Penn +7

sportsguy04 · 01-25-10, 11:47 AM

Good RLM. BOL!

strictlywinners · 01-25-10, 11:52 AM

hahaha, I was on this way before the reverse line movement, and your the only one that knows from the PM this morning, this is a very very strong play.

Wilforth · 01-25-10, 12:06 PM

Good!

sportsguy04 · 01-25-10, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

hahaha, I was on this way before the reverse line movement, and your the only one that knows from the PM this morning, this is a very very strong play.

Yes I know. No I meant, with the public pounding away on St. Joe, line has dropped by 2 points! Penn looks to be the play.

strictlywinners · 01-25-10, 12:14 PM

Well it might of dropped a little because of the hammer me and my guys dropped on it.

Big Dave's Picks · 01-25-10, 12:23 PM

Can you guys explain to me why Penn +5 would be the right play. Because St. Joes coming off big win or because their bad road record. Penn is equally just as bad especially at home. Just curious, bol tonight on all your plays and look forward to working together.

strictlywinners · 01-25-10, 12:27 PM

Dave, don't really like to get into explanations. All that matters is outcome. Good luck to you and I will say that yes it does have something to do with St Joe's getting win as big dog at home. There is a little bit more to it then that, but thats def. part of it.

rochestertitans · 01-25-10, 12:37 PM

thats one of my top plays to!! I see um winning outright

strictlywinners · 01-25-10, 12:45 PM

As do I, I actually have them winning quite convincingly. Lets get em Titans.

Slim · 01-25-10, 12:54 PM

St. J's are a good team.

rochestertitans · 01-25-10, 12:57 PM

penn wins by 5

strictlywinners · 01-25-10, 12:57 PM

We will just have to wait and see I guess.

MC PICKS · 01-25-10, 01:03 PM

I like Penn at 7.5. Line moving down is a trap to get people to bite on St Joes. Although I am glad I grabbed it early cause I would be a little skeptical to take it now.

sportsguy04 · 01-25-10, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by Slim

St. J's are a good team.

lol.

floridagolfer · 01-25-10, 02:19 PM

Penn is something like 1-12 and it's a poor defensive team, allowing its opponents to hit a collective 50 percent from the field. I wouldn't get too excited about putting my money on a group like that.

strictlywinners · 01-25-10, 03:43 PM

I guess thats why you are not me. I've got 5k Penn +7. So hopefully I'm right and your wrong.

linedrivr · 01-25-10, 04:15 PM

How anyone could justify a wager of any amount on Penn is beyond me much less 5k...wow. now that takes some big Cojones!

Does Penn's short bench not scare you? Active roster might be fill-ins from intramural rec teams....

not to mention their head coach got canned a month ago and an assistant is filling in. If you got $5k riding on Penn, you must have inside info, refs in your pockets and St Joes players on the take. maybe you will need all of the above. I wish you the best of luck. I hope your wager cashes for you. here's to sweatin 5k

Injury report taken from Statfox today.

Injury List - Penn
out - F - Sean Mullen (thumb)
out - F - Mike Howlett (foot)
out - F - Larry Loughery (groin)
out - C - Andreas Shreiber (shoulder)
out - G - Tyler Bernardini (foot)
out - G - Carson Sullivan (possible transfer)

Injury List - ST Joes
NONE

Snowball · 01-25-10, 04:30 PM

I'm VERY heavy on St. Joe's today ML and -3,-5,-5.5

good luck with Penn

couldn't disagree more.

D3 Mighty Ducks · 01-25-10, 04:35 PM

There is no way someone would ever put 5k on a 1-12 college basketball team. Until I found this thread BOL Buddy

spargament · 01-25-10, 04:35 PM

hahah people are funny. Penn plus the points

strictlywinners · 01-25-10, 04:42 PM

They are funny right spargament, last year was much worse when I was actually putting in screen shots of my bets, so people would believe it. No matter how much people lose, they still don't understand, that prior performance and record is irrelevant, the bet may win the bet may lose, but I feel I have found a signifigant advantage in this one, so I bet accordingly.

