Conference Tourney Futures/Props

THam12 · 03-02-15, 09:16 AM

A couple i just saw that look to hold some value:

UCLA +1400 to win the pac 12... they seem to be getting hot at thE right time... but tough route.

Davidson +400 to win A 10. Without a doubt one of the most offensively gifted teams in the country. Wide open conference.

Baylor +600 to win big 12. Lets face it, kansas is NOT that good.

rocky9995 · 03-02-15, 10:43 AM

What site has these? These are always some of my favorites to bet on. I've seen all the horizon teams in person this year. Valpo was the most impressive. Defense was so sounds and tough to beat. But ya at least Green Bay avoids Cleve st

xdodger19 · 03-02-15, 11:10 AM

Wanna play Iona to win the maac depending on odds
the maac tourney starts thursday
horizon conference tourney starts tomorrow,green bay sounds like a good team to take

HeeluvaGuy · 03-02-15, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by rocky9995

What site has these?

Last I looked 5Dimes had the A-Sun, Patriot, and Horizon. Not sure where THam pulled his odds. For now I'm only looking at the ones where seeding is set.

These are like Super Bowl props to me - something fun to do, but mostly a shot in the dark.

THam12 · 03-02-15, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Last I looked 5Dimes had the A-Sun, Patriot, and Horizon. Not sure where THam pulled his odds. For now I'm only looking at the ones where seeding is set.

These are like Super Bowl props to me - something fun to do, but mostly a shot in the dark.

I got mine from BetOnline

THam12 · 03-02-15, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by THam12

I got mine from BetOnline

They currently have :
ACC
Pac 12
Big 10
Big 12
SEC
A 10
Big East

2daBank · 03-02-15, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by THam12

A couple i just saw that look to hold some value:

UCLA +1400 to win the pac 12... they seem to be getting hot at thE right time... but tough route.

Davidson +400 to win A 10. Without a doubt one of the most offensively gifted teams in the country. Wide open conference.

Baylor +600 to win big 12. Lets face it, kansas is NOT that good.

baylor +600 looks good to me..

2daBank · 03-02-15, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by xdodger19

Wanna play Iona to win the maac depending on odds
the maac tourney starts thursday
horizon conference tourney starts tomorrow,green bay sounds like a good team to take

iona's odds will most likely suck, and honestly even tho they the best team i dont trust their no defense playing asses not to get clipped.. almost positive ill trust them less than odds suggest you should..

2daBank · 03-02-15, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

baylor +600 looks good to me..

you think this gets better if they get clipped tonight hammer? doubt books that shortsighted but ive never really followed these early like this so little curious if tex beats them if we can get even better number? dont really think tex beats them but line kinda says they do, not good matchup for horns tho as they will be stuck shooting over the zone and they cant shoot..

Regul8er · 03-02-15, 11:44 AM

How about Florida Gulf Coast to win the A-SUN at +270? Just need to win 2 Home games to get to the Championship.

If they get there, and North Florida loses along the way, Dunk City would host the Championship game. Even if they don't, I would think a game at North Florida would be somewhere close to a pick'em.

PorkChop · 03-02-15, 11:48 AM

Throwing money away with UCLA. There not going through Pac-12 tourney.

If betting Baylor, this will be top value before UT game tonight. *Unless somehow they go down tonight..

Louisvillekid1 · 03-02-15, 12:10 PM

someone posts the odds

Louisvillekid1 · 03-02-15, 12:24 PM

America East nobody beating Albany but New Hampshire could be a long shot
Atlantic Sun I think North Florida wins its but SC Upstate could be a long shot
Big South Coastal is playing @ home and is my pick to win it.
CAA is wide open, Excited to bet this tournament as we are going to get some nice doggies here
MAAC nobody touching Iona
Missouri Valley belongs to the Shockers
Ohio Valley Murray ST isn't losing
Southern I think ETSU could make a run and pull a few upsets
Summit I think IPFW at a nice price is worth a shot

I don't bet too many conference futures but it is hands down my favorite time of the year to bet college hoops, including the big dance.

PorkChop · 03-02-15, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

I don't bet too many conference futures but it is hands down my favorite time of the year to bet college hoops, including the big dance.

Totally agree. Best time of year in my opinion. Future bets that turn around in less than 2 weeks. What more can we ask for

xdodger19 · 03-02-15, 04:13 PM

would u not make more by betting on green bay on the moneyline every game
say first game u risk 100 to win 40, then second game risk 100 to win 80 then in the championship game risk 100 to win 140.
you would be up like 275, and if you lose the second game you are -65 instead of the -100
if u lose the third game you up by like 20 bucks still.
same principle applies at +270
so its a bad play to make
its only a good play if you are getting like +800
you never collect on the games u won.
Its like a 3 team parlay but without the proper payout
say green bay is game 1 -375 game 2 -130 game 3 they would be about +140

Using the money line system U actually win something back if the team you select does not win the championship
u win 35 bucks the first game. Then in the second game you win like 75 bucks Now your up 110 if you lose the championship game u come out even. If you make the future bet and lose the championship game, your down 100
this is a suckers bet because its only +ev at about +800

The team to make the play on is actually oakland +1200
say you bet a 100, then if they win its worth your while.
But with Green Bay you are better off playing every game on the moneyline. And probably taking the points in the championship game vs Valparasio

In this system if you win the first two games and lose the championship you come out even
If you win the championship you are up like the same amount.

