Best bets for Virginia-Syracuse and Big Monday games
Best bets for Virginia-Syracuse and Big Monday games
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
During the NFL season, Monday Night Football is the last chance to make up for a weekend of errant picks and bad bets. The same can be said about Big Monday in college basketball, only now we have an assortment of games from which to choose.
With another good slate of matchups, including Virginia-Syracuse and Texas-Texas Tech, here are our three best bets for tonight.
Virginia Cavaliers (-6) at Syracuse Orange
Tony Bennett's team is a monster. Aside from its two losses to Duke, Virginia has run the table, thanks in large part to its top-five ranking in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. More than great shooting or sparkling half-court offense, defense -- especially great defense -- travels. Despite a dose of recent success, the Orange remain an offensively challenged roster, particularly from the perimeter, where Cuse ranks a putrid 289th nationally in 3-point percentage. (Only forward Marek Dolezaj -- 43.5 percent -- shoots over 36 percent from 3.) With highly versatile first-round draft prospect De'Andre Hunter patrolling the floor for the Hoos, things won't get any easier for the Orange. UVA rolls in the dome.
Pick: Virginia -6
Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-8.5)
This is a tough spot for the young Longhorns. Fresh off one of their best wins of the season -- a 86-69 beatdown of Iowa State just two days ago -- they now head to Lubbock to face the No. 1-ranked defense in America, per KenPom. Better yet, the 11th-ranked Red Raiders are not only playing for a Big 12 title, but perhaps a 2-seed in the NCAA tournament. Behind a balanced offense with lottery-bound Jarrett Culver (who leads Tech with his 17.9 PPG, 6.2 RBP and 26 percent assist rate) at the helm, the Red Raiders notched a season-best 22 assists in their 15-point win over TCU on Saturday. Chris Beard's club has rattled off a program-record seven straight conference wins, including a 29-point thrashing of Kansas. Texas might keep this close for a half, but the absence of suspended senior guard Kerwin Roach II -- whose 15 PPG lead the team -- will prevent the Horns from having any chance of covering.
Pick: Texas Tech -8.5
Kansas State Wildcats (-1.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
You don't need the points in this one. TCU is on NCAA tournament life support, in desperate need of a crucial home win over streaking K-State. While the Wildcats remain in contention for at least a share of the Big 12 title, my reasoning for grabbing the Horned Frogs is simple, if not perfect. Not only are they significantly better at home (12-4 versus 2-7), but their balanced offense -- four starters in double figures -- is much more efficient as well. And it's that offense which will prove to be the difference against Kansas State, which barely survived an emotionally and physically draining 66-60 home game over Baylor Saturday night in Manhattan.
One more bonus: Monday is senior night in Dallas, which in my mind counts for 2-3 points, especially when you're on the edge of a March Madness berth. Expect big things from senior JD Miller as well. The 6-foot-8, 235-pound Dallas native is averaging nearly 17 PPG on 56.4 percent shooting over his last four outings.
Pick: TCU ML
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
During the NFL season, Monday Night Football is the last chance to make up for a weekend of errant picks and bad bets. The same can be said about Big Monday in college basketball, only now we have an assortment of games from which to choose.
With another good slate of matchups, including Virginia-Syracuse and Texas-Texas Tech, here are our three best bets for tonight.
Virginia Cavaliers (-6) at Syracuse Orange
Tony Bennett's team is a monster. Aside from its two losses to Duke, Virginia has run the table, thanks in large part to its top-five ranking in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. More than great shooting or sparkling half-court offense, defense -- especially great defense -- travels. Despite a dose of recent success, the Orange remain an offensively challenged roster, particularly from the perimeter, where Cuse ranks a putrid 289th nationally in 3-point percentage. (Only forward Marek Dolezaj -- 43.5 percent -- shoots over 36 percent from 3.) With highly versatile first-round draft prospect De'Andre Hunter patrolling the floor for the Hoos, things won't get any easier for the Orange. UVA rolls in the dome.
Pick: Virginia -6
Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-8.5)
This is a tough spot for the young Longhorns. Fresh off one of their best wins of the season -- a 86-69 beatdown of Iowa State just two days ago -- they now head to Lubbock to face the No. 1-ranked defense in America, per KenPom. Better yet, the 11th-ranked Red Raiders are not only playing for a Big 12 title, but perhaps a 2-seed in the NCAA tournament. Behind a balanced offense with lottery-bound Jarrett Culver (who leads Tech with his 17.9 PPG, 6.2 RBP and 26 percent assist rate) at the helm, the Red Raiders notched a season-best 22 assists in their 15-point win over TCU on Saturday. Chris Beard's club has rattled off a program-record seven straight conference wins, including a 29-point thrashing of Kansas. Texas might keep this close for a half, but the absence of suspended senior guard Kerwin Roach II -- whose 15 PPG lead the team -- will prevent the Horns from having any chance of covering.
Pick: Texas Tech -8.5
Kansas State Wildcats (-1.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
You don't need the points in this one. TCU is on NCAA tournament life support, in desperate need of a crucial home win over streaking K-State. While the Wildcats remain in contention for at least a share of the Big 12 title, my reasoning for grabbing the Horned Frogs is simple, if not perfect. Not only are they significantly better at home (12-4 versus 2-7), but their balanced offense -- four starters in double figures -- is much more efficient as well. And it's that offense which will prove to be the difference against Kansas State, which barely survived an emotionally and physically draining 66-60 home game over Baylor Saturday night in Manhattan.
One more bonus: Monday is senior night in Dallas, which in my mind counts for 2-3 points, especially when you're on the edge of a March Madness berth. Expect big things from senior JD Miller as well. The 6-foot-8, 235-pound Dallas native is averaging nearly 17 PPG on 56.4 percent shooting over his last four outings.
Pick: TCU ML