Snowball · 01-25-10, 04:50 PM

you have an advantage ? Penn has one win all year - against a junior community college. lol. St. Joseph's had a road win in November, they beat BC.
Joseph's is coming off two wins, vs Towson AND Dayton, yes DAYTON.
Penn has no game. NONE. This could be a blowout.
good luck (again).

linedrivr · 01-25-10, 04:51 PM

with a gun to my head and forced to make a wager on this game, I would lean to the over. short bench and fear of foul trouble for the few 'real' players Penn will dress, they can't afford to play defense. now if they can shoot 75% from the field and avoid turnovers on offense, I give them a shot. but those are BIG IFS.

u never know though, thats why they play the games.

strictlywinners · 01-25-10, 04:59 PM

Snowball, I give you small hint into how I cap, past results have very little to do with it. If gambling was as easy as taking the team with the better record everyone would be a winner. I cap the game based on each individual game, factors that are going on with the players. And a few other bits of info I get. I'm not knocking your style, and if it works for you that is great, but its just not how I do things.

linedrivr · 01-25-10, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

They are funny right spargament, last year was much worse when I was actually putting in screen shots of my bets, so people would believe it. No matter how much people lose, they still don't understand, that prior performance and record is irrelevant, the bet may win the bet may lose, but I feel I have found a signifigant advantage in this one, so I bet accordingly.

please enlighten me on your significant advantage for Penn. I have looked at every angle and can't find one other than the big home win letdown scenario for St Joes which I believe is a false nail to hang your hat on do to the Penn roster injuries. What am I missing???

Snowball · 01-25-10, 05:24 PM

disagreement is what makes a line a line..
"past" performance is probably the largest factor in my analysis.
St. Joseph's has obviously started doing something right over the last week
and I do not believe Penn has what it takes to stop them. GL.

strictlywinners · 01-25-10, 05:25 PM

Tru Tru, like I said we all have different strategies, and many of them work. I wish you luck my man. Just hope your not as lucky as me tonight.

spartangreen · 01-25-10, 05:39 PM

be interesting to watch the line and see if there is a jump right before tip. I got St. Joe at -5, so if they win by 6 we will all be right.

linedrivr · 01-25-10, 05:42 PM

Somethings up because the public is all over St Joes yet the line is moving the other way.

Vegas playing head games here? still a pass for me regardless.

Brewers in 7 · 01-25-10, 05:44 PM

Im on Penn tonight, Big 5 game in the Palestra that place will be rockin, cant see anything but a nailbiter there

mlb · 01-25-10, 05:59 PM

I like Penn for a few reasons and am skeptable for a few others:

Penn:
Line opened at +7, despite the public laying 90% on St. Joes, the line has moved down to +5.5 at my book and +5 at others. Fishy?

This is a possible trap game. Yes St. Joes beat BC (early) and are coming off of wins vs. Towson and Dayton (both at home... Dayton isn't that strong away from home), but they could have a possible let down on the road vs. an INFERIOR Penn team.

These are the types of games where Vegas is genius and the public is not. Your not going to tell me that Vegas is just going to give away money by making them small favorites with the crazy good looking line towards St. Joe's. Some other variable is involved that makes me lean towards Penn.

Now, the injury factor that was posted:

Originally posted by linedrivr

Injury report taken from Statfox today.

Injury List - Penn
out - F - Sean Mullen (thumb)
out - F - Mike Howlett (foot)
out - F - Larry Loughery (groin)
out - C - Andreas Shreiber (shoulder)
out - G - Tyler Bernardini (foot)
out - G - Carson Sullivan (possible transfer)

Injury List - ST Joes
NONE

Injury List - Penn
out - F - Sean Mullen (thumb) 9 Minutes Played
out - F - Mike Howlett (foot) 7 Games Played
out - F - Larry Loughery (groin) 3 Games Played
out - C - Andreas Shreiber (shoulder) 2 Games Played
out - G - Tyler Bernardini (foot) 2 Games Played
out - G - Carson Sullivan (possible transfer) 6 Games Played

To say that these injuries matter at the current game is a little far fetched. They have not had these players for numerous games. (They still suck either way)

St. Joes:
They are a far superior team.

The line looks amazing at -5.5 and going down?

My play:
Although I haven't decided if I will play, I'm leaning towards Penn for the above reasons and from my read I feel a Penn upset. They will be at home (not the best homecourt advantage) but they live and die by the 3 and I think with the crowd only helping them they cover and possibly pull out a victory.

spartangreen · 01-25-10, 06:10 PM

There will be alot of St.Joes fan's there to, its closer to a neutral game than a home game.

pace · 01-25-10, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by Slim

St. J's are a good team.

Um, no they aren't. But still, they should win this easily. Probably more St. Joe's fans at the game anyway. Penn may be the best 1-12 team in the nation though.

$Burm$ · 01-25-10, 06:18 PM

i wouldnt say theyll win easily, id still take penn +5.5....HUGE letdown game for St. Joe's, Penn is going to slow the crap out of this game and make St. Joes play there style, I like the under in this one...would be on penn +7 if i couldve gotten it, but i guess ill settle for the under here