Total of the Day

sportsfan2009 · 01-11-10, 01:25 PM

nice write up thanks

BiffTFinancial · 01-11-10, 01:41 PM

this was actually my favorite total on the board in the limited time i've had to look thusfar. i cap it at 78-74. agree about SJSU's defensive issues on the road. good write-up and BOL tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-12-10, 12:01 AM

150.

1-0 (+1.00)

spartangreen · 01-12-10, 12:06 AM

nice call a ton of points there in the final few minutes

southpaw74 · 01-12-10, 12:08 AM

Good call eagle!! My book didn't have that total available for me to play but thanks for the writeup and congrats!!

jnickell100 · 01-12-10, 01:48 AM

ya nice hit. I had the over too and it was not looking good at all at half but both teams came out and played good offense.

thenry2289 · 01-12-10, 01:53 AM

Can't wait to see the success that u are going to have!! When will you post your next pick??

50cent · 01-12-10, 08:18 AM

nice hit..

BigAL · 01-12-10, 09:34 AM

way to go

Busterflywheel · 01-12-10, 10:53 AM

Nice call EP

EaglesPhan36 · 01-12-10, 03:09 PM

Might be sitting today out. The one total I had marked has been steamed to all hell in the upward direction taking the value out of the original line - Tennessee State/Iowa started at 132, up 3.5 points now. F me. Had one other one that I am hammering the numbers on for a potential play.

2daBank · 01-12-10, 03:15 PM

thats what i hate about college totals most the time there are guys smarter than me sitting around at 5 o'clock waiting for the next days totals and betting the shit out of the right side and driving the total all out of whack...i mean have you seen how fast totals move when they 1st get released? its crazy

EaglesPhan36 · 01-12-10, 05:26 PM

Well most of the others have been hovering around their original lines or within a point, the Iowa one is just ridonkulous. Most of the lines today look pretty spot on with no big edges.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-13-10, 06:31 PM

1.13.10: Georgia Tech/Virginia OVER 132.5 (-111)
An interesting stylistic clash when Georgia Tech heads to Charlottesville to do battle with the Virginia Cavaliers. Paul Hewitt's squad ranks in the Top 50 as far as tempo is concerned. That means the Jackets like to push the ball and get more possessions than their opponents. That means plenty of touches for the Jackets' leading scorer, forward Gani Lawal. He averages 15.7 ppg and is coming into this contest off three straight twenty-plus point performances. Georgia Tech is stacked inside with Derrick Favors adding 11.7 ppg and 8.7 rebounds as they are two of four Yellow Jacket players to average double figures. As a result, the 20th ranked squad in the country is averaging 76.1 ppg on 46% shooting. Offensively, they are efficient as they put up 1.07 points per possession. On the road this season, Georgia Tech has played just three "true" road contests - averaging 79 ppg. They have allowed 204 points in those three games, an average of 68 ppg. That could fall right in line with Virginia and what the Cavaliers have done at home. Overall, they average 70.4 ppg on 46% shooting and hit over 42% from distance. The Jackets defense will provide them with a stout test as they yield just 36% shooting to their opponents. Virginia has been steady at home though, hitting for more than 66 points in their last five at John Paul Jones Arena. Sophomore Sylven Landesberg leads the Cavs with a 17 ppg average. Mike Scott provides the inside muscle with 13.8 ppg and 8.6 rebounds to lead Virginia in that category. Georgia Tech has been effective on defense, allowing just .86 points per possession (www.kenpom.com), while Virginia nets 1.119 points per possession on offense in an effective half court offense under Coach Tony Bennett. Tech averages a shade over 72 possessions per game, while Virginia as expected has far less at just over 63. Factor in then that Tech has a 1.074 PPP on offense versus Virginia's .962 on defense for an average of 1.018 PPP. On the other side, it's UVA's 1.119 PPP on offense against Tech's .860 PPP for an average of 0.9895. If you add those two together, 1.018 + 0.9895, you get an average right around 1 PPP for the total of 135 possessions these two teams combine. So the total reasonably could just slip past the number of 133. Expecting this to be a close one, so I believe free throws may finish off the OVER.

