Dukeblue Jan 28 - picks and write-ups

2daBank · 01-28-10, 10:11 AM

watch out for st. peters they have played some good ball and are more than capable of hanging with siena in this 1

Busterflywheel · 01-28-10, 10:35 AM

I like the V.T call...And Bank is correct about St Peter's having the upper hand, especially in the matchup today...BOL

2daBank · 01-28-10, 10:40 AM

i like VT as a team have all year not sure if i can ride with them tonight in state rival games worry me and i read delaney is banged up again listed as questionable if he cant go or isnt a 100% will be tough as vir has been strong at home

RetardStrength · 01-28-10, 10:43 AM

I don't like Wake... Rebound game for Ga tech at home... My "early" card shows VA and Miami OH, subject to change... I love Zona @ home... I'm avoiding Miss and Auburn... I like your under play on SH.

Inserts: I like the over 125 St Johns/Pitts
I like Wisconsin +9.5 @ Purdue

BOL to you!!

Regul8er · 01-28-10, 10:46 AM

I'd like Wisconsin more if Lauer was playing!

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

watch out for st. peters they have played some good ball and are more than capable of hanging with siena in this 1

Originally posted by Busterflywheel

I like the V.T call...And Bank is correct about St Peter's having the upper hand, especially in the matchup today...BOL

Still capping that one, but to this point you look to be right. Thanks for the input.

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by RetardStrength

I don't like Wake... Rebound game for Ga tech at home... My "early" card shows VA and Miami OH, subject to change... I love Zona @ home... I'm avoiding Miss and Auburn... I like your under play on SH.

Inserts: I like the over 125 St Johns/Pitts
I like Wisconsin +9.5 @ Purdue

BOL to you!!

The reason the Wake game stuck out to me is that the line seems a little low. Like Vegas wants everyone on GT. Still undecided on that one. Wisconsin game is scary for me because both teams are capable of showing up or having a huge let down.

The Silver Fox · 01-28-10, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i like VT as a team have all year not sure if i can ride with them tonight in state rival games worry me and i read delaney is banged up again listed as questionable if he cant go or isnt a 100% will be tough as vir has been strong at home

As a VT student i have a slight bias for this game, but i will most likely stay away....
Last game at home we barely beat boston college with little input from delaney. Hes been nursing an ankle injury since the beginning of the month and if hes not 100% it most likely falls on Dorenzo Hudson's shoulders. I would lean towards uva...

iceaxe56 · 01-28-10, 02:55 PM

lots of road picks usually means lots of losses--gt is out for a statement game and revenge--auburn is going to win some damn time why not tonight--a state and cal a coin flip--gl

Busterflywheel · 01-28-10, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i like VT as a team have all year not sure if i can ride with them tonight in state rival games worry me and i read delaney is banged up again listed as questionable if he cant go or isnt a 100% will be tough as vir has been strong at home

Bank...Good point..Re-thinking that game..

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 04:06 PM

Here are my write ups as promised. As usual any feedback is good feedback. Lets get em tonight!

1.Wake Forest +5.5 @ GT: This is an intriguing game to me. The line has already gone up 1 point from the opening line. Wake plays and shoots better on the road this year, but GT plays much better at home. GT has a big, athletic front line that can rebound with the best of them, but Wake has size too. To me these teams are almost one in the same. Big front lines, a raw athletic PG, and few shooters. I see this game being close all the way down to the end, and even if GT has the lead late and Wake is forced to foul GT is a miserable FT shooting team (59% in their last 5 games) and will struggle to stretch out their lead. I also see Ish Smith taking advantage of his experience in his matchup with the freshman PG Udofia for GT. Look for him to pressure the ball and force turnovers. I also like the matchup for Wake on the defensive end with L.D. Williams on Shumpert. Williams is underrated as a defender and an athlete, so I see him being able to control Shumpert. Rebounding will be the key. If Wake can battle on the boards and prevent second chance opportunities not only will they cover, but win outright. My play (not locked in yet, want to see if the line will move anymore) is Wake plus the points.

2.Virginia Tech +3 @ Virginia: In-state rivalry games are always a tough call, and this one is no different. In terms of athletes, VT has the superior team. The question is can VT keep their composure on the road. With no real good road wins to speak of, VT struggles a bit on the road (only road wins are at Penn State and Iowa). Virginia definitely plays better at home, but so does every team. They have played no one, and their conference record is a little inflated due to home wins at home versus GT and Miami, and a road win at NC St when they were struggling. All the signs from past trends say to take Virginia, but I think Virginia is caught up reading their own hype at this point. To this point they have overachieved most people’s standards. VT plays tough perimeter defense which should control Landesburg and force the Cavs to beat them inside. The key for VT will be Malcolm Delany. He is currently listed as questionable, but I not only expect him to play in this big game, but to show up big. In the past 2 years Delany has averaged 20.3 ppg in road conference games, so he plays better on the road. Virginia gets caught with their pants down in this one. My play locked in is VT +3.5 (bought the extra half for insurance. I like the over too, but probably won’t play it.

