anyone crunching Final Four arbs

DOM_Toretto · 03-25-15, 05:47 PM

Ummm except for Arizona would NOT be a 3.3/1 underdog vs wisconsin or UNC. So none of this means anything.

Or am I reading this wrong?

Snowball · 03-25-15, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by DOM_Toretto

Ummm except for Arizona would NOT be a 3.3/1 underdog vs wisconsin or UNC. So none of this means anything.

Or am I reading this wrong?

exactly my point. that's the leeway.

btw.. tonight small Temple ML, Monroe ML, Loy-Chi ML, T-Martin +6
+618 and Monroe alone 105 in equal parts.

DOM_Toretto · 03-25-15, 09:13 PM

No... You're math is wrong bud.

If Zona wins you will have risked total of 330 with the potential to win (profit) 100. So that leaves you 100 worth of 'free roll' to bet on wiscy who would be at besttttt +120 ML, in which case you could break even or win $20. Seems like a lot of work and hope for nothing, since likely wiscy is -120 in which case u can't even hedge.

xdodger19 · 03-25-15, 09:43 PM

Scenario one Bet 240 on Arizona to win the region to win 200
if Arizona meats Wisconsin, you bet Wisconsin moneyline 200 to win 240 if Arizona wins you are even, if Wisonsin wins you are even

Scenario two Xavier wins the first game vs Arizona at 100 for 2000 to win the region
They meat Wisconsin, moneyline on Wisonsin is -300 in this spot, at about -6.5
You could hedge at anything above 600 on Wisconsin Say you did 1200 on Wisconsin and Wisconsin wins you are up 300
And if Xavier wins you are up 800
So if you wanted to find the equilibrium where you would win even on either side you would go about 1600 on Wisconsin vs Xavier if Wisconsin wins you are up overall 433 if Xavier wins you are up 400 overall

If Arizona wins the first game and North Carolina wins you probably are at about North Carolina +200
at that point you just say lets go Wildcats because you are getting the game at -120 instead of -200

If Xavier wins the first game and North Carolina Wins then North Carolina would be favored at about -150
You could hedge on North Carolina by playing like 1200 on North Carolina if they win overall you are up 700
If Xavier beats North Carolina you are up 700

So There is no scenario where you can lose except if Arizona wins and North Carolina wins then beats Arizona

What this may mean is that the odds for Xavier to win the region are off

So you would want Xavier to win ,If Arizona wins then just leave the play alone.

xdodger19 · 03-25-15, 09:56 PM

Oh yeah Wisconsin is the team I think wins the region

Snowball · 03-26-15, 06:59 AM

Originally posted by DOM_Toretto

No... You're math is wrong bud.

If Zona wins you will have risked total of 330 with the potential to win (profit) 100. So that leaves you 100 worth of 'free roll' to bet on wiscy who would be at besttttt +120 ML, in which case you could break even or win $20. Seems like a lot of work and hope for nothing, since likely wiscy is -120 in which case u can't even hedge.

it was only an example. breaking even is winning because you get a free bet on Xavier to win the West at 20/1.
the Arizona 20/23 can be increased if you want more $ out of Arizona.

Snowball · 03-26-15, 07:00 AM

Originally posted by xdodger19

Scenario one Bet 240 on Arizona to win the region to win 200
if Arizona meats Wisconsin, you bet Wisconsin moneyline 200 to win 240 if Arizona wins you are even, if Wisonsin wins you are even

Scenario two Xavier wins the first game vs Arizona at 100 for 2000 to win the region
They meat Wisconsin, moneyline on Wisonsin is -300 in this spot, at about -6.5
You could hedge at anything above 600 on Wisconsin Say you did 1200 on Wisconsin and Wisconsin wins you are up 300
And if Xavier wins you are up 800
So if you wanted to find the equilibrium where you would win even on either side you would go about 1600 on Wisconsin vs Xavier if Wisconsin wins you are up overall 433 if Xavier wins you are up 400 overall

If Arizona wins the first game and North Carolina wins you probably are at about North Carolina +200
at that point you just say lets go Wildcats because you are getting the game at -120 instead of -200

If Xavier wins the first game and North Carolina Wins then North Carolina would be favored at about -150
You could hedge on North Carolina by playing like 1200 on North Carolina if they win overall you are up 700
If Xavier beats North Carolina you are up 700

So There is no scenario where you can lose except if Arizona wins and North Carolina wins then beats Arizona

What this may mean is that the odds for Xavier to win the region are off

So you would want Xavier to win ,If Arizona wins then just leave the play alone.

you get it. Arizona may be increased if you are a firm believer that Xavier won't win.

Snowball · 03-26-15, 07:01 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

exactly my point. that's the leeway.

btw.. tonight small Temple ML, Monroe ML, Loy-Chi ML, T-Martin +6
+618 and Monroe alone 105 in equal parts.

won +618 parlay and Monroe side bet.

Snowball · 03-26-15, 12:57 PM

really funny.. post about guaranteed profits, and nobody wants them.
too complicated.

xdodger19 · 03-26-15, 03:14 PM

Here is another idea say I like Notre Dame +1.5 and am thinking 600 to win 545

Instead I could do this
Wichita st to win by 1-3 100 to win 750
Notre Dame to win by 1-3 100 to win 800
Notre Dame to win by 4-6 150 to win 1500
Notre Dame adjusted line -5.5 250 to win 600

Possible outcomes
first thing to Notice is that I get an extra 1.5 points. Now if I lose by 3 I win instead of lose
Wichita St wins by more than 3, I lose 600 no matter what
Wichita St wins by 1-3 win 250
Notre Dame wins by 1-3 win 300
Notre Dame wins by 4-5 win 1050
Notre Dame wins by 6 hit the jackpot and win 1900
Notre Dame wins by 7 or more win 250

Would you rather have this action as well as getting 1.5 more points

or would you rather just have Notre Dame +1.5 600 to win 545

I prefer this action because I think if Notre Dame wins they win by 4-6 giving me a chance for a bigger payday, a possible jackpot and I get a crucial 1.5 points!

Snowball · 03-26-15, 03:29 PM

lots of books don't let you sell individual game points like that.

xdodger19 · 03-26-15, 03:44 PM

That did not make sense to me I am not selling points.
Instead of playing Notre Dame +1.5 600 to win 545
I am playing 600 in various bets
1. Wichita ST to win by 1-3 by playing this, if Wichita St wins by 3 I win and have gained 1.5 points in actuality But only win 250
2. Notre Dame to win by 1-3 win 300 instead of 545 if this result occurs
3 Notre Dame to Win by 4-5 win 1050 instead of 545 if this result occurs
4. If Notre Dame wins by exactly 6 win 1900
5 If Notre Dame wins by 7 or more win 250

so instead of winning 545 at Notre Dame +1.5

I win all the way to +3 just that depending on the spread I win varying amounts, instead of exactly 545

If I win by 4-6 I hit payday, If I won the bet outside that margin I win anyways

xdodger19 · 03-26-15, 04:25 PM

On your idea bet 240 to win 200 for Arizona to win region
Xavier 100 to win 2000 to win region

If Arizona wins you can hedge however you like there, what you are really looking for is a XAvier victory over Arizona
then If they play Wisconsin you bet like 1000 on the other team so either way you win 660 overall.

so if Arizona wins you have 340 in play to win 200 then you got options, depending on the moneyline.

But if Xavier beats Arizona you are in a great position.

I think its worth the risk

Snowball · 03-26-15, 05:19 PM

win/win. Go X.

SharpAngles · 03-26-15, 06:35 PM

Boys be careful playing these games with the books unless you have a LOT of different accounts spread out.