NC St 134 (32?)
UConn 160
S Carolina 100
Indiana 140 (low confidence)
Dayton 114 (12?)
W Virginia 128 (somewhat broad range of likely scores, a plateau from mid 20's to mid 30's)
Elon (no number)
Villanova 154 (somewhat low confidence)
Georgetown 130 (32?)
VCU 120 (low confidence, very careful)
A Peay 132 (34?)
S Illinois 116 (broad range of likely scores, a plateau from mid 00's to mid 20's)
Iowa 134
Tenn Martin 128 (mostly normal confidence, except for the factor of the last game btw these 2 going to 173)
Arizona 154 (low confidence)
DePaul 136
E Illinois 118 (somewhat low confidence)
Texas 142 (44?)
note: there is a distinction between a game having "low confidence" and a "plateau" (or a broader than normal range of likely scores). imagine the range of likely scores as a graphed line, with a peak around the most likely outcome, and sloping down as the outcomes on the graph move farther away from the peak, or most likely outcome. a game with lower confidence is one that has less of a clear peak, or it may have one or more peaks, an irregular graph. a game with a plateau has the normal shape, but it is flatter, with the peak having a wider range. examples: a game with low confidence might have 132-136 as an equally likely outcome as 150-154. a game with a plateau might have the range of 124-140 as a peak, while a normal peak would only have a range of 4 or 6 points or so.
UConn 160
S Carolina 100
Indiana 140 (low confidence)
Dayton 114 (12?)
W Virginia 128 (somewhat broad range of likely scores, a plateau from mid 20's to mid 30's)
Elon (no number)
Villanova 154 (somewhat low confidence)
Georgetown 130 (32?)
VCU 120 (low confidence, very careful)
A Peay 132 (34?)
S Illinois 116 (broad range of likely scores, a plateau from mid 00's to mid 20's)
Iowa 134
Tenn Martin 128 (mostly normal confidence, except for the factor of the last game btw these 2 going to 173)
Arizona 154 (low confidence)
DePaul 136
E Illinois 118 (somewhat low confidence)
Texas 142 (44?)
note: there is a distinction between a game having "low confidence" and a "plateau" (or a broader than normal range of likely scores). imagine the range of likely scores as a graphed line, with a peak around the most likely outcome, and sloping down as the outcomes on the graph move farther away from the peak, or most likely outcome. a game with lower confidence is one that has less of a clear peak, or it may have one or more peaks, an irregular graph. a game with a plateau has the normal shape, but it is flatter, with the peak having a wider range. examples: a game with low confidence might have 132-136 as an equally likely outcome as 150-154. a game with a plateau might have the range of 124-140 as a peak, while a normal peak would only have a range of 4 or 6 points or so.