3.Central Michigan +6.5 @ Miami (OH): This line does not make much sense to me. On paper, Central Mich looks like the better team. I understand giving the edge in a push sort of game to the home team, but not this many points. Central Michigan has struggled on the road this season against lesser competition, which has scared me off this game a little. Both teams have strong ATS resumes, but one trend that did stick out was that road teams are 6-1 ATS in their last meetings. The Chips are led by their two guards, both of which can shoot the 3 (each over 41% on the season). Neither team is impressive, and in a battle of two subpar teams, 7 points just seems like too much, especially when the total will be around 110. If Central Mich gets to 55 points they should cover, and it’s hard to imagine them not reaching that number. Having said this my play is undecided. If I play it’ll be C. Mich +6.5.

4.Stanford +6 @ Arizona: Arizona has been on fire lately, and Stanford has been equally disappointing. Stanford has been awful on the road this season, both offensively and defensively. Defensively, they have given up an average of 85 ppg on the road this season. The are 0-6 SU on the road this season and 1-5 ATS on the road. Arizona’s defense isn’t much better, but they have more legitimate scoring threats. Arizona has been battle tested thus far with 5 of their first 7 conference games being on the road. They are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last 4, and they are coming off a huge upset victory on the road against their in-state conference rival Ariz St. Arizona has 4 players who average double figures, which for a team like Stanford that struggles on defense will be too tough to handle. Landry Fields is going to get his points for Stanford, but he struggles with his shooting on the road in conference (averages 18.3 ppg but on 37% shooting). Arizona’s balanced offensive attack is just too much for Stanford. My play locked in is Arizona -6.

5.Cal +3 @ Arizona State: Arizona State has been the most impressive team in the Pac 10 this season, and that is because of their defense. They are only allowing opponents to score 55 ppg on the season. However, Cal is a stronger offensive team than they are accustomed to. Cal has not been tested on the road yet this season. They have only played 2 road conference games, and they have struggled on the road. They have been outscored and outrebounded. Their defense is allowing close to 80 ppg. It is going to be tough for Cal to get to 60 points in this game due to the type of offense the Devils run. They are methodical and look to limit possessions of the other teams. They believe in their defense, and rightfully so. They have one of the best defenses in the nation and that starts with the pressure they put on the perimeter. It is hard for opposing teams to find open jump shots, which could frustrate Randle and Christopher. I love teams that play balanced on the offensive end and play great defense. I look for the Sun Devils to bounce back after a disappointing loss last time out. I like Arizona State big in this game. My play locked in is Arizona State -3.

6.Ole Miss -4 @ Auburn: This line seems a little low for me, which makes me weary after the Temple loss last night. Just like in that game these the road favorite just looks like the better team far and away. Ole Miss is a great team that no one is talking about. All of their losses this year have come to ranked opponents (3 of the 4 on the road). Auburn on the other hand is real bad. Not only do they have a terrible record, but they have played no one. I just can’t figure Auburn out. They have 4 players that average double figures, yet they still lose games they should not, and sometimes they look ugly doing it. Both teams have good offenses that are guard oriented, but I like Ole Miss’s defense just a little better. Auburn has a very opportunistic defense that has to force turnovers to be successful, but I like the road tested team to be able to handle their pressure. The Rebels have struggle in the past ATS as road favorites, which plants a seed of doubt in my head. I think Ole Miss will handle the Auburn pressure and prove to be too much for the Tigers. But I’m just not sure. I’m going to act on the lesson I learned from Temple last night. If the line seems too good to be true, it probably is. My play is NO PLAY. My lean however is still toward Ole Miss.

Still may play 1 or 2 more but they will probably be played on a gut instinct. No real need to write those up because the write up will not match up with the pick. Still like the under in USF/SH, but the stats and trends are saying over. Still leaning Siena on a hunch. GL to all tonight.

RetardStrength · 01-28-10, 04:59 PM

Edit your post... AZ ST @ -3...

Nice write-ups. Like your plays but I might fade you on Wake...

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by RetardStrength

Edit your post... AZ ST @ -3...

Nice write-ups. Like your plays but I might fade you on Wake...

Changed it. Thanks.

Regul8er · 01-28-10, 05:22 PM

Nice writeups.......I'm with you on Wake, and I'm likely going to add Arizona St.

Goodluck tonight boss.

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Nice writeups.......I'm with you on Wake, and I'm likely going to add Arizona St.

Goodluck tonight boss.

Glad I could help. BOL tonight

2daBank · 01-28-10, 05:50 PM

i notice you bought a half with VT to make it 3.5 while i understand why some ppl do this in the long run this is a strategy that will cost you more than it will win you...i know a push is no fun and i used to do this as well then a wise man explained to me how the times this actually gets the win are outweighed by the extra juice you are paying on your losses....always buy the hook to prevent a loss never to get the win...hope this makes sense...gl with your card tonight

dukeblue888 · 01-28-10, 05:55 PM

Virginia is not a good team. VT has too good of a defense. thieir record dosnt prove anything they have had a few bad losses go with the hokies

CHI-TOWN ROOKIE · 01-28-10, 06:05 PM

What you got bank. Im taking your picks any day on ncaa hoops.

