last Sat of regular season discussion thread

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  • 2daBank
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-26-09
    • 88966

    #1
    last Sat of regular season discussion thread
    lets wrap this thing up the way we been doing Saturdays all season my college hoops sub-forum degen clique!

    i enjoy the hell out of these threads cause they always end up with plenty of good guys i been talking this thing we do since i joined sbr 5+ years ago, and we always are lucky enough to have another handful of good guys with really well thought out approaches join in and make this what it is.

    so thanx to everyone that contributes, the guys that post plays and take the time to give well thought out write ups to show how you came up with it, and the guys that ask more questions about gms than post plays as that is equally as important in keeping the discussion alive and hitting a broader range of games and also it helps me personally focus better than i normally would when im trying to answer a question about a gm i otherwise either passed for a reason or overlooked.

    this thread has avoided 99% of the typical sbr trolling bs pretty much since we started doing them and that a rare and awesome thing in all forum world that isnt strictly moderated..anyways, as we wrapping up the regular season just wanted to tell ya'll why i love taking the time to post here and try to even when my time is short, and thank everyone who participates without the stupidity, chest thumping, dick measuring, disrespectful i told ya so's after the fact bs i cant stand about far too much of sbr.. enough of that sentimental crap. lets jump this shit off..



    provo-2.5..not a surprise if ya been around as it no secret i been all bout this team most the year.. this line feels short to me. not taking anything from butler who a very good team but i would make pc this sized fav on a neutral court and this a gm being played on their court where they have dropped one conf gm all yr and a very strange, uncharacteristic slip up to a bad brown team where they just came off a couple tough road losses, more or less a gm that i believe you just disregard as clearly this isnt a clown team like lsu who no shows any given day.

    dunn and henton will be 2 of the best 3 players on the court, where you wanna put dunham in the convo i wont argue. i think dunn the most talented but he also much more raw but whatever order it really doesnt change the fact 2 of the 3 best are sporting pc jerseys in this gm.. then provo sports a front line with length they can throw at you in waves with two legit 7 footers and 2 very solid players at the 4.. the advantages in this gm are obvious and indisputable. provo will own the inside against a butler team who ranks near the bottom of the conf in 2 point fg percentage with the bigs and penetration from dunn. they will more than likely hod a adv at the ft line, and last meeting even tho butler had more offensive boards it was because they shot far worse as provo gabbed their misses at a higher clip and i would expect the same, so if they dont shoot as well they shouldnt have to with their ability to dominate 2nd chance points..

    butlers one adv will be from behind the arc, but they are not exactly a great 3 point shooting team and they will have to be to have a shot at beating provo here. so i guess it comes down to what you wanna trust. personally im never a fan of trusting a road team to make treys but that becomes even harder when the team they facing consistently is getting high percentage looks from around the paint and scoring from the charity stripe. maybe butler makes a few runs but provo has the ability to get better looks while making points in the paint tough to come by for butler with their length and athleticism...

    this is another no brainer for me like many provo gms have been as it not real often you only have to lay this short a number with the better team at home where they have handled their business all season..
  • davidg123
    SBR Sharp
    • 02-13-15
    • 261

    #2
    I'm liking Pitt. What does everyone think?
    Comment
    • Snowball
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 11-15-09
      • 30064

      #3
      2da well said, PC should be on fire for the home crowd.
      There will be a short ceremony.
      PC is clicking great and other teams have laid down a blueprint
      on how to beat Butler. here's a flyer on the game
      my hopeful 12 noon winners inc. NC State, Arkansas, PC.
      Comment
      • 2daBank
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-26-09
        • 88966

        #4
        Originally posted by davidg123
        I'm liking Pitt. What does everyone think?
        dont even know who they play and can safely tell you it either fade or pass for me.. no idea how you can like this group of chokers? i been all bout fading them after they made that little run and started being talked about as possibly making the tourney. teams like this dont win gms they "need" the show you why they in this spot to begin with..
        Comment
        • CappinTerp
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 11-26-09
          • 9650

          #5
          I am actually looking at SH + PTS. over GWTN. The Hall have been bad and it looks too easy to bet The Hoyas even at - 11.5 ? We will see ..best of luck today!!
          Comment
          • Razorbacks1
            SBR MVP
            • 01-04-07
            • 2010

            #6
            Hey banker and company. Have a few picks, but wanted to say thanks for these threads. You, Louisville, Dom,and3 or 4 others really provide useful info, and like you wrote very little BS. Have a great day lined up....wife and daughter out all day,so its betting and watching CBB all day.

