The 345 teams that will not win the national championship

[Hman]

The 345 teams that will not win the national championship


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Welcome to the fourth annual bad-news icon known as "The 345 teams that will not win the national title." This venerable buzzkill is now 3-for-3, having correctly exempted Villanova from inclusion twice and North Carolina once since the list's beginnings in 2016.


The smart thing to do would of course be to quit now. All that this imposing edifice of oracular infallibility needs to come crashing down is one dark horse like Connecticut in 2014. In fact, that is absolutely going to happen if we keep doing this. It's only a matter of time.


But what the heck, this is just a game in which people put a ball through a hoop. The streak beckons to be extended.


Here are my selections for the 345 teams that will not win the 2019 national title, broken up into three sections:ineligible, near misses andno clear path.


Ineligible (three teams)

1. Alabama A&M Bulldogs
2. Cal Baptist Lancers
3. North Alabama Lions


Near misses (20 teams)

1. Auburn Tigers
That was one impressive stretch run, Tigers. You made my laptop look smart after it had been insisting pretty much all season long that there was more than met the eye with a team that, well, lost a ton of games against tough opponents. Then, finally, wins against Mississippi State and, especially, Tennessee ended our bickering and instead brought laptop and user together in a true evaluative kumbaya moment. So, thank you for that. Still, your opponents shoot exceptionally well inside the arc and rebounding continues to be an issue at both ends of the floor.
2. Buffalo Bulls
Let's not lose sight of the big picture. The very fact that a Mid-American Conference team is on a list of "near misses" for a national title is itself the paradigm-altering news here. Nate Oats, CJ Massinburg, Nick Perkins& Co., take a bow!

3. Cincinnati Bearcats
Leave your program stereotypes at the door. You think of the Bearcats as a bunch of blue-collar, tough-as-nails defenders -- and with good reason. That's the way Cincinnati has been, well, forever. This year, on the other hand, American Athletic Conference opponents hit 37 percent of their 3s and fared surprisingly well on their offensive glass. Jarron Cumberland is one of best (and most underrated) 3s-and-assists hybrids that Mick Cronin has had at Cincinnati, but magic-eight status is just out of reach this time.
4. Florida State Seminoles
Putting the Seminoles here is going to look like a mistake when and if Mfiondu Kabengele continues to increase his minutes off the bench. Against Virginia Tech, for example, the 6-foot-10 sophomore rendered this whole "off the bench" thing meaningless by logging 38 minutes against the Hokies in a 73-64 win that went to overtime. He is dominant in the paint, but, alas, his teammates are less hegemonic when it comes to hitting shots from the perimeter. Florida State hasn't shot better than 35 percent on its 3s in a game in nearly a month.
5. Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State is to 2019 roughly what Purdue was to 2018. If we were doing this exercise five weeks ago, the Cyclones might have been categorized differently. Steve Prohm is perfecting a self-sustaining high-efficiency machine on offense in Ames, but do not ask about defensive rebounding with Iowa State in 2019.
6. Kansas Jayhawks
Every year, Kansas shows up on this list, and every year, it feels incredibly reckless to have the Jayhawks here. In 2019, by stark contrast, everyone will see Bill Self's guys among the benighted 20 and think, "Well, duh." The only rational conclusion is that KU will indeed win the 2019 national title. Frankly, there could be no finer end to this ersatz "teams that won't win" mini-streak than to have it killed by the program that authored the capital-S Streak. Go to it, Jayhawks.
7. Kansas State Wildcats
Let's see, this is a 2018 Elite Eight team that, when healthy, returns the bulk of its rotation and that, oh by the way, co-ended possibly the most incredible streak in mass-audience team sports. That does not sound like "no clear path" material. So, right, famous last words, but here goes: K-State's bottom-line street cred on defense comes far more from forcing turnovers than from forcing misses. Historically, that hasn't gone well in late March and early April. (Save your Louisville whataboutism. The Cardinals were great at both in 2013.)
8. LSU Tigers
For the present, let's eschew all off-court drama and controversies and instead note merely that the Tigers outscored the SEC by about the same per-possession margin as did Auburn. That didn't prevent this team from winning the regular-season title outright (salute), but it does suggest close-game voodoo was aberrantly kind. LSU went to overtime six times in conference play and won five of those games. The Tigers' mileage might vary in future crunch times.
9. Louisville Cardinals
Chris Mack has done wonders to put a team on this list when the offense in conference play finished right at the ACC average in every major category from accuracy and turnovers to offensive boards. Doubtless he will have the Cardinals in the fabled octet sooner rather than later.


