Can I present a dumb / ignorant question please to you trend guys It

Louisvillekid1 · 12-02-17, 04:22 PM

The answering im hoping to receive is if you bet the game under

you should also be on the 1h under in most cases

bjb7223 · 12-02-17, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

I’ve been in this game quite a while as you know

and it sure seems like if the game under hits the 1h under has hit as well, more

often than not

vice versa

game overs hit seem to hit all the time

w/o 1h Overs cashing

i know a lil math and use numbers no doubt

but is this something that you agree with

are there numbers to back it up?

ive posed this question in the past with no luck

love ya all

ty in advance

yes I agree with this, but you need to put constraints on some data to bet the under or over.

Louisvillekid1 · 12-02-17, 04:26 PM

I obv use numbers to cap

but I cap knowing teams/coaches/ and my gut

its no model or anything

I always have an angle as why I’m playing 1h or game

but just seems mathematically you guys should be using this in most cases

just one kids thought

HeeluvaGuy · 12-02-17, 04:29 PM

The only thing I know for sure is that if I'm on a game under that goes under in the first half, the second half will fly over.

Louisvillekid1 · 12-02-17, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

The only thing I know for sure is that if I'm on a game under that goes under in the first half, the second half will fly over.

Lol see that happens way more often then the opposite

survive · 12-02-17, 04:40 PM

If I like a college hoops under, I only play the first half under. Don’t have any statistics but just works best for me

2daBank · 12-02-17, 06:00 PM

I get burnt on full game unders at times cause ot or prolonged foul game. My reason for mostly playing full game opposed to 1st half is prob more true when we get into conf play and books numbers a little better but those 1st halves are shaded what like 10 points lower than half the total usually? And I swear last year it seemed every other one I played 1st half came down to last possession whether kid made a shot or not! I don't have kids so assuming the gray starting to pop up somewhat attributed to those! Lol

Quite often when I like a under I expect a large margin of victory so very often while it super close at end of 1st half often times I get a last 4 minutes of the game where one team is milking every last drop out of the shot clock and on the other side the team trailing is often times not running their normal offense leading to less efficiency.

I honestly have no clue how often the 1st half went over by a basket or 2 but game still stayed under mostly cause I rarely remember what the 1st half total was if I only played full game, lol.. I really think it prob about as often as 1st half went under and I got burnt for game. It would be cool to see a huge sample of numbers on the subject, I'd be incredibly interested and willing to pony up points if anyone was capable and willing to invest the time to give us a idea!!

CappinTerp · 12-02-17, 08:16 PM

Good question kid and no question is dumb or stupid,if you want to know. I bet a ton of totals in all sports and about 80% of the time,it's the under.( a story for another day) In college hoops,what I do,is to figure out where the 1st half should be priced and go from there. Get the game total, subtract by 8 and divide by two This is important: - 8 then divide by 2 ! For example a game with a total of 148...will have a 1st half total of 70.About 90% of the time,it will be 69,69.5 or 70! When the 1st half total deviates from there,then there may be an oppty. Also,no matter how many points are scored in the 1st half....the 2nd half will be priced at +10 points of were the 1st was priced. I think this was what banker was talking about. Now this 2nd half @ +10 , will happen about 90% of the time, and where that deviates: + / - points,there may be an oppty. So for myself ,if a game has a total of 128 and a 1st half total of 57.5..(not 60) I will consider to go under! But everything is relative...if a game is priced at 168 and a 1st half price of 77.5..I will not
consider it...............Hey guys this is a long explanation,too long for one post...Got a idea,whoever is interested on this topic. Tomorrow,go over the college hoops totals and we can shoot idea's around! ?

HeeluvaGuy · 12-03-17, 12:07 AM

Funny. I prefer sticking with full game totals (unless I'm trying to middle in the 2h). I just think that there is more, and better, data for full games. For example, I have never seen possessions or efficiency broken down by halves. Since that's what I primarily rely on, I would just be chucking darts at a 1h total (or side for that matter). Yes, sometimes I lose an under because of OT or late game fouling, but I play as many overs as I do unders, so I don't let that kind of variance bother me too much.

FWIW, I firmly believe pace of play is the most predictable variable in college basketball. If I could bet on total possessions in a game, I would be very happy.

CappinTerp · 12-03-17, 04:53 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Funny. I prefer sticking with full game totals (unless I'm trying to middle in the 2h). I just think that there is more, and better, data for full games. For example, I have never seen possessions or efficiency broken down by halves. Since that's what I primarily rely on, I would just be chucking darts at a 1h total (or side for that matter). Yes, sometimes I lose an under because of OT or late game fouling, but I play as many overs as I do unders, so I don't let that kind of variance bother me too much.

FWIW, I firmly believe pace of play is the most predictable variable in college basketball. If I could bet on total possessions in a game, I would be very happy.

That many be true,but with game totals,it's still more of a dart throw,one never knows,who willbe in foul trouble ,how many times,teams will go to line,fouls in last 2 min,ect. One has a much higher probability, of winning ....when one bets on games,the "market/price action",tells them to bet and power weight it....for ex. the SMU game last night.....of course theses don't always come in.................but I think it's better in long run....................................B OL

2daBank · 12-03-17, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by CappinTerp

That many be true,but with game totals,it's still more of a dart throw,one never knows,who willbe in foul trouble ,how many times,teams will go to line,fouls in last 2 min,ect. One has a much higher probability, of winning ....when one bets on games,the "market/price action",tells them to bet and power weight it....for ex. the SMU game last night.....of course theses don't always come in.................but I think it's better in long run....................................B OL

Bro, you my guy but that couldn't be further from the truth. Obviously there some uncertain variables but as HG says nailing down amount of possessions/pace of play is very doable, then you simply counting on offensive/defensive matchups and trusting your method to determine amount of fts, how well a team shoots etc, sure there times those turn out wrong but over course of 100s of plays you can get very close to those numbers more often than not, no different than predicting a side based off same things.,

You ever notice how hesitant books are to post NCAA hoops totals? How low the limits are at open where they do? And how much they move? Their nothing dart throw about them buddy.,

CappinTerp · 12-03-17, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Bro, you my guy but that couldn't be further from the truth. Obviously there some uncertain variables but as HG says nailing down amount of possessions/pace of play is very doable, then you simply counting on offensive/defensive matchups and trusting your method to determine amount of fts, how well a team shoots etc, sure there times those turn out wrong but over course of 100s of plays you can get very close to those numbers more often than not, no different than predicting a side based off same things.,

You ever notice how hesitant books are to post NCAA hoops totals? How low the limits are at open where they do? And how much they move? Their nothing dart throw about them buddy.,

Point well taken banker and that was a poor way I explained it..."throwing darts"....the main point I was trying to make was: IMO,one has a better chance of making money,when the "market" ,tells them to make a play. But then again I a bettor that looks more at the technical side of it ,than the fundamentals......there is no wright or wrong to this,it's just how one prefers to look at it, best of luck bud !

Reno_Thor · 12-03-17, 09:28 PM

This just might be the most thoughtful and at the same time informative thread in SBR history. The responses are what this board SHOULD be like. The total void of the words “brokdik”, “penetrate”, and accusations of air betting has restored my faith in sbr humanity.

BoL all.

cheers

CappinTerp · 12-06-17, 06:10 PM

Two more things to bring up (many more to present,when I remember).....When betting a 1st half total..Always go back and make sure that the game total did not change There have been so many times,when I did not do this and added to my bet,giving me a false take on it. #2) For a whole game total,when it's high,let's say it's 171,and the line moves up,3+ points.....FADE the steam!!.....................BOL