Someone give me a credible argument on this please

Lets_Get_Money · 03-18-09, 12:41 AM

How can any trust Duke after last year?

Out of the 3's

Mizzu play a full court press and there going up against Ivy Leaguers, you can get burned playing like that. Cuse flamed out of the tourney a few years ago after a great Big East Tourney. The Kansas game, the opposition coach said that the PG is NBA Calaiber, and Steve Nash Upsetted a #2 seed before

Gonzaga is probably the only safe one

bostonboss · 03-18-09, 01:29 AM

morgan state (15) has a chance against oklahoma(2) they have size and senior guards.....oklahoma is a one man team....if griffin is off who knows...

(14) north dakota sate vs (3) kansas.....kansas is playing like crap into the tourney....north dakota ballhawks and hustles....very poised for a smaller school....

Russell · 03-18-09, 11:27 AM

Morgan St???? No way in hell do they beat Oklahoma, they might cover the spread, but st8 up win, not hapnin

cheesehead004 · 03-18-09, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by bostonboss

oklahoma is a one man team....if griffin is off who knows...

LOLOLOLOOLOL ever heard of willie warren? austin johnson? taylor griffin?

stop talking

JColli32 · 03-18-09, 11:35 AM

I took no 4's will lose to a 13 (+120) I also feel like no 3's will Lose

007Fatty · 03-18-09, 11:35 AM

yea somehow i deff dont see morgan st winning straight up haha

007Fatty · 03-18-09, 11:37 AM

where are you guys getting these prop bets?

cheesehead004 · 03-18-09, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by JColli32

I took no 4's will lose to a 13 (+120) I also feel like no 3's will Lose

xavier sucks, they can lose

JColli32 · 03-18-09, 11:41 AM

thats my only worry but im willing to get a line of +120 on xavier ML

DennisT · 03-18-09, 11:42 AM

stingyrivers

I have spent 20 years playing these games. I cnnstantly look for these upsets. I see no 3 seeds going down. If you insist your best bet. Duke goes down. BOL.

stevek789 · 03-18-09, 12:50 PM

i am thinking parlayign the ML of 8 games (4 1st vs 16 games, and 4 2nd vs 15 games)

do you see this as free money?

stingyrivers · 03-18-09, 01:58 PM

that is as close to free money as it gets.... the problem you have is most books dont offer ML on any 1 seeds and maybe ML for only 2 of the 4 #2 seeds..... which sucks because if the ML's for all 1 and 2 seeds were available each year, i would bet my net worth each March on the 8 team Ml parlay

DennisT · 03-18-09, 02:16 PM

Stevek 789

This play appears logical. Best advice watch M.L, Closely. BOL

stingyrivers · 03-18-09, 02:27 PM

i just locked it in fairly large --

no 14, 15, 16 seed victories in the tourney

10 units at +105

interestingly enough the line for this prop opened at -110 at the greek where i just played it and it moved from -110 to +105... i know people have hyper-sensitive radars for big upsets in the tourney, but that line movement kind of surprised me....

i like the play, i also think it has value here because it is essentially a ML parlay of all the 1, 2 and 3 seeds.... which if you were able to book that parlay, i am pretty sure the Ml's involved would not come to a price at +105 at best it would be -110....

i also took the no 4 seeds losing with a much smaller wager, only because i got it at +150 at the greek..... even if it loses the price was right....

so what do you say guys? no gigantic upsets in the first round

Masu485 · 03-18-09, 04:01 PM

i'm heard Chattanooga has a good chance to upset Uconn, but i think i'll be playing Uconn -20 in any case. good?

unde0087 · 03-18-09, 04:47 PM

IMO, 16,15, or 14 seeds have no chance

Alpinestars7 · 03-18-09, 06:10 PM

looks like a good bet i might have to play it also.....right now tho it is -115 on prop bet

bostonboss · 03-19-09, 12:28 AM

morgan state beat maryland at maryland this yr and played close with some other big league teams....chokelahoma blows...we all know it...they couldn't even beat the pokes tourney time.....we all saw what happened when griffin was out they fell flat on their faces...oklahoma is a one man team.....good football school...basketball is over rated.

stingyrivers · 03-19-09, 12:33 AM

yeah Alpine... that used to happn to me a lot here last year, i would see a phat line at the greek post here about it, and within minutes it moves big.... it went from +105 to -115 within minutes of me posting their line here.... that's why i didnt post it at the top of the thread, happened too many times to me here last year

it is back down to -110 now though

bostonboss · 03-19-09, 12:53 AM

not to mention according to pregame.com 86 perent of wagers on the moneyline for that game is on morgan state...

Shortstop · 03-19-09, 03:02 AM

How many of you even know where Morgan State is?

Fiasco · 03-19-09, 03:09 AM

I bet the yes here (not for value or anything)

I think it is a highly even field this year and upsets will be all over the board tomorrow.