10. Marquette Golden Eagles
This is an odd thing to say about a team that has Markus Howard, but the Marquette defense was head-and-shoulders better than the offense in conference play. The Golden Eagles have a turnover rate that is worrisome but not terrible, and the same can be said of their number of second chances. When you put those two things together, however, you get an offense that posted the lowest shot volume of any team in Big East play not named Creighton.

Now, go out and make me look good. After recent events in Lawrence, Kansas, this right here has become the most impressive streak in all of college basketball. Take it from a completely unbiased source.
11. Maryland Terrapins
What if Mark Turgeon could keep this (effectively) no-seniors rotation together for 2019-20? By gar, then we'd see something. Then again, in the here and now, these precocious youngsters do play to at least one stereotype and cough up the ball with a fair degree of frequency. We all understand that "fair" is a decorous euphemism for "alarming," right?
12. Michigan Wolverines
Betting against John Beilein in the NCAA tournament is not, goodness knows, a particularly sagacious course of action. More specifically, the very-good-offense version of the Wolverines that surfaced in a losing cause at home against Michigan State and then stuck around for subsequent wins against Nebraska and at Maryland can absolutely make this the wrong place to have Michigan. This pick feels incredibly risky, but rules are rules and my editor said no to "344 teams that won't win."
13. Mississippi State Bulldogs
In Ben Howland's fourth season in Starkville, the Bulldogs have methodically worked way up to inclusion on this rather august list. When the next version of Mississippi State rolls around and displays a bit more aptitude on the defensive end, it's conceivable that the upward trajectory of the program could notch its next milestone within this oh so venerable feature.
14. Nevada Wolf Pack
Some of us charted every possession in Mountain West play in anticipation of this Nevada question arising in March. (At last, this is where tracking that Wyoming vs. San Jose State game pays dividends. Sweet!) Eric Musselman has built a defense that it not to be trifled with, but the common refrain in all three of the Wolfpack's conference losses was insufficient offense. If it happened against New Mexico, it could recur against a Sweet 16-caliber opponent.
15. Purdue Boilermakers
Right, as long as this list is foolishly excluding self-evidently great Big Ten teams, by all means let's not forget the co-champion of what was statistically the strongest conference in the nation. Smart move! No one who was alive in 2016 and 2018 and saw who won it all in those years should be in any great hurry to tut-tut about Purdue's extreme perimeter orientation, but the Boilermakers' Big Ten opponents also shot a high number of 3s. When Matt Painter's guys run across a team that doesn't give the ball away (and you always will, eventually, in the NCAA tournament), this could be an issue.
16. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Now we're living dangerously. Any laptop worth its salt thinks this pick is strange, and, well, it is. In fact, this is clearly a dumb move if the Red Raiders continue scoring points the way they've been doing now for [checks notes] the past month? Whose idea was this 345-teams thing again? This is the part where skeptics say 43 percent 3-point shooting and a Bo Ryan-level microscopic turnover rate can't "possibly" continue for another three weeks the way both of those things have persisted for the past 30 days. Maybe so, but if the skeptics are incorrect on just these two points, Texas Tech can and will prove this "near miss" business flat wrong.
17. Villanova Wildcats
Jay Wright only wins national titles in even-numbered years, so this one was easy. No, really, this version of the Wildcats doesn't have the "insane accuracy from the field" square covered on the bingo card the way past Villanova teams did.



18. Virginia Tech Hokies
The Hokies were the second-slowest-paced team in ACC play this season (you'll never guess who was first), so apply that mental correction to the following figure: Virginia Tech's conference opponents drained 168 shots from beyond the arc. That number reflects the fact that 46 percent of opponents' shot attempts were 3-pointers. Feels like a risky way to proceed.




19. Wisconsin Badgers
In the new supersized, 20-game Big Ten schedule, the Badgers played 1,303 possessions of basketball and scored 1,305 points. For better or worse, we haven't seen the point-per-possession approach work for six straight NCAA tournament games for a while.

