Math Man - NCAA March Madness

**aljack** · 03-19-18, 12:06 PM

NET PPG = RATING – ALL
56.10%, 23-18, +2.86u (March 2018)

NET PPG = RATING – ATS
53.85%, 14-12 +0.74u (March 2018)

NET EFF = POWER RATING – ATS
53.49%, 46-40, +1.86u (March 2018)

PPG = SCORE – ML
37.93%, 22-36, +0.96u (March 2018)

MOE RATING – ATS
53.13%, 17-15, +0.47u (March 2018)

St Mary’s -10
St Mary’s o142.5

**Bsims** · 03-21-18, 06:33 AM

What is the definition of offensive and defensive efficiency?

**aljack** · 03-21-18, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by Bsims

What is the definition of offensive and defensive efficiency?

DEF EFF: avg pts allowed per opp 100 possessions.
OFF EFF: avg offensive pts per 100 possessions

**DISTROYA** · 03-21-18, 02:44 PM

sorry, isnt st marys at -7? was it -10 at one point?

**sevenbar10** · 03-21-18, 03:03 PM

That was against Washington on the 19th

**DISTROYA** · 03-21-18, 03:04 PM

thx shit sorry

**aljack** · 03-21-18, 03:04 PM

Math Man’s MOE Rating – NIT, CBI, CIT Tournaments – 3/21

Margin Of Expectation Rating – March 2018

57.14%

20

15

3.20u

Math Man’s Best Bet
UNT +1 (-110)

Stay Tuned – Sweet Sixteen Breakdown Coming Later Today!

**aljack** · 03-22-18, 07:30 PM

MOE Rating

PPG Rating

NET PPG

Net Eff Rating

South Region - (11) Loyola-Chicago vs (7) Nevada

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Loyola-Chicago

LoyChi has been more successful against the number this season than Nevada, and at +1 it seems like Vegas is giving Loyola more of a fair shake than most people consider. Nevada scores 12+ more points per game than Loyola, however Loyola allows about 11 less points per game than Nevada - defense will be a huge factor in this game. Loyola's defense is far superior than Nevada's and Nevada's offense is only a tad bit better than Loyola's - defense wins championships - Loyola Chicago to the Elite 8.

West Region - (7) Texas A&M vs (3) Michigan

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Michigan

Have to go against the smart money on this one - I just don't see what everyone else is seeing - Michigan has been far more successful against the number this season - up on A&M 3 whole points in measure of expectation - that is very telling to me. A&M scores 2 points more than Michigan per game - however Michigan allows 6 points less per game. Michigan allows 3 points less than A&M per 100 possessions on defense and scores 8 more points per 100 possessions on offense. Michigan is 8-2 ATS in their last 10. The hot streak continues tonight. Take Michigan.

South Region - (9) Kansas State vs (5) Kentucky

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Kentucky

Kentucky wins here - but don't a slight lean on KSST ATS. Although Kansas St has a minus number in success rate against the number - they still shine a bit of value on their side in this match up. Kentucky only scores 5.7 more points than KSST per game, and seeing as the spread is only -5, that shows me there is value on the Kansas St side. On top of that Kansas St allows 3.6 fewer points per game than Kentucky - so net/net this match up is shaping up to be more than just a set up spot for Kentucky. KSST & UK share almost the same defensive efficiency rating - however UK is about 2pts better /100 possessions on offense. I think this one is closer than most people imagine. Kentucky wins - Kansas St covers.

West Region - (9) Florida State vs (4) Gonzaga

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Gonzaga

Alot of people are suspecting an upset here - I am not. Gonzaga and FSU have had almost the same amount of success against the number this season - However Gonzaga is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 and FSU is 3-7 ATS. Gonzaga scores just over 3 pts per game more than FSU - which favors FSU's side at +6. Although Gonzaga's defense is just over 6pts better than FSU net/net. Gonzaga scores about 8 points more per 100 possessions than FSU and allows 5 fewer points per 100 possessions on defense. All in all - this match up seems like a wash. The line may be too low - Gonzaga wins impressively.

MidWest Region - (5) Clemson vs (1) Kansas

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Kansas
This one is a doozey. Clemson has beaten expectation all throughout this season. Kansas on the other hand has been even keel throughout the entire campaign. On paper this games looks like a total blow out - but again, don't count out the value on the side of the dog in this one. Kansas scores on average 7.6 more points per game than Clemson - making it look like the spread at -5 has immense value - the only issue is that Clemson has allowed 5 pts fewer per game on average this season than Kansas. Clemson only trails Kansas in average point differential by only 2.2 points - even though Kansas scores 7.6 more points than them per game. This leads me to believe that Clemson may in fact be a more discipline team than Kansas. Clemson allows 4 fewer points per 100 opponent possessions than Kansas - Kansas scores 7 more points per 100 offensive possessions than Clemson. I think this one goes down to the wire similarly to the Kansas/Houston game from the other night - Kansas moves on, Clemson covers.