            David sorry to go against ya but Fl. St. is one I really like early. I cannot trust Pitt at all especially on the road. Also like the canes giving 5'. Side note not betting LSU/Hogs, but would not trust a team that lost at home to Tenn.

            Best of luck to all today.....let's make some money.
            Comment
            • davidg123
              SBR Sharp
              • 02-13-15
              • 261

              #7
              Originally posted by Razorbacks1
              Hey banker and company. Have a few picks, but wanted to say thanks for these threads. You, Louisville, Dom,and3 or 4 others really provide useful info, and like you wrote very little BS. Have a great day lined up....wife and daughter out all day,so its betting and watching CBB all day.

              David sorry to go against ya but Fl. St. is one I really like early. I cannot trust Pitt at all especially on the road. Also like the canes giving 5'. Side note not betting LSU/Hogs, but would not trust a team that lost at home to Tenn.

              Best of luck to all today.....let's make some money.
              No problem Razorbacks, I was just throwing ideas out there. Looking at that and Miami -5.5...
              Comment
              • PREMOSIX
                SBR Sharp
                • 01-17-12
                • 477

                #8
                Miami is my lock and im on providence...also Unc tonight
                Comment
                • davidg123
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 02-13-15
                  • 261

                  #9
                  Ok, NCST is at -5 from -5.5. Does anyone else find that weird?
                  Comment
                  • leetreaper
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 10-23-10
                    • 34841

                    #10
                    Davidson plays at Duquesne which themselves are 1H covering machine as well
                    Comment
                    • RetardStrength
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-25-10
                      • 1478

                      #11
                      Some food for thought...

                      Davidson:

                      Record: 22-6
                      Home: 14-2
                      Away: 8-4
                      Home ATS: 11-2
                      Away ATS: 10-2

                      They've covered ATS the past 8 weeks in a row...

                      Todays line: Davidson -7.5 @ Duquesne

                      Highly inclined to take Davidson. I think they win by DD's
                      Comment
                      • survive
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-08-11
                        • 2388

                        #12
                        Iu +2
                        Comment
                        • davidg123
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 02-13-15
                          • 261

                          #13
                          I went with NC State -5 at -105. Not sure why this spread isn't moving towards 7 or 8 (or why it wasn't set there in the first place), but I'll take it!
                          Comment
                          • 2daBank
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-26-09
                            • 88966

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Razorbacks1
                            Hey banker and company. Have a few picks, but wanted to say thanks for these threads. You, Louisville, Dom,and3 or 4 others really provide useful info, and like you wrote very little BS. Have a great day lined up....wife and daughter out all day,so its betting and watching CBB all day.

                            David sorry to go against ya but Fl. St. is one I really like early. I cannot trust Pitt at all especially on the road. Also like the canes giving 5'. Side note not betting LSU/Hogs, but would not trust a team that lost at home to Tenn.

                            Best of luck to all today.....let's make some money.
                            it only took me damn near all season but i finally feel like i figured lsu out (as much s you can figure these inconsistent fuks out anyway), but was proud of myself for passing on them in the vols gm as after talking this team up most the year and generally getting burned whenever i started trusting them in several gms in a row. the vols gm was really obvious to me it was the typical gm where most the year i bet them and they fukk me, only wish i would have been able to turn the tables and fade those bums! anyway all im saying is you can pretty much act like that vols gm didnt happen because this teams mo is to shit the bed vs crappier teams and after getting a couple decent or better wins in a row, typically it wise not to trust them anywhere after they have won 2 in a row and start fading if they have won 3 or more. but against the better teams or after a pathetic performance you can usually expect them to return to playing god ball (only one exception where i think they played 2 really bad gms in a row and of coarse it was vs 2 really bad teams)..they play up to competition and respond from the ugly losses..

                            ok so now that ive made my case to not play lsu but just to look at this gm expecting them to play well what would your thoughts be?


                            for me it all comes down to whether the inconsistent lsu backcourt can handle the pressure w/o turning it over 20+ times. they turned it over 24x vs wvu early in the year which the only example against a similar press type team. however they have changed their pg since then and they have cut down on their turnover rate by a decent amount since the change. the new pg is a rookie and im not saying the fact they been better means they dont struggle with to's against the press.

