Kenpom predictions for todays games.

[magsmeplease]

Maybe this will help people, maybe it won't. BOL

1	7 Gonzaga vs. 6 Duke NCAA	Duke 75-74 (54%)	5:05 pm	Houston, TX	NRG Stadium	83.3
2	15 Michigan St. vs. 16 Louisville NCAA	Michigan St. 65-64 (51%)	2:20 pm	Syracuse, NY	Carrier Dome	73.1

[magsmeplease]

Replying to my own thread, here are some things that stand out to me...

Both teams shoot at a similar clip, but Gonzaga appears better at limiting their opponents fieldgoal % than Duke is.
Neither team is particularly good at turning the other team over.
Duke though they are smaller seem to have the advantage when it comes to rebounding, which should lead to +Possessions.
Neither team plays great 3 point defense. (Though will it matter in the dome?)
Both teams are similar in the amount of time they give to their benches.
Gonzaga is much more experienced than Duke.
Gonzaga has more length than Duke.

[magsmeplease]

Michigan vs. Louisville

These Ds like to slow the other team down, this game could be played very slow.
Michigan state has a huge advantage for FG%
Louisville is good at turning their opponents over, Mich St. is not.
Louisville gives up Off Rebounds and Mich St. is good at getting them. +Possessions
Louisville is abysmal at shooting from 3.

Mich St is more experienced, Louisville is a little longer.

[robbeduagain]

Replying to my own thread, here are some things that stand out to me...

Both teams shoot at a similar clip, but Gonzaga appears better at limiting their opponents fieldgoal % than Duke is.
Neither team is particularly good at turning the other team over.
Duke though they are smaller seem to have the advantage when it comes to rebounding, which should lead to +Possessions.
Neither team plays great 3 point defense. (Though will it matter in the dome?)
Both teams are similar in the amount of time they give to their benches.
Gonzaga is much more experienced than Duke.
Gonzaga has more length than Duke.

Some of Gonzaga's opponents field goal percentage can surely be attributed to the strength of (or lack of) schedule, wouldn't you think?Other than the dome altered 38% by UCLA friday, they've allowed over 50% shooting during the tournament.I do think they have a better overall offense than Duke, much more efficient. I expect this to a close game, and the Zags experience and execution will be the difference.

[magsmeplease]

Some of Gonzaga's opponents field goal percentage can surely be attributed to the strength of (or lack of) schedule, wouldn't you think?Other than the dome altered 38% by UCLA friday, they've allowed over 50% shooting during the tournament.I do think they have a better overall offense than Duke, much more efficient. I expect this to a close game, and the Zags experience and execution will be the difference.

I think it depends what you are attributing to better or worse schedule. Gonzaga still has to make the shots. It's not like they were playing incompetent basketball teams. I think you could make that argument more effectively if the numbers were greatly skewed.

Here are the top 6 teams in terms of field goal % from 2.

Notre Dame 3	ACC	39.0	20	58.2	1	74.2	29	7.2	23	8.0	41	54.9	140	37.6	83
Gonzaga 2	WCC	40.3	7	57.2	2	68.9	191	6.5	7	8.4	73	57.5	79	32.1	234
Duke 1	ACC	38.9	25	56.6	3	69.1	181	8.5	83	8.7	96	54.6	146	34.0	172
Belmont 15	OVC	37.7	48	56.3	4	69.2	178	12.3	328	9.7	219	58.5	63	47.8	5
Denver	Sum	38.0	39	55.5	5	76.6	10	8.5	80	8.8	117	69.6	1	43.0	21
Stephen F. Austin 12	Slnd	37.3	55	55.4	6	73.4	43	10.2	221	8.6	91	64.7	5	36.6	107
Wisconsin 1	B10	36.4	79	55.2	7	76.4	12	5.9	3	6.8	3	49.8	243	37.5	88

I would tend to say over 38 games that they've played enough high level competition and defense to even out the bottom of the WCC (and really that's what we are talking about here)

This will be a track meet, it'll be close. I honestly am not touching the point spread on this game (this reeks like a game that officials will have a HUGE impact on the final outcome, I am eying the over/under though.

Top teams in terms of defending 2 pointers.

Texas 11	B12	34.7	195	37.7	1	66.3	42	20.0	1	5.9	347	50.6	102	30.8	77
Kentucky 1	SEC	26.7	1	38.8	2	65.5	22	18.3	2	10.1	106	40.0	1	30.4	69
Virginia 2	ACC	30.8	24	40.1	3	64.6	10	13.3	35	9.3	175	49.4	70	36.6	252
North Carolina Central	MEAC	29.1	4	41.3	4	67.9	99	11.0	98	9.5	159	46.8	27	34.5	180
Utah 5	P12	31.2	36	41.4	5	68.2	111	13.6	29	9.3	172	43.2	6	29.3	31
Quinnipiac	MAAC	35.1	212	41.9	6	68.8	142	14.0	23	5.2	351	51.2	121	30.8	76
UNLV	MWC	35.1	215	42.0	7	66.5	45	16.1	6	8.4	260	51.9	149	30.5	70

[robbeduagain]

Replying to my own thread, here are some things that stand out to me...

Both teams shoot at a similar clip, but Gonzaga appears better at limiting their opponents fieldgoal % than Duke is.
Neither team is particularly good at turning the other team over.
Duke though they are smaller seem to have the advantage when it comes to rebounding, which should lead to +Possessions.
Neither team plays great 3 point defense. (Though will it matter in the dome?)
Both teams are similar in the amount of time they give to their benches.
Gonzaga is much more experienced than Duke.
Gonzaga has more length than Duke.

I should have bold and underlined why I responded. I agree whole heartedly with what you are saying. I did make the point that I thought Gonzaga had the more efficient offense. I just think that defensively they have had less challenges than Duke, thus making the defensive fg% a mute point in my mind. I not going to bash the Zags schedule. They've more than proved themselves this year, playing even with Arizona at Arizona, beating St. John's at MSG, basically a home game for the Johnnies, beat SMU and UCLA as well. I'll stay with my pick of Gonzaga. More experience, better execution offensively. It should be a fun game to watch.

[magsmeplease]

Ah! I misread your post.

I see what you are saying, but the Zags did face some teams with pretty good field goal shooting. But it's tough to tell for sure. The margin on this game is really thin. With Duke now only at -2, I think the play is Zags ML or nothing.

I'm trying to figure out right now if the second game in a domed stadium usually marks an increase in shooting percentage or if it's going to be abysmal again.

[chunk]

Good analysis here. I have the Zags +2.5, but agree that this should be a battle. Not a game to load up on.....not that you should ever do that.

[magsmeplease]

Some funky movement with the O/U makes me start to believe that bookies feel shooting will be an issue.

56% of the public is on the over yet the total is dropping a lot of places. Might be the bet to make if you can get under 145.

[magsmeplease]

Pretty close to accurate for the Mich St. - Louisville game.

[DOM-Ganador]

Pretty close to accurate for the Mich St. - Louisville game.

No shit, woulda hit an exacta if that Ville FT that clanked off the rim missed.