East Region - (5) West Virginia vs (1) Villanova

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Villanova
WVU has a quirky defense that some teams can handle better than others - Villanova is the highest scoring team in the country. Villanova should be able to handle Press Virginia's D. Villanova is number 3 in the country in assist to turn over ratio. They do not turn the ball over. One over looked factor in this line is the fact that WVU commits a ton of fouls because of their press defense - Villanova shoots free throws very well. Take Villanova to win and cover and move on to the Elite 8.
Villanova 2H
WVU is the #6 team in the country in NET PPG in the 1H - in the 2H they are much worse, teams adjust to their system and find out how to play against the press. WVU is #58 in the country in the 2H. Top 10 team in the 1H - not even a top 50 team in the 2H. This makes me inclined to take Villanova 2H. Use the closing number as a guide and a measure against the spread for what line you should get, and take Villanova at half time.

MidWest Region - (11) Syracuse vs (2) Duke

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Duke
This one is simple. Duke has a better number against the spread on average this season. Duke scores more than Syracuse. The Orange allow 6 pts less than Duke per game, however Duke has a +15.6 point differential on average - Syracuse has only a +3.1 point differential on average. Duke scores 16 more points than Syracuse per 100 offensive possessions. There is no edge here in anyway for Syracuse - they have no business being in this match up. Duke wins and covers the double digit.

East Region - (3) Texas Tech vs (2) Purdue

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Purdue

Line is too low - Purdue rolls here. Haase or no Haase.

Math Man's Bracket

**aljack** · 03-24-18, 04:29 PM

MOE Rating
March 2018: ATS - (60.87%: 28-18, +7.48u)

NET EFF RATING
March 2018: ATS - (53.06%: 52-46, +1.32u)

* Kansas has a slight HCA advantage because of the site location

NET PPG Rating
March 2018: ATS - (51.85%: 28-26, +0.82u)

* Kansas has a slight HCA advantage because of the site location

PPG Rating
March 2018: Totals - (52.29%: 114-104, -0.72u)

* Kansas has a slight HCA advantage because of the site location

South Region - (11) Loyola-Chicago vs (9) Kansas State

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Loyola Chicago

West Region - (9) Florida State vs (3) Michigan

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Michigan

East Region - (3) Texas Tech vs (1) Villanova

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Villanova

MidWest Region - (2) Duke vs (1) Kansas

Math Man's Bracket Pick: Duke

**aljack** · 03-26-18, 05:03 PM

MOE RATING - MARCH 2018:

60.00%

30

20

7.30u

3.26.18

**Grivas_Digeni** · 03-27-18, 12:08 PM

Looking good. Does Loyola get any bonus points for being HIS favorite team?

**aljack** · 03-27-18, 04:53 PM

3.27.18

NIT

**aljack** · 03-28-18, 04:57 PM

NCAA - MOE RATING (March 2018)

31

22

6.21u

3.28

**aljack** · 03-29-18, 05:39 PM

3.29.18

**flabrah5** · 03-29-18, 05:47 PM

PSU wins it - defense is on point and cant miss. Ready to hoist another NIT trophy since 2009.

GL to you and thanks for all the data and input!

**aljack** · 03-30-18, 05:21 PM

**aljack** · 03-30-18, 06:27 PM

edit.

**aljack** · 03-31-18, 07:10 AM

“Have no fear the Math Man is here!”

We have come so far from just a budding analytical sprout to a blossoming mathematical flower of handicapping edge. Not only have we advanced our models into derivatives, we have also added blended stats based on last 3 games played.
So get ready! It’s Math Time!

Our most successful stat this March has been the “Measure Of Expectation” aka ‘The Moe Rating’
The Moe Rating – ATS: March 2018

58.62%

34

24

+6.94u

We have also had success with a few other models during the tournament.
NET PPG Rating – All: March 2018

55.93%

33

26

3.46u

Net Efficiency Rating – ATS: March 2018:

53.47%

54

47

2.14

So without further delay – let’s get cappin!

(11) Loyola-Chicago vs (3) Michigan

MOE Rating

Net PPG Rating

Net EFF Rating

Net Assists/TurnOver Rating

Net Rebound Rating

Rebound + Free Throw Rating

Average Winning Margin Rating

Math Man’s Bracket Pick:

(1) Villanova vs (1) Kansas

MOE Rating

Net PPG Rating

Net EFF Rating

Net Asst/TurnOver Rating

Net Rebound Rating

Rebound + Free Throw Rating

Average Winning Margin Rating

Math Man’s Bracket Pick:

Michigan/Loyola
PPG = Totals (52.25%: 116-106, -0.9)

Rebound + Free Throw Rating

Over/Under Trend Model:

Villanova/Kansas
PPG = Totals (52.25%: 116-106, -0.9)

Rebound + Free Throw Rating

Over/Under Trend Model:

Michigan/Loyola
1H Avg Winning Margin

2H Avg Winning Margin

1H Net PPG

2H Net PPG

Villanova/Kansas
1H Avg Winning Margin

2H Avg Winning Margin

1H Net PPG

2H Net PPG

$125: Villanova -1, Loyola +9.5 – Teaser @ 1.91
$50: Loyola/Michigan u130 (-105),
$50: Kansas/Villanova o155 (-110),
$50: Loyola/Michigan 1H o59,
$50: Kansas/Villanova 1H u72.5 (-110)