20. Wofford Terriers
Let's not lose sight of the big picture. The very fact that a Southern Conference team is on a list of "near misses" for a national title is itself the paradigm-altering news here. Mike Young, Cameron Jackson, Fletcher Magee & Co., take a bow!
No clear path (322 teams)

1. Abilene Christian Wildcats
2. Air Force Falcons
3. Akron Zips
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
5. Alabama State Hornets
6. Albany Great Danes
7. Alcorn State Braves
8. American Eagles
9. Appalachian State Mountaineers
10. Arizona Wildcats
11. Arizona State Sun Devils
12. Arkansas Razorbacks
13. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
14. Arkansas State Red Wolves
15. Army Black Knights
16. Austin Peay Governors
17. Ball State Cardinals
18. Baylor Bears
19. Belmont Bruins
20. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
21. Binghamton Bearcats
22. Boise State Broncos
23. Boston College Eagles
24. Boston University Terriers
25. Bowling Green Falcons
26. Bradley Braves
27. BYU Cougars
28. Brown Bears
29. Bryant Bulldogs
30. Bucknell Bison
31. Butler Bulldogs
32. California Golden Bears
33. Cal Poly Mustangs
34. CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners
35. CSU Fullerton Titans
36. CSU Northridge Matadors
37. Campbell Fighting Camels
38. Canisius Golden Griffins
39. Central Arkansas Bears
40. Central Connecticut Blue Devils
41. Central Michigan Chippewas
42. Charleston Cougars
43. Charleston Southern Buccaneers
44. Charlotte 49ers
45. Chattanooga Mocs
46. Chicago State Cougars
47. The Citadel Bulldogs
48. Clemson Tigers
49. Cleveland State Vikings
50. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
51. Colgate Raiders
52. Colorado Buffaloes
53. Colorado State Rams
54. Columbia Lions
55. UConn Huskies
56. Coppin State Eagles
57. Cornell Big Red
58. Creighton Bluejays
59. Dartmouth Big Green
60. Davidson Wildcats
61. Dayton Flyers
62. Delaware Blue Hens
63. Delaware State Hornets
64. Denver Pioneers
65. DePaul Blue Demons
66. Detroit Mercy Titans
67. Drake Bulldogs
68. Drexel Dragons
69. Duquesne Dukes
70. East Carolina Pirates
71. East Tennessee State Buccaneers
72. Eastern Illinois Panthers
73. Eastern Kentucky Colonels
74. Eastern Michigan Eagles
75. Eastern Washington Eagles
76. Elon Phoenix
77. Evansville Purple Aces
78. Fairfield Stags
79. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
80. Florida Gators
81. Florida A&M Rattlers
82. Florida Atlantic Owls
83. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
84. Florida International Golden Panthers
85. Fordham Rams
86. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
87. Fresno State Bulldogs
88. Furman Paladins
89. Gardner-Webb Bulldogs
90. George Mason Patriots
91. George Washington Colonials
92. Georgetown Hoyas
93. Georgia Bulldogs
94. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
95. Georgia Southern Eagles
96. Georgia State Panthers
97. Grambling Tigers
98. Grand Canyon Antelopes
99. Green Bay Phoenix
100. Hampton Pirates
101. Hartford Hawks
102. Harvard Crimson
103. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
104. High Point Panthers
105. Hofstra Pride
106. Holy Cross Crusaders
107. Houston Baptist Huskies
108. Howard Bison
109. Idaho Vandals
110. Idaho State Bengals
111. Illinois Fighting Illini
112. Illinois-Chicago Flames
113. Illinois State Redbirds
114. Incarnate Word Cardinals
115. Indiana Hoosiers
116. Indiana State Sycamores
117. IUPUI Jaguars
118. Iona Gaels
119. Iowa Hawkeyes
120. Jackson State Tigers
121. Jacksonville Dolphins
122. Jacksonville State Gamecocks
123. James Madison Dukes
124. Kennesaw State Owls
125. Kent State Golden Flashes
126. La Salle Explorers
127. Lafayette Leopards
128. Lamar Cardinals
129. Lehigh Mountain Hawks
130. Liberty Flames
131. Lipscomb Bisons
132. Little Rock Trojans
133. Long Beach State 49ers
134. LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds
135. Longwood Lancers
136. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
137. UL Monroe Warhawks
138. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
139. Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
140. Loyola (MD) Greyhounds
141. Loyola Marymount Lions
142. Maine Black Bears
143. Manhattan Jaspers
144. Marist Red Foxes
145. Marshall Thundering Herd
146. Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks
147. UMass Minutemen
148. UMass Lowell River Hawks
149. McNeese Cowboys
150. Memphis Tigers
151. Mercer Bears
152. Miami Hurricanes
153. Miami (OH) RedHawks
154. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
155. Milwaukee Panthers
156. Minnesota Golden Gophers
157. Ole Miss Rebels
158. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
159. Missouri Tigers
160. Missouri State Bears
161. Monmouth Hawks
162. Montana Grizzlies
163. Montana State Bobcats
164. Morehead State Eagles
165. Morgan State Bears
166. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
167. Murray State Racers
168. Navy Midshipmen
169. Nebraska Cornhuskers
170. New Hampshire Wildcats
171. NJIT Highlanders
172. New Mexico Lobos
173. New Mexico State Aggies
174. New Orleans Privateers
175. Niagara Purple Eagles
176. Nicholls Colonels
177. Norfolk State Spartans
178. North Carolina A&T Aggies
179. North Carolina Central Eagles
180. NC State Wolfpack
181. North Dakota Fighting Hawks
182. North Dakota State Bison
183. North Florida Ospreys
184. North Texas Mean Green
185. Northeastern Huskies
186. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
187. Northern Colorado Bears
188. Northern Illinois Huskies
189. Northern Iowa Panthers
190. Northern Kentucky Norse
191. Northwestern Wildcats
192. Northwestern State Demons
193. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
194. Oakland Golden Grizzlies
195. Ohio Bobcats
196. Ohio State Buckeyes
197. Oklahoma Sooners
198. Oklahoma State Cowboys
199. Old Dominion Monarchs
200. Omaha Mavericks
201. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
202. Oregon Ducks
203. Oregon State Beavers
204. Pacific Tigers
205. Penn Quakers
206. Penn State Nittany Lions
207. Pepperdine Waves
208. Pittsburgh Panthers
209. Portland Pilots
210. Portland State Vikings
211. Prairie View A&M Panthers
212. Presbyterian Blue Hose
213. Princeton Tigers
214. Providence Friars
215. Quinnipiac Bobcats
216. Radford Highlanders
217. Rhode Island Rams
218. Rice Owls
219. Richmond Spiders
220. Rider Broncs
221. Robert Morris Colonials
222. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
223. Sacramento State Hornets
224. Sacred Heart Pioneers
225. Saint Joseph's Hawks
226. St. Bonaventure Bonnies
227. St. Francis NY Terriers
228. St. Francis PA Red Flash
229. St. John's Red Storm
230. Saint Louis Billikens
231. Saint Mary's Gaels
232. Saint Peter's Peacocks
233. Sam Houston State Bearkats
234. Samford Bulldogs
235. San Diego Toreros
236. San Diego State Aztecs
237. San Francisco Dons
238. San Jose State Spartans
239. Santa Clara Broncos
240. Savannah State Tigers
241. Seattle Redhawks
242. Seton Hall Pirates
243. Siena Saints
244. South Alabama Jaguars
245. South Carolina Gamecocks
246. South Carolina State Bulldogs
247. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
248. South Carolina Upstate Spartans
249. South Dakota Coyotes
250. South Dakota State Jackrabbits
251. South Florida Bulls
252. SE Louisiana Lions
253. Southern Jaguars
254. Southern Illinois Salukis
255. SIU Edwardsville Cougars
256. SMU Mustangs
257. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
258. Southern Utah Thunderbirds
259. Stanford Cardinal
260. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
261. Stetson Hatters
262. Stony Brook Seawolves
263. Syracuse Orange
264. TCU Horned Frogs
265. Temple Owls
266. Tennessee Martin Skyhawks
267. Tennessee State Tigers
268. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
269. Texas Longhorns
270. Texas A&M Aggies
271. Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders
272. Texas Southern Tigers
273. Texas State Bobcats
274. Toledo Rockets
275. Towson Tigers
276. Troy Trojans
277. Tulane Green Wave
278. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
279. UAB Blazers
280. UC Davis Aggies
281. UC Irvine Anteaters
282. UC Riverside Highlanders
283. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
284. UCF Knights
285. UCLA Bruins
286. UMBC Retrievers
287. UMKC Kangaroos
288. UNC Asheville Bulldogs
289. UNC Greensboro Spartans
290. UNC Wilmington Seahawks
291. UNLV Rebels
292. USC Trojans
293. UT Arlington Mavericks
294. UTEP Miners
295. UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
[COLOR=#48494A][FONT=Georgia]296. [URL="http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas

[DOM_Toretto]

Thanks for posting! Interesting read. I agree with his 8 and would even go further to say you can remove Houston, and I’m skeptical that UVA, Duke or UK win it all with so few seniors. Nobody wants to back this UVA team after last year’s fiasco, but damn they really are so much better offensively this year so idk...