traps games. You will never know how much money is being bet so your best bet is look see why a line has dropped when a large % is on one team and it went the other way. Good Luck I hope this help out.

so r they trying to get more people to bet on kst.?

jeepsguy004 · 02-02-10, 03:13 PM

Thanks Pittsburgh. Another example is that Jacksonvile St at Tenn St game. The line in that game is doing the same thing. Tenn St is horrible this year but they went from a dog to a favorite at some places. I think we are seeing some sharp money come in on them also since it looks like 76% of the bets are coming in on Jack St....I mean does the epublic really want to bet on a team that has lost 6 stright and covered in only 2 of those.....Sharps are hitting those two games.

Glitch · 02-02-10, 03:17 PM

"players dont win games, refs do"
knowing and understanding that means it is possible for you to believe in 'RLM' indication helping a lot of the time.

apparently they try to set the lines in a way to get an even amount of money on both sides. like a stock, if it is being overvalued by speculation or heavy volume, the price will still go higher. if they're not trying to even it out for balance then it seems like a trap or sucker bet.

jeepsguy004 · 02-02-10, 03:19 PM

Dknight, they are adjusting the line so they get equal action on both sides.. They are getting 70% of the bets on K State but that does not mean they are getting 70% of the money. What is happening is that their is more money coming in on Neb and they want to get more money on K State to equal it out. So by lowering the line their should be more squares that jump on K State. Just remember my friend they do not make a line on how much a team is going to win by they make it on how they can get equal betting action on both sides. Oh yeah remember this too the sharps don't always win they are wrong at times so don't think following this kind of movement will inflate your bank roll. You are going to win and lose if you follwo this type but you should win mor ethen lose.

dknight734 · 02-02-10, 03:20 PM

i must be retarded because i'm still not getting a complete grasp of the concept, i understand about the equal action and such, what i don't get is when should u follow the trend of the line

Glitch · 02-02-10, 03:29 PM

ok. the team getting the most money and bets on it should become a less favorable side....minus more points or plus less.

if theres an indication of this funny line-movement- with this not occuring despite heavy volume goin a side- then it might be a good idea to stay away from that game.

they're suppose to try to balance it out basically to get even volume on both sides. thats what jimmy The Greek said anyway

southpaw74 · 02-02-10, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by dknight734

i must be retarded because i'm still not getting a complete grasp of the concept, i understand about the equal action and such, what i don't get is when should u follow the trend of the line

If the books get even money on both sides then they win huge because they get paid all that juice!! sometimes they manipulate to get more than that but even a 50/50 makes them a ton of money! if 40 people bet $100 on duke and 4 "smart" guys bet 50k against them then the side looks like everyone is on duke but in fact the money is on the other side. so the line changes in the opposite direction that you would think so that more $100 guys get on it to equal it out so the books don't lose that 50k to the "smart" guys. that's why some lines that look too good to be true sometimes are. now that being said it doesn't mean the 50k guys are always correct but they are typically more than they are wrong.

jeepsguy004 · 02-02-10, 04:10 PM

Guys this is a great thread. we need to keep this going since it will help alot of guys out about how to read lines. I want to keep writing but I have to tend to my son. I will be back tomorrow since I am off and will have more games that we can hope to help others out with. Good luck tonight everyone.

sweetjones55 · 02-02-10, 04:52 PM

Just as a rule of thumb, in really big games like superbowls or big nba matchups like lakers/cavs, lakers/celtics etc DO NOT take much out of RLM. The books are almost always trying to confuse shaprs by moving the line for no apparent reason.

Also, MAKE SURE that there were no injury updates as people just like to proclaim movement RLM when it is just moving because of a injury being announced. This happens a lot in NCAAB.

southpaw74 · 02-02-10, 04:56 PM

Good point sweet!

vyomguy · 02-02-10, 05:00 PM

How can you trust sportsbooks to provide correct info?....they can always rig it right?

HoulihansTX · 02-02-10, 05:03 PM

Common practice is to get equal action, but Books like to gamble too. If the books put out a line they like, many times they stick to it even though people are hammering one side.

i.e. USF vs. Pitt

Remember the biggest sharps in the world are the books. Many times the best bet is to see where the books are gambling.

So tonite would be.... Tenn Tech/Nebraska/ Nets. The books have chosen a side on those games, and are gambling that their line is where it should be, even though their is heavy action on one side of their ledgers..

2daBank · 02-02-10, 05:07 PM

great thread tough subject as i agree RLM is a great tool it is just that a tool.....i would not suggest it being the end all be all by any means....well i agree that in most cases it is in the books best interest to get the money as even as possible i also feel there are certain games where they clearly draw the line and have picked a side and finding these such cases to me is the best way to take advantage of this tool (not always easy and usually a hard play to make, over time i have just learned to trust it in these select spots)...as i said its really a tough thing to pinpoint and im sure most ppl use this a variety of ways in there capping

PittsburghPlayer · 02-02-10, 05:19 PM

2nd what the man in post 24 of this thread said

dknight734 · 02-03-10, 02:51 AM

thanks for all the info, i think it will help along the way.