Scenario
Green Bay Illinois chicago moneyline -280 100 to win 50 quarterfinal
Cleveland St -130 100 to win 80 semifinal if Green Bay gets to the final you are up +130
take the money you won and put it on Green Bay and take the points too in the final Green Bay +5.5 at Valparasio. Now you have the points too. And if you lose you come out even.
This reduces your risk factor.

So at +270 It is -ev

HeeluvaGuy · 03-02-15, 04:32 PM

Not bad thoughts, and it'll be worth monitoring, but there are a couple of things to add here that might change your analysis. First, GB has a bye all the way through to the semis, so there are only two, not three, games. Second, your theory falls apart if chalk doesn't hold.

Regul8er · 03-02-15, 04:43 PM

How about picking either Lehigh or Lafayette to win the Patriot League???

You can grab Lehigh at +425 and Lafayette at +500. Historically, two of the solid programs in the Conference, and they own the #2 and #3 RPI in the Conference. And it's not like Bucknell is a killer at the top......they did lose 5 conference games.

I think this one is worth a stab.

xdodger19 · 03-02-15, 05:00 PM

In this case since there is only 2 games to get through, you are really playing a 2 team money line parlay
one game at -140 the other game at +140. If you win both games you win the standard 2 team parlay amount +270
The problem with this is you don't get the +5.5 points vs Valparasio in the championship game

In this scenario with the bye, say Green Bay plays Cleveland St. you money line it real close at like -125 if you win your up like 80

if they lose to cleveland st in both scenarios you are down 100,

if they win then you have 2 options

1) Take the 80 and put it on Green Bay +140 in the championship game on the moneyline
if win your up about 215 but if you lose you are even.
Or take the 80 then take Green Bay and the 5.5 points and if win up 160. but if lose you are even

2) Or would you rather be down 100 no points with Green Bay on the road straight up to win 270
and get your 100 back,and if they lose you lose 100

The moneyline scenario is better because if you lose the final you are even
if you win your up 160. And you have a better chance at winning because you get 5.5 points

this scenario over ten games your expected ev is+800
in the future scenario you lose 100 say 6 out of ten times -600
you win 270 4times 1080 -600 = +440 ev and thats generous to say GB has a 40 percent chance in the final straight up
in this scenario your ev is +44 if Green Bay has a 40 percent chance of winning straight up.

The money line play here has an ev of +80

In the Lafayette play you are better off just playing them every game with the points
If they win it all you are up 300.
If they win the first game, the worst you can do is come out even

oakland +1200 is the only play I see here that would be worth the risk

THam12 · 03-02-15, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by xdodger19

In this case since there is only 2 games to get through, you are really playing a 2 team money line parlay
one game at -140 the other game at +140. If you win both games you win the standard 2 team parlay amount +270
The problem with this is you don't get the +5.5 points vs Valparasio in the championship game

In this scenario with the bye, say Green Bay plays Cleveland St. you money line it real close at like -125 if you win your up like 80

if they lose to cleveland st in both scenarios you are down 100,

if they win then you have 2 options

1) Take the 80 and put it on Green Bay +140 in the championship game on the moneyline
if win your up about 215 but if you lose you are even.
Or take the 80 then take Green Bay and the 5.5 points and if win up 160. but if lose you are even

2) Or would you rather be down 100 no points with Green Bay on the road straight up to win 270
and get your 100 back,and if they lose you lose 100

The moneyline scenario is better because if you lose the final you are even
if you win your up 160. And you have a better chance at winning because you get 5.5 points

this scenario over ten games your expected ev is+800
in the future scenario you lose 100 say 6 out of ten times -600
you win 270 4times 1080 -600 = +440 ev and thats generous to say GB has a 40 percent chance in the final straight up
in this scenario your ev is +44 if Green Bay has a 40 percent chance of winning straight up.

The money line play here has an ev of +80

Blah

HeeluvaGuy · 03-04-15, 12:15 AM

Ohio Valley Conference:

UT-Martin +1200
I realize Murray St. will likely win this thing, but there's no value on them at -135. UTM played the Racers close twice and is on their side of the bracket. If UTM advances on Thursday, they'll play Murray St. for the third time this year, and the second time within a week. If (and it's a big if) they can get past Murray St, Martin has a real chance to advance to the Big Dance.

Longshot? Yes. Fun? I hope so.

HeeluvaGuy · 03-08-15, 10:21 PM

Big West Conference:

UC-Davis +350
Much easier side of the bracket to get to the finals where you can hedge to lock in a profit.