Kansas and Syracuse are my 2 that have the best chance of being knocked off (Kansas isn't out of the 1st round in my bracket pools.)

donjuan · 03-19-09, 03:19 AM

53.4% for 14, 15 or 16 to win at least one game IMO. This is one of the easier props to value out there.

Shortstop · 03-19-09, 03:21 AM

Parlay the ML for all 14,15,16 seeds. What's it pay risking $100?

Fiasco · 03-19-09, 03:25 AM

so you would need -114 or better on yes then to have made a good bet for value don?

Shortstop · 03-19-09, 07:42 PM

Originally posted by stingyrivers

i just locked it in fairly large --

no 14, 15, 16 seed victories in the tourney

10 units at +105

interestingly enough the line for this prop opened at -110 at the greek where i just played it and it moved from -110 to +105... i know people have hyper-sensitive radars for big upsets in the tourney, but that line movement kind of surprised me....

i like the play, i also think it has value here because it is essentially a ML parlay of all the 1, 2 and 3 seeds.... which if you were able to book that parlay, i am pretty sure the Ml's involved would not come to a price at +105 at best it would be -110....

i also took the no 4 seeds losing with a much smaller wager, only because i got it at +150 at the greek..... even if it loses the price was right....

so what do you say guys? no gigantic upsets in the first round

Gettin' nervous? I need Nova to come back and win too.

stingyrivers · 03-20-09, 12:21 AM

yes, shortstop, more than nervous at the start of the 2nd half i resigned myself to give up on the bet.... we dodged a huge bullet with nova, but even when they won, i am still really scared about cuse, jayhawks and mizzou tomorrow, actually thinking of hedging with the dog ML's, especially with the cuse and kansas games that tip off in the early group of games

yisman · 03-20-09, 12:37 AM

what was the odds of the bet? I'm sure you did not get good value.

anyway, if you parlayed ML, let's see:

Villanova -1250
North Carolina -15000
Memphis -4500
Gonzaga -980
Duke -5500
UConn -3800
Syracuse -780
Louisville -5000
Pittsburgh -5000
Michigan State -1900
Missouri -800
Kansas -480

using Matchbook

I don't think anyone would let you make that parlay, but if they did, that would be something like -170.

yisman · 03-20-09, 12:54 AM

Originally posted by stingyrivers

i just locked it in fairly large --

no 14, 15, 16 seed victories in the tourney

10 units at +105

that is an excellent line. I have no idea how a book could offer that. Parlaying MLs comes nowhere near that.

stingyrivers · 03-20-09, 12:56 AM

i know thats why i jumped on it.... if u were to ML parlay all the 1, 2 and 3 seeds you wouldnt get close to +105 payoff

but the 3 number 3 seeds still scare me a bit tomorrow

calculating the 12 ML's right now to see how good of a value +105 is on this play

yisman · 03-20-09, 12:59 AM

It's no lock to win because I don't trust Syracuse, although I do think Kansas will win.

I'm just stunned that you got + odds on something that ML parlay wouldn't approach.

Typically these props screw you over by not offering the value you would get by just parlaying the MLs, but I guess this one didn't.

I'm considering taking Kansas ML, but I think I won't. At first glance, -480 looked solid, but looking deeper, the other books are offering more like -650, which isn't worth it. Also, North Dakota State is a damn good team for a #14 seed.

stingyrivers · 03-20-09, 01:04 AM

wow... turns out at +105 it really wasnt good value on the prop, i just calculated the 12 Ml's for the 1, 2 and 3 seeds that you posted and it came out to +115 for a ML parlay of all the 1, 2 and 3 seeds....

+105 was damn good for me bc at the greek i couldnt parlay all the seeds anyway because they dont off all those Ml's so the prop worked as a good substitute for my goal and +105 was a good price to hit the prop bet at because all the time surrounding that small window of time, it was at -110 and -115 for the no side of it.....

nonetheless tomorrow still worries me

Fiasco · 03-20-09, 01:08 AM

well one of us will win tomorrow...

cause I have the yes

ND St and SF Austin are my 2 that I think pull the upset (1 of them)

frustrating day today though

yisman · 03-20-09, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by stingyrivers

wow... turns out at +105 it really wasnt good value on the prop, i just calculated the 12 Ml's for the 1, 2 and 3 seeds that you posted and it came out to +115 for a ML parlay of all the 1, 2 and 3 seeds....

+105 was damn good for me bc at the greek i couldnt parlay all the seeds anyway because they dont off all those Ml's so the prop worked as a good substitute for my goal and +105 was a good price to hit the prop bet at because all the time surrounding that small window of time, it was at -110 and -115 for the no side of it.....

nonetheless tomorrow still worries me

on my parlay calculator it was still showing as -.