Snowball · 01-28-10, 06:06 PM

I don't think Arizona State should be laying any points in this match vs. Cali.
They lost by 19 less than a week ago at home to Arizona.
Cali can outscore Arizona State, and win.

2daBank · 01-28-10, 06:07 PM

not playing much chi town..tough card to me im finishing up right now will post in a few minutes

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

i notice you bought a half with VT to make it 3.5 while i understand why some ppl do this in the long run this is a strategy that will cost you more than it will win you...i know a push is no fun and i used to do this as well then a wise man explained to me how the times this actually gets the win are outweighed by the extra juice you are paying on your losses....always buy the hook to prevent a loss never to get the win...hope this makes sense...gl with your card tonight

I rarely do it either. I just see this game coming down to the wire. Having more than one possession worth of points made sense at the time I locked in. Oh well, I hope I will not need it. Either way, thanks for the insight and the help. I appreciate you and everyone else who reads the write ups. Thanks again and GL tonight.

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

I don't think Arizona State should be laying any points in this match vs. Cali. They lost by 19 less than a week ago at home to Arizona. Cali can outscore Arizona State, and win.

Not only has Cal played poorly on the road, they have rarely played on the road period. If the az st defense shows up it could be a long night for Cal. But I agree. Cal does have the offensive fire power to outscore just about anyone, but I just do not see it happening to night. I also took the loss to AZ at home into account. I think Az St comes out looking for pay back.

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 06:24 PM

Card for 1/28:

1. Wake +5.5
2. VT +3.5
3. AZ -6
4. AZ St -3
5. Siena -6 (strictly a gut pick)

Maybe 1 more for the late tips. Working on UCLA/Oregon, and Gonzaga/Santa Clara

Snowball · 01-28-10, 06:43 PM

Dukeblue, who has California lost to on the road ?
Answer: Kansas, New Mexico, and Washington
Not slouch teams.
Yet their road victories are only Pacific and Washington St.
Check out Cali's schedule upcoming. Tonight is their first of four road games in a row. Is that brutal or what. I hope they are prepped mentally.
I am of the opinion that Cali is the premier team in the PAC-10.
Battle between 1st and 2nd PAC-10 tonight so def not an easy call
I've read many articles about this Cali team being on the verge of a breakout into the Top 25.. you know they have the talent..

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

Dukeblue, who has California lost to on the road ? Answer: Kansas, New Mexico, and Washington Not slouch teams. Yet their road victories are only Pacific and Washington St. Check out Cali's schedule upcoming. Tonight is their first of four road games in a row. Is that brutal or what. I hope they are prepped mentally. I am of the opinion that Cali is the premier team in the PAC-10. Battle between 1st and 2nd PAC-10 tonight so def not an easy call I've read many articles about this Cali team being on the verge of a breakout into the Top 25.. you know they have the talent..

I'm going with defense and the home team in this one. A good defense beats a good offense most of the time, especially when that good defense is at home. Cal may have played good teams but they have not played nearly to their capability on the road. It is tough to play on the road no matter who the opponent is. One of the reasons for that is shooting in an unfamiliar gym. I like this to be close til the end, and az st stretches it out with FTs. GL to you.

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 09:03 PM

Card for 1/28:

1. Wake +5.5
2. VT +3.5
3. AZ -6
4. AZ St -3
5. Siena -6 (strictly a gut pick)

That's 3 gut picks in a row (W. Car, Ball St, and now Siena)

1-0. Wake's looking like a loss, but VT just took the lead!

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 09:08 PM

Card for 1/28:

1. Wake +5.5
2. VT +3.5
3. AZ -6
4. AZ St -3
5. Siena -6 (strictly a gut pick)

And VT is in OT!!! The last thing I wanted!

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 09:24 PM

1. Wake +5.5
2. VT +3.5
3. AZ -6
4. AZ St -3
5. Siena -6 (strictly a gut pick)

Now I need one of the AZ teams to cover for a winning day, preferably both!

Dukebluejms · 01-28-10, 09:54 PM

Adding one more game for tonight:

6. Under 150.5 Long Beach St/CS Northridge

Snowball · 01-28-10, 10:40 PM

California 78
Arizona St 70

gl with the Long Beach game under

Dukebluejms · 01-29-10, 08:12 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

California 78
Arizona St 70

gl with the Long Beach game under

Yep. Good Call

. I expected Az St to play better. Oh well, still had a winning night. Hope you had a winning night too.

Dukebluejms · 01-29-10, 08:14 AM

1. Wake +5.5
2. VT +3.5
3. AZ -6
4. AZ St -3
5. Siena -6 (strictly a gut pick)
6. LBS/CS Northridge under 150.5

4-2 last night. Should have listened to Snowball on Cal, and I never expected Wake to shoot so poorly. Oh well, another positive night makes me 27-19-1 YTD.