2H Middle Effecitveness

[djmaz]

What does everyone think about going for a 2H middle? Here is the typical scenario: Full game bet on a rather large dog, typically double digits, lets say +12. That dog keeps it close or is maybe winning at half time, lets say they are up 1. 2H line comes out and the fav is a moderate favorite, lets say -4. That makes a 9 point middle window. Is this a good bet? Assuming same units are used for both wagers.

Thanks!

[cooperman]

It is a risk reward proposition are you ok turning a mostly sure winner into a possible juice loss? As long as you do it in moderation it can be effective tool

[djmaz]

I feel like I need a 7+ point window to warrant it. I was curious as to the percentage of effectiveness it would need to have to make up for the possible juice loss. Thanks for the comment though!

It is a risk reward proposition are you ok turning a mostly sure winner into a possible juice loss? As long as you do it in moderation it can be effective tool

[HeeluvaGuy]

I feel like I need a 7+ point window to warrant it. I was curious as to the percentage of effectiveness it would need to have to make up for the possible juice loss. Thanks for the comment though!

The math is simple. You need to hit better than 1 in 20 to come out ahead. Example:

Risk 110 on Team A to win 100 for the full game
Risk 110 on Team B to win 100 for the second half

If the middle hits, you win 200. If it doesn't hit, you're out 10. You're risking 10 to win 200.

Now WHEN to middle is an entirely different question ...

[djmaz]

The math is simple. You need to hit better than 1 in 20 to come out ahead. Example:

Risk 110 on Team A to win 100 for the full game
Risk 110 on Team B to win 100 for the second half

If the middle hits, you win 200. If it doesn't hit, you're out 10. You're risking 10 to win 200.

Now WHEN to middle is an entirely different question ...

I've done that math, but I feel like the fact that you are giving up an almost sure winner with your first bet should be factored in. Let's just assume that first bet is already won. So my idea is that you're actually risking $110 to win $200 (guaranteed win+ juice). Thoughts?