North Carolina/Radford: 164.5???

[TMN]

Most of what I've read on this forum is that people think the OVER is a good bet here. This just doesn't add up in my head.

Radford is high scoring Big South team. Against teams like Gardner-Webb and Presbyterian they put up around 60-70 points (averaging this season 70 ppg), and most recently against VMI they posted over a hundred. But there is literally no semblance of defense in this conference. When your best defensive team has an efficiency rating of 138 (and the rest not even close, dropping off into 280s) of course you're going to put up points. Against UNC - a top 30 defensive team (not amazing, but a huge wall for Radford), I expect them to put up 60 points, and that is giving them some credit.

So where does that leave me for total points? Is UNC going to run the table and score 105+? They do it occasionally: this year against Maryland, College of Charleston, Chaminade and UNC Ashville. That's 4 games. 4 games with Ty Lawson at 100%. 4 games out of 34. By the same token I realize that defense in the ACC is better than in the Big South - but even in pre-conference play against similar stuggler teams they were putting up totals well below 100.

Someone convince me I'm wrong?

[Lets_Get_Money]

I would like to hear what the coach of the opposition says, last year the team that faced UNC said they were gonna run and gun with them and score was 112-70.

From Looking at all of Radfords Scorecards they play better when playing uptempo games, So I think there gonna go with the strategy that got them there.

[unde0087]

My advice to you as a hardcore UNC fan that bets alot of their totals is don't play it. There is no edge, Lawson will be out which means UNC has to put more into the defensive side of the ball. But on the other hand UNC can play up tempo and still put a monster number up like they usually do against teams from smaller conferences because they have a superior frontline. UNC will get theirs just don't know if Radford will be able to score enough.

[ACCBball]

I am sticking with the over even without Lawson. Radfod is a 16 seed for a reason and UNC will put up 100+ without Lawson. They will get whatever they way on the offensive end and UNC's d this year is nothing to be scared about. They beat you by outscoring you and any UNC fan would admit that. Once they are up 25 I dont see them play hard on D, no college kid does so Radford should get their pts in the 2nd half. Radford does play an up tempo game which is great for the over because they will run and gun as well. I see the final 105-70.