Big Monday TRY-fecta

Peyton2MarvinN06 · 01-29-07, 02:36 PM

Hey bud, I'm liking the under play in that Nova/Pitt game and also I'm on that San Diego line as well... However, I think Nebraska covers tonight @ home and possibly wins the game outright... Best of luck today!

bigboydan · 01-29-07, 05:03 PM

Oh man guys... I actually am liking that over in that pitt/nova game. I think this will be an up tempo type game, and Nova will shoot a lot of 3's tonight make make up for the lack of size in there inside game.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-30-07, 02:03 AM

3-0. There's no where to go but down from here!

bigboydan · 01-30-07, 02:16 AM

very nice bud

EaglesPhan36 · 02-05-07, 04:07 PM

Figured I'd just update the same thread as to not have to explain the system each time. Let's roll on another Big Monday and see how we do.

BIG MONDAY - FEB.5

Syracuse (+4)@UConn

When I saw this line, I liked it immediately. Yes, 'Cuse is inconsistent, but they clearly have a team more capable of a win or at the least a cover in this series. UConn is no longer the dominant team at home that they've been in the past few seasons. The Huskies have covered just 2 of their last 10 games, including NOT COVERING 4 straight at home. 'Cuse while struggling outside the Carrier Dome have gone 2-1-1 ATS in their last four road games.

**If you have the balls, try 'Cuse on the ML!**

Texas@TexasA&M - Over138

Trickiest pick of the three games to me. A&M is on a high after beating Kansas on the road. Texas is off a disappointing home loss to Kansas State. A&M has also been dominating at home this year, but I can't honestly say I think they'll win this game comfortably enough to go with the point spread. Instead, I'll probably buck the trend most will go with in this one and take the OVER. Surprisingly because of how much you hear about A&M's defense, their games have gone over in 8 of the last 11. I think UT has enough offense to put up around 70 and I think the Aggies will get into the 70s as well.

Gonzaga@Loyola Marymount Over145.5

I waffled on this one for awhile as well and with the resurgent Zags covering their last two impressively on the road, I'm suggesting to steer clear of taking a side in this one. Instead, I'll go with a Big Monday trend for the Zags and take the over. In their 4 match-ups on Big Monday, the game totals have been 121, 155 - fixed from earlier misprint, 148 & 173. The last three coming on the road.

Razz · 02-05-07, 10:30 PM

Nice job with this over, might have been the best play on the board tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-06-07, 02:03 AM

1-2 for the night. Got the one I had the least confidence in and screwed the other two. Shoulda just gone with the right trend and taken LMU and the points!

Overall: 4-2

See you for the next Big Monday.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-12-07, 12:21 PM

Another slate of games for Big Monday. These might be the trickiest so far, but here we go.

BIG MONDAY - FEB.12

Louisville@Pittsbrugh Under 126

It doesn't matter if David Padgett plays or not for Louisville in this one. The under seems like the best option. Louisville has gone under in 6 of 7 road games. They average 5 pts less on the road, but haven't played a D as tough as Pitt's. Pitt does score more at home, but Louisville has a respectable defense that has allowed less than 60 ppg on the road this season.

Oklahoma State@Texas (-6.5)

Calling Okie State dreadful on the road might be giving them too much credit. They've failed to cover in 4 straight road games in the Big 12, losing all of those straight up. The over is tempting in this one, but remember that the total without the 3 OTs in Stillwater sat at 142 which is closer to where tonight's total would probably be if not for that thriller back in mid-January. Go with the Horns.

Santa Clara@Gonzaga -6.5

Toughest pick of the 3 for me. If not for the Heytvelt suspension, I think Gonzaga would be a double digit favorite and based on past Big Mondays - Santa Clara would have been the easy pick. The Zags beat SC on their home floor in January by 8. The Zags are 5-3-1 ATS at home and haven't lost there straight up this season. Take the Zags minus the points.

LT Profits · 02-12-07, 01:46 PM

I am on the Gonzaga OVER myself Eagle, even without Heytvelt. Reasoning is in Parlay thread.

bigboydan · 02-12-07, 05:26 PM

I'm not really sure what to think about that Zags/Broncos game. Probably best for me to just pass on that game.

BOL to you Eagles

AC1318 · 02-12-07, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I don't know about anyone else, but Big Monday is probably my favorite college hoops night of the week. So I figured I'd give a hand at capping the three TV games and see how much of a schmuck I am. All input & feedback welcomed!