BrianLaverty · 02-03-10, 02:55 AM

Originally posted by Big Dave's Picks

No if the line was NW -1.5 and moved to a pick and still showed NW was getting 70% of the action...?

I dont know if anyone correctly answered this, but this would usually mean that you should take Michigan. Itd be a classic reverse line movement situation... Everyday it happens and we should actually track it in this thread. It shouldnt be the end all decision, but it hits better then 50% obviously.

dknight734 · 02-03-10, 03:03 AM

i was on nw. i lost my parlay cuz i made it home right at seven, after they closed out, wf, nova, ucf, and ri. had sub in other games and well u know how the story ends.

iceminers26 · 02-03-10, 04:31 AM

I would really like to see the yearly records for RLM. Its talked about enough, but no one has presented any documented records that I have come across on this forum. RLM or line movement as well will not make me make a play, it will only perhaps get me to buy out of a play that I am currently on.

Two ways that I look at movement that will perhaps get me to buy off a play is 1). A large portion of the public is on the same side as me and the line moves the other direction or stays still and 2). The action is roughly even on both sides and the books move the line 1 point or more on the opposite team then I am on.

Again, it will never convince me to make a play, only perhaps buy out of a play. Its better to be safe than sorry because there are plenty of other opportunities to make solid plays in the days ahead.

Shortstop · 02-03-10, 04:49 AM

It means nothing. All games are a coin flip.

2daBank · 02-03-10, 05:00 AM

Originally posted by iceminers26

I would really like to see the yearly records for RLM. Its talked about enough, but no one has presented any documented records that I have come across on this forum. RLM or line movement as well will not make me make a play, it will only perhaps get me to buy out of a play that I am currently on.

Two ways that I look at movement that will perhaps get me to buy off a play is 1). A large portion of the public is on the same side as me and the line moves the other direction or stays still and 2). The action is roughly even on both sides and the books move the line 1 point or more on the opposite team then I am on.

Again, it will never convince me to make a play, only perhaps buy out of a play. Its better to be safe than sorry because there are plenty of other opportunities to make solid plays in the days ahead.

like i said ice that it a just a tool and i wouldnt think just purely betting off it would be all that impressive....as there where several good guys that went with it tonight and got burnt....fortunately i passed as i didnt feel it was doing these things for the right reasons tonight....however imho there are several games a week that clearly the books are looking to back a side the trick just is figuring out what is really 1 of those spots...i

The General · 02-03-10, 05:03 AM

Neither Chasing the money or Fading the money is going to be a significant factor for gamblers. Fading public money will keep you in the game longer from my experiments, but once the lines have moved the most value is gone, unless you are liking the dog of course.

The General · 02-03-10, 05:06 AM

Also dknight, something to consider...

players don't win games, refs do!!!

I firmly believe in most cases with the refs, they'll determine results ATS (esp in hoops), but can care less who wins SU in the majority of cases.

Just my opinion.

Take care

jeepsguy004 · 02-03-10, 09:14 AM

Alright guys. I have been looking at some games already lets see if we can help each other out today to take some of the books money. I see two games that I am going to follow already today. George Mason opened at -1 at Georgia St. From SBR Odds I see that 74% of the bets are coming in on George Mason but this line is holding tight at -1. George Mason has been on fire lately also. They have won 7 in a row and 9 out of 10. On the other hand Georgia St has lost 3 in a row and 8 out of 10. We have to ask ourselves why is this line only 1 then. Well with this line holding tight right now I think we are seeing some bigger bets coming in on Georgia St. I am going to watch this one through the day. Another one that I am seeing is Xavier at UMASS. Xavier opened at -10 and is now down to -8 at some books with 76% of the bets coming in on them. Why wouldn't the bets come in on them since they are 8-2 in their last 10 and covering in 7 of those 10 games. UMASS is 2-8 in their last 10 and they have only covered 1 out of their last 4. Oh yeah throw in the fact UMASS is 0-4 ATS at home this year. Why did this line go down if UMASS is playing so bad right now. Well like I said we are seeing the bigger money bets come in on them. I will keep an eye out for more games today but those are two that I saw as of this morning.

jeepsguy004 · 02-03-10, 10:31 AM

Guys it looks like their is some line RLM going on in the NBA tonight also. I see that Philly opened as a 1 point favorite at home to the Bulls. Their has been 62% of the bets coming in on the Bulls and the line has gone up to 1.5. I am asking myself why since The Bulls have been playing great as of late. Winning and covering in 5 of their last 6. Philly has only won 1 out of their last 4 and they haven't covered in 4 straight games. Philly is only 5-18 ATS at home this year. This is another line I am going to look at today since this does nto seem right.