BiffTFinancial · 01-13-10, 06:36 PM

like it a lot. rooting for whistles. BOL to you tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-13-10, 06:38 PM

Thanks and I actually just got it at 132.5, hopefully that will help if needed!

BiffTFinancial · 01-13-10, 06:43 PM

was actually stuck getting it at 133'. capped it at 72-71, so hoping we've got room to spare. time to upgrade to a book that posts totals earlier, though. matters more now that conference hoops season is here. the St Louis/Duquesne total has moved almost 9 points since opening. talk about giving away value...

EaglesPhan36 · 01-13-10, 06:49 PM

What way did that one go? Down to 129.5? Or up? I have it finishing in the low 120s. Took it for a contest at that number.

BiffTFinancial · 01-13-10, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

What way did that one go? Down to 129.5? Or up? I have it finishing in the low 120s. Took it for a contest at that number.

supposedly opened 121 at places that offered it that early. it was 123 early afternoon then went through the roof.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-13-10, 10:22 PM

157.

2-0 (+2.00)

That St.Louis one was ridiculous. Didn't even clear the number in OT. But blasted it in double OT.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-14-10, 05:03 PM

1.14.10: FRESNO STATE/LOUISIANA TECH OVER 140.5 (-108)

WAC conference play continues tonight with a Bulldogs battle between Fresno State and Louisiana Tech in Ruston, Louisiana. As per the usual formula for finding an OVER that has a tasty shot to hit, we look to the Pomeroy Rankings first and foremost. The hosts, Louisiana Tech, average a shade over 70 possessions per game and a stout 1.108 points per offensive possession which fits well into the criteria I like. That criteria being that both teams should definitely possess offenses that average more than one point possession and if possible. This works here as Fresno State slings up 1.031 PPP (points per possession) on offense. Louisiana Tech's defense is giving up .968 PPP, while Fresno State yields .967 PPP on defense. Fresno State averages just under 67 possessions per contest. So using our formula from the Pomeroy Rankings, we find that La.Tech's average between their offense and Fresno State's defense should be about 1.0375 points per possession. Fresno's number comes out just under 1 PPP at 0.9995. The average together would be 1.0185 multiplied by the average of 137 possessions between the two to come out with a predicted score of around 139 points. That falls slightly below the number, but then we consider the other factors. Fresno State averages 68.9 ppg on 45.6% shooting from the floor and has seen half their six road games go over tonight's number. The good news there is that the half came against teams like Louisiana Tech that will push the tempo. Fresno is led by sophomore Paul George's 17.9 ppg. George has scored 20 or better in 4 of the last 6 for the Bulldogs. As a whole, the team has scored 70 or better in their last four in a row. They face a Louisiana Tech defense that is yielding 70 ppg and sometimes has trouble defending the three (36.9%). Fresno has three shooters who can better than 40% from deep, including George, Mike Ladd and Steven Shepp. Tech will look to push it at home where they average over 84 ppg. That is four points better than their season average of 80.4 ppg. Tech shoots around 48% from the field on the season and is led by Kyle Gibson's robust 21.1 ppg. All five startes for Tech average in double figures and will look to tackle a Fresno State defense that is only giving up 40% shooting on the season (63.8 ppg), but has struggled a bit on the road in giving up 72 or better in four of six. 12 of Tech's 18 games overall have hit better than tonight's total and the Bulldogs have been involved in games of 142 or better in 5 of 7 at home with the two misses hitting at 137 and 141. Lousiana Tech has scored 76 or better in 11 of their last 12 overall andso long as they dictate tempo to their liking, they should find a number in that range or better tonight against Fresno. If they can hit that number and give up around their average of 70 to Fresno then this should shoot past and cash the over.

spartangreen · 01-14-10, 05:04 PM

Thats my biggest play tonight EP, lets cash it. Good luck

EaglesPhan36 · 01-14-10, 05:37 PM

Sweet. Let's do it! The other one I liked, but slightly less is Santa Clara/Pepperdine Over 138.