Pitt@Villanova - Under135

The Big East has been an "under" conference so far this season in conference play. Pitt has played the under in 6 of its 8 league games and in all 3 Big East road tilts. 'Nova is also under in 6 of its 8 BE games even though their totals are usually 10-15 points higher than Pitt's. The deciding factor in taking the under for me: Pitt's physical defense. While 'Nova can and will try to push the tempo and trends toward higher scores at home, they have not faced this stiff a defense this year.

Kansas (-5.5)@Nebraska

This is the toughest call of the night for the three games. KU has been a mediocre road team at-best this season and Nebraska is tough at home, losing just one game out of ten. That was a one point loss to Texas. I think the A&M showdown for KU next Saturday is far enough away, that there is no let down tonight. Plus they have owned Nebraska in this series historically, losing just once in their last 16 games I believe. They'll get everything Nebraska has, but I think they sneak in the cover.

San Diego (+12.5)@Gonzaga

Anyone who has followed this year's Gonzaga team knows they're not your typical Gonzaga powerhouse that kills anything and everything in the WCC. I think this is another prime spot to take the points and Gonzaga's opponent. The Zags have not covered any of their three Big Monday games and San Diego has covered 4 of their last 5 road games, including 3 of 4 in league play. The 4th they missed a push by half a point in OT vs. San Francisco.

My rating system for these picks:

Highest Risk of the Night: One Unit

Solid Bet: 1 or 2 Units

Best Bet of the Night: 2 or more Units

What about the fact of suspensions for gonzaga or were they served and finished

EaglesPhan36 · 02-12-07, 08:38 PM

AC that's old info you quoted. If you are speaking about tonight's game - like I said, Heytvelt is still out due to suspension, but I think at home they are the better option to cover.

Razz · 02-12-07, 09:43 PM

Are you this good the rest of the week?

EaglesPhan36 · 02-12-07, 11:21 PM

I wish! I have been rolling since yesterday though, 7 straight winners - 6 totals and just one side (Davidson tonight) - and I even went with the under in the OSU-Texas game in place of taking a side. I'm thinking about joining LT with the over for the Gonzaga-SC game, but decisions decisions.

Check that - after more research not touching the total on the Gonzaga game.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-13-07, 10:52 AM

2-1 last night and we got the two biggest bets, losing out on just the one unit clunker from Gonzaga.

Overall: 6-3

EaglesPhan36 · 02-19-07, 12:16 PM

Love me some Big Monday!

Villanova@Marquette Under 131.5

Tempted to take Nova +3 with the way Marquette has been playing lately, but going to go with the Big East under trend that has served me well. Nova has gone under in 6 of their last 7 and Marquette has hit under in 3 straight at home. It's gonna be a nail biter if the under hits, but that's the play here.

Kansas@Kansas State Over 135.5

Again steering clear of a side, but would lean to KU in this one. Like the over in this one the best as these two teams combined for 167 points in a 27 pt Jayhawks win earlier this season. Other than that, trends would indicate this game more toward the under. But my gut tells me over and so we go with the gut.

San Francisco +5.5 @ St.Mary's

This is a case of going with the hot team. SF has won 5 of its last 6 and St.Mary's is going the other way having lost 4 straight and 5 of its last 6. SF is also shooting the rock better at a 48% clip over the last 5, while St.Mary's is struggling to score, shooting just 38% over that same span. These two teams went to OT in their first meeting @SF with St.Mary's prevailing in OT by 7. I'm looking for SF to at least get the cover and perhaps pull of the upset if you're looking for a good ML opportunity tonight.

LT Profits · 02-19-07, 01:22 PM

I agree on your two bigger bets Eagle, and I think that Kansas State shocks the world in the other game!

bigboydan · 02-19-07, 05:18 PM

I like your Don's play tonight Eagle.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-20-07, 09:56 AM

A real craptacular night on Monday. 0 for 3.

Overall: 6-6

LT Profits · 02-20-07, 11:52 AM

You are not alone Eagle. My day started out so good too with a dramatic NHL afternoon winner with the Islanders. Then I made the books very happy with an 0-4 night!

Oh well, NEXT!!

EaglesPhan36 · 02-26-07, 10:17 AM

Trying to bounce back after last week's 0-for-3.

Georgetown@Syracuse Under 134

Despite the Big East under trend not hitting last week, I still feel like this is the play to make tonight for this game. These are two of the better defensive teams in the conference. 'Cuse has gone under in 4 of the last 5 and the Hoyas in 3 of their last 4. Georgetown also hasn't allowed an opponent to so much as sniff the 40% FG mark from the floor in about a month.