                            if they can handle the press they will get whatever they want offensively and even when they missing shots mickey and martin will most likely be grabbing anything that doesnt fall for lsu. think we can agree on that as your razorbacks are one of the worst teams in the country controlling their defensive glass. even if tigers turn it over 20x i believe 2nd chance points will have them in the gm throughout. with less than 20 turnovers not only do i think they will score quite a bit i also think they can make life tough for ark offense if forced to play in the half court. simply put less than 20 turnovers and i believe they will at the very least have a chance to win late. more than 20 i still think they get enough offensive boards to be competitive but their chances of winning drop significantly..

                            i was actually pretty surprised when i just looked and saw +7/7.5s out there, would have thought much closer to 4.5/5 as 7 is generally a number i get to when i think the chances for the dog winning are less than what i would say the tigers chances are. catching that number with a team i think has a decent chance is really appealing..


                            i certainly agree with you that it either fade pit or nothing.. fsu a team have have paid very little attention to and so hard gm for me to breakdown other than knowing that fading pit is never a bad idea when ppl think they have to win.. anyone who didnt believe me when i tried telling them to take wake surely by now realizes choking dogs like this team that put themselves in a spot for "must wins" usually show everyone why they in this spot and do what they do best
                            Comment
                            • survive
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-08-11
                              • 2388

                              #15
                              i absolutely hate backing UNC, but i think they get the win tonight. Also like OU, i feel like they have more talent with ellis/alexander out. OU with a lot more motivation here imo coming off that choke job last monday and KU already locked up the big 12
                              Comment
                              • mrlif1
                                SBR MVP
                                • 07-15-13
                                • 1462

                                #16
                                been a up and down week for me, down -5 units at the moment. My inability to close out an exotic is uncanny. Gonna layoff those for any high stakes. Having said that hopefully this board produces some winners today, and hopefully I am here to see them. Coming out firing, lessss rolllll...

                                iowa -6.5 1h -110
                                to win 3

                                aaron whites worse game was against northwestern. Nw playing better of late, got a 2 game win streak against iowa. But even in their last five, Nw conceding 5 points more in 1h. Iowa 10th nationally in 1h margin coupled with revenge (albeit being downplayed by mccaffery), coupled with senior night(afternoon). iowa is already in the tournie, but still have incentive here. With no pressure, a live crowd, and this particularly team visiting, I like this play.

                                Here is to starting the day off right, Gl.
                                Comment
                                • dawgs777
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 02-19-14
                                  • 635

                                  #17
                                  BIG BET ON YALE!! A win, they'll advance to their first NCAA tournament since 1962!!!

                                  my only bet today.

                                  gl all
                                  Comment
                                  • 2daBank
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 01-26-09
                                    • 88966

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by survive
                                    i absolutely hate backing UNC, but i think they get the win tonight. Also like OU, i feel like they have more talent with ellis/alexander out. OU with a lot more motivation here imo coming off that choke job last monday and KU already locked up the big 12
                                    been waiting to bet OU since before the wvu gm.. then that gm couldnt have went any better for Ou here. a gm where ku had to give everything they had to pull it off where many times all 5 starters hands were on knees before fts, they were gassed and expended even more energy to complete the comeback, they lost ellis for this gm, and they got to celebrate winning every b12 championship in history (or whatever). while Ou sitting at home stewing over blowing a mf'in 20 point lead at isu. after ou got down big at the og they took it to ku for a huge portion of that gm and damn near pulled off the kind of comeback isu did to them. im sure that was more than enough to give them plenty of confidence here and think they put one on ku taking out their frustration that this gm isnt for the conf title like it should have been..
                                    Comment
                                    • mrlif1
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 07-15-13
                                      • 1462

                                      #19
                                      Aj English out for Iona. Is Poole playing for Siena?
                                      Comment
                                      • survive
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-08-11
                                        • 2388