spartangreen · 01-14-10, 05:39 PM

yeah i am looking at that one to, been alot of Pepperdine games this season that were high scoring.

sportsfan2009 · 01-14-10, 05:41 PM

i like frenso st over tonight too

EaglesPhan36 · 01-14-10, 05:44 PM

Pepperdine at home especially. Both teams suck at life on offense, but their defenses are poor enough to give up points. I think it's got a shot for a total in the 140s. I think since two low totals to start the season, home Pepperdine games have hit 140 or better for the majority in the last 8.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-14-10, 11:10 PM

154. MASSIVE 2nd half, 95 points to get it done.

3-0 (+3.00)

sportsfan2009 · 01-14-10, 11:14 PM

Nice 1 nice 1 nice 1 yes yes sorry i am excited i won the under 2nd half for the michigan game by 2 pts

EaglesPhan36 · 01-15-10, 11:46 AM

Today may be a potential skip day. Only one total I am looking at, gonna track the movement on it for a bit before settling on play or no play today.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-16-10, 03:47 PM

1.14.10: Maryland/Boston College OVER 144 (-110)
You start here with two efficient offensive clubs as Maryland nets 1.134 points per possession and BC, 1.086. Both defenses are good, but can give up points. Maryland averaging .927 PPP on defense, while BC allows .956. Per game, these two teams combine to average around 138 possessions. The PPP formulas for the two teams (Maryland O/BC D & BC O/Maryland D) average out to 1.026 PPP. Applying that to the number of possesions, that would hit for about 141 points. Slightly below the number. Then we add in other factors - Maryland has hit for 69 points or more in all 15 games, better than 70 in 14 of 15 and 77 or more in 8 of their last 9. BC meanwhile has been solid at home, scoring 73.4 ppg. Against up tempo squads similar to Maryland, BC has seen totals of 161 with S.Carolina, 146 with UMASS & 149 with Rhode Island. In three true road games, Maryland totals have beaten today's total all three times. Boston College runs hot & cold as they were dominated on the road in their last two by Duke & Clemson. Still back at home, look for them to rebound here and if they can crack the 70 point barrier, I believe Maryland has the weapons to do the rest.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-16-10, 05:51 PM

3-1 (+2.90)

Well BC sucked today and didn't keep it close enough to where FTs would have helped. 130 points.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-17-10, 01:02 PM

1.15.10: Loyola (MD)/St.Peter's OVER 116 (-110)
Loyola averages 66.6 possessions per game. St. Peter's, 64.4. for a total of 130 possessions between the two. St.Peter's is one of the worst points per possession offensive teams in D1 at .916. Loyola is a little better at .933. Defensively, Loyola gives up .975 PPP, while St.Peter's yields .962. Combined together, the offense vs. defense PPP average is .945. With 130 possessions, that comes out to about 123 points. Well above the posted number. At home, St.Peter's has played to totals better than this number in 4 of 7. Loyola on the road has played better than this total in 7 of 10. Couple in that St.Peter's comes in off their two solid offensive games with 77 & 90 (64 in regulation) points and this should have a legit shot.

t-bone · 01-17-10, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

1.15.10: Loyola (MD)/St.Peter's OVER 116 (-110)
Loyola averages 66.6 possessions per game. St. Peter's, 64.4. for a total of 130 possessions between the two. St.Peter's is one of the worst points per possession offensive teams in D1 at .916. Loyola is a little better at .933. Defensively, Loyola gives up .975 PPP, while St.Peter's yields .962. Combined together, the offense vs. defense PPP average is .945. With 130 possessions, that comes out to about 123 points. Well above the posted number. At home, St.Peter's has played to totals better than this number in 4 of 7. Loyola on the road has played better than this total in 7 of 10. Couple in that St.Peter's comes in off their two solid offensive games with 77 & 90 (64 in regulation) points and this should have a legit shot.

My play of the day Eagles.......best of luck

BiffTFinancial · 01-17-10, 01:34 PM

like it, EaglePhan. looks like a close game in the 60s, so tailing you and t-bone. BOL today.