Kansas@Oklahoma Under129

This is a game where I think you could win taking Kansas minus 7 points or the under. I'm going with the under because that trend is a little more in our favor. Kansas has gone under in 9 of 12 road games and OU is under in 8 of 10 home games. Sooners also struggled to put up 58 against an average Texas defense in their last home game.

Long Beach State (-1.5)@Pacific

No West Coast Conference in the Big Monday finale gives this night a different feel, but gives us the game I like the most. I won't over analyze this one. LB State beat Pacific by 28 points just three weeks ago. Home court advantage means something, but almost a 30 point swing? Seems to good to be true, but I think LB gets this done.

LT Profits · 02-26-07, 11:24 AM

The only one of these games that I played is Kansas, and I went with the Jayhawks side at -7. Reasoning is in Parlay thread.

bigboydan · 02-26-07, 01:19 PM

i respectfully disagree with your KU/OU total Mr.Eagles. I'm actually liking the over 129 in that game.

babaoriley · 02-26-07, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Trying to bounce back after last week's 0-for-3.

Georgetown@Syracuse Under 134

Despite the Big East under trend not hitting last week, I still feel like this is the play to make tonight for this game. These are two of the better defensive teams in the conference. 'Cuse has gone under in 4 of the last 5 and the Hoyas in 3 of their last 4. Georgetown also hasn't allowed an opponent to so much as sniff the 40% FG mark from the floor in about a month.

Kansas@Oklahoma Under129

This is a game where I think you could win taking Kansas minus 7 points or the under. I'm going with the under because that trend is a little more in our favor. Kansas has gone under in 9 of 12 road games and OU is under in 8 of 10 home games. Sooners also struggled to put up 58 against an average Texas defense in their last home game.

Long Beach State (-1.5)@Pacific

No West Coast Conference in the Big Monday finale gives this night a different feel, but gives us the game I like the most. I won't over analyze this one. LB State beat Pacific by 28 points just three weeks ago. Home court advantage means something, but almost a 30 point swing? Seems to good to be true, but I think LB gets this done.

That Texas defense was far better than average on Saturday. Texas played very well defensively and really pounded the boards (outrebounded OU 35-26, I believe). Also, TX shot 41% and OU shot 34% and that total still hit 126. I think the over is the way to play this game. The Kansas side looks tempting too, but the over looks better, IMO.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-26-07, 04:04 PM

I guess I meant average compared to KU's defense in my own opinion. The FG% defense is close to the same for UT and KU, but the Jayhawks hold opponents to about 11 pts per game less than Texas. So I think if OU can't score 60 on UT, they won't score much more than about 60 on KU. I also think OU's defense is their best attribute, hence the under prediction.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-27-07, 10:57 AM

Decent end to Big Monday at 2-1, getting the big bet with LB State and hitting the under in the Big East tilt. If not for that 3 by OU at the end, could have gotten a push in the Big 12 tilt. Next week, probably go with a 3 pick for whatever championship week BS is going on since "Big Monday" is in effect done for the season.

Big Monday Total: 8-7
Bank Total:

EaglesPhan36 · 03-05-07, 04:33 PM

Not exactly the "Big Monday" lineup, but it's the last Monday with a major slate of NCAA action. So, I'm making it the last Big Monday just for the hell of it!

Colonial Championship: George Mason (+4.5) vs. VCU

Are you kidding me? I'm gonna go against last year's Cinderella when they've knocked off Colonial powerhouses ODU and Hoftsra straight up in this tournament? No way Jose! Take the Patriots and the points. It should be tough for VCU to beat this team for the 3rd time this season and even if they do, Mason should cover.

West Coast Championship: Santa Clara vs. Gonzaga OVER 144.5

Despite last night's low scoring affair with SC and St.Mary's, the Broncos had gone over in 6 straight before that. Gonzaga has gone over in 5 of their last 6. The two teams went over tonight's posted total during both of their clashes during the season as well, making the over the best play here.

Metro Atlantic Championship: Siena (-1) vs. Niagara

Siena won both regular season meetings by double digits. Niagara is however on a 10 game winning streak. This is a coin flip to me and while as I stated in the Colonial pick that beating a team 3 times in a row is difficult, nothing jumps out on why you shouldn't take Siena. They shoot the ball better better (47% compared to 42%) and shot over 50% in both prior meetings.

AC1318 · 03-05-07, 04:46 PM

I like siena and over play in gonzaga
no opinion on GM VCU