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by 2daBank
                                        been waiting to bet OU since before the wvu gm.. then that gm couldnt have went any better for Ou here. a gm where ku had to give everything they had to pull it off where many times all 5 starters hands were on knees before fts, they were gassed and expended even more energy to complete the comeback, they lost ellis for this gm, and they got to celebrate winning every b12 championship in history (or whatever). while Ou sitting at home stewing over blowing a mf'in 20 point lead at isu. after ou got down big at the og they took it to ku for a huge portion of that gm and damn near pulled off the kind of comeback isu did to them. im sure that was more than enough to give them plenty of confidence here and think they put one on ku taking out their frustration that this gm isnt for the conf title like it should have been..
                                        Agreed, this is probably my strongest lean today
                                        Comment
                                        • 2daBank
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-26-09
                                          • 88966

                                          #21
                                          i cant resist lsu +7.5. this more than i would have thought and while i know ark is capable of getting the press working and running teams out of their gym ill take my chances. i think this is a close gm late and with more than 7 even if lsu has to try and play foul gm late i have enough to have a chance.
                                          Comment
                                          • 2daBank
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 01-26-09
                                            • 88966

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by mrlif1
                                            Aj English out for Iona. Is Poole playing for Siena?
                                            oh wow. just put iona in a ml parlay, lol.. i would think poole playing, never heard of anything out of last gm that he played 31minutes against nia..
                                            Comment
                                            • No coincidences
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-18-10
                                              • 76300

                                              #23
                                              LSU plus the points and ML so damn tempting.
                                              Comment
                                              • survive
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-08-11
                                                • 2388

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by mrlif1
                                                Aj English out for Iona. Is Poole playing for Siena?
                                                Where do you see English is out?
                                                Comment
                                                • No coincidences
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 01-18-10
                                                  • 76300

                                                  #25
                                                  MSU will lose to Indiana if Dawson isn't 100%, and I don't think he is.

                                                  Hoosiers basically playing for Crean's job today.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • 2daBank
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 01-26-09
                                                    • 88966

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by CappinTerp
                                                    I am actually looking at SH + PTS. over GWTN. The Hall have been bad and it looks too easy to bet The Hoyas even at - 11.5 ? We will see ..best of luck today!!
                                                    im sure im not the norm but doubt ive ever looked at a double digit spread and thought "oh score, that looks easy". i hate laying dd, lol..
                                                    Comment
                                                    • mrlif1
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 07-15-13
                                                      • 1462

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by survive
                                                      Where do you see English is out?
                                                      Disciplinary reasons. Let me find article.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • survive
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-08-11
                                                        • 2388

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                        MSU will lose to Indiana if Dawson isn't 100%, and I don't think he is.

                                                        Hoosiers basically playing for Crean's job today.
                                                        Agreed, IU is simply a value play for me. Dont think MSU is good enough to be favored on the road here imo
                                                        Comment
                                                        • No coincidences
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 01-18-10
                                                          • 76300

                                                          #29
                                                          LSU just skyrocketed to +8.5 -- is someone out?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mrlif1
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 07-15-13
                                                            • 1462

                                                            #30
                                                            Aj English will play, the headline was an old article. Apologies
                                                            Comment
                                                            • No coincidences
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 01-18-10
                                                              • 76300

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by survive
                                                              Agreed, IU is simply a value play for me. Dont think MSU is good enough to be favored on the road here imo
                                                              MSU blasted IU in East Lansing. Line says it all.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • 2daBank
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-26-09
                                                                • 88966

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                                LSU plus the points and ML so damn tempting.
                                                                i already took the points and ill tell ya this much, if they figure out a way to keep their turnover count under 20 than +355 is way out of whack. 15 turnovers and at the very least they have a shot to win, i honestly think it a really good shot. the turnover question is a big if and obviously every one of those reduces their chances but i think they have so many other things working for them here even if they do struggle with the pressure at times they will hang around..
                                                                Comment
                                                                • mrlif1
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 07-15-13
                                                                  • 1462

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Winthrop -5 1h -105
                                                                  to win 2.5

                                                                  got Redford monkey off back. Longwood doesn't hit 3, and this'll be quick.

                                                                  Gl
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mrlif1
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 07-15-13
                                                                    • 1462

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                                    MSU will lose to Indiana if Dawson isn't 100%, and I don't think he is.

                                                                    Hoosiers basically playing for Crean's job today.
                                                                    ok, iu 1h ml +105 to win 1.05
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • 2daBank
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 01-26-09
                                                                      • 88966

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by mrlif1
                                                                      ok, iu 1h ml +105 to win 1.05
                                                                      sign me up..
                                                                      Comment
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