~2009 NCAA Dog Tracker~

[RoagBettor]

Well guys as they say at the poker table I'm "all-in". I have Syracuse, Missouri and/or Kansas as parts/all of 5 parlays and teasers using my whole bankroll. Kansas is the one I need the most, they only need to win by 3 for me to hit a nice 3 team/8 pt teaser that includes Cleveland and the Lakers last night who both covered.

Good luck to everyone today.

[jaymac82980]

Kansas over 143

[Jimbo42]

Good Morning! What Up!,
Okay back to the NBA full slate tonight..These college games are fun but the NBA is what I really like to bet. Here are the games that I -as CK likes to say- am smokin on.
Toronto -1
New Jersey (need to check that line)
Utah -5
Golden State +1
None have been booked yet. These are the interesting plays to me. Also gonna smash em on some halftime plays tonight.
GL

[Jimbo42]

Oops, Just noticed that Pho3nix has a NBA thread going... will post the NBA over there..

[BrandonLaz]

Rough day yesterday as I went only 2-4 in my wagers. Hopefully I turn it around today. I have one NBA play over in pho3nix thread on the NBA page here are my plays and write-ups in the NCAA today.

North Dakota State vs Kansas (-9)

North Dakota State has had a great season winning 26 games. The Jayhawks lost in the Big 12 quarterfinals to Baylor but closing out the regular season they won six of their last seven and went 5-1-1 ATS down the stretch. They are in their 20th straight Big Dance and they are on ATS runs of 22-8-1 overall, 13-6 in non-conference action, 36-15-1 against teams with winning records and last year they went 5-1 ATS en route to the national crown. Kansas is still the defending national champion and they might have lost all the starters from their championship team of last year, but they have a lot of guys that are holdovers from it still. North Dakota State just doesn't play many lined contests, and while the Bison might have been good for their conference, this is a step up in class they aren't ready for. They won the Summit League title with a 66-64 win over Oakland. They played two other tourney teams this season in Minnesota, losing 90-76 and losing at USC 61-57. Kansas is much better than either of those two. This is the first year of eligibility for the Bison squad, and it is very impressive what they accomplished to get here. All the glamor and lights of the tournament will be to much for this young team in their first appearance on the big stage though as Kansas runs away with this game. Take the defending champions here, because somebody has to rip that tile away from them.

Kansas -9 (Largest)

Cleveland State (+8) vs Wake Forest

Cleveland State is the kind of team that could win this game outright. As an underdog on the season they are 5-1 ATS, in all neutral court games they are 2-1 ATS, in non-conference games they are 6-3 ATS, and in all games for the whole season they are an impressive 19-12 ATS. Wake Forest in all neutral court games is only 1-3 ATS, and on Friday nights a horrible 0-3 ATS. Cleveland State plays defense better than a lot of the teams in the ACC even play. Wake Forest is going to be shocked when they go up against the team that is only allowing 58.9 PPG today. Cleveland State won't be able to completely shut out Wake Forest today, but they will cause enough turnovers and get out on enough fast breaks to get some easy baskets. That will keep this game much closer than people would have liked or predicted. If you look at last years tournament there where 6 upsets on day 2 out of the possible 16 games. Today I expect history to perhaps not strike again, but some of the higher seeds will get scares. Go with the underdog here as they probably won't have enough to pull off the upset, but they will keep it under the number with ease.

Cleveland State +8 (Medium Wager)

Siena vs Ohio State (-3)

Siena is a money burning team on the year, while OSU has been quite the opposite. In all games on the year Siena is only 14-17 ATS compared to the 17-11 ATS in all games for OSU. Ohio State is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the season in neutral court games which bodes well for them playing a team that is only 1-3 ATS on the neutral court. Ohio State has been playing some great basketball to close out the season. They are doing it on both sides of the ball right now especially on the defensive end. This is the most important trait to look at when you are trying to win in the postseason. Their great defense has led to many scoring opportunities on the offensive end. I look for this to happen quite often against the poor defense of Siena. Roll with Ohio State today as they are going to blow this game open in the 4th quarter.

Ohio State -3 (Medium Wager)

Dayton vs West Virginia (-9)

Tough matchup for Dayton, who has only two players averaging double-digits in scoring. The Flyers play good defense, but West Virginia plays it even better, surrendering only 41.9 percent shooting from the field playing in the rugged Big East conference. Dayton went just 2-3 SU in its final five games and 4-4 ATS in its last eight overall. West Virginia is on ATS runs of 8-1-1 in The Big Dance, 6-1 after a non-cover, 5-2 on Fridays and 4-0 after a SU loss. I am rolling West Virginia minus the points here tonight as I feel they should dominate this game from start to finish and could sneak farther than anybody thought into the tournament.

West Virginia -9 (Small Wager)

[Cassidy]

What about fridays advise to be a very bad day to play dogs, especially road dogs?

[cocknocker]

Okay boys and girls, here's my take on the early games:

Stephen F. Austin+11.5 or 12
Marquette-5
Tennessee-2
Kansas (BIG)

[BrandonLaz]

I like the Stephen F. Austin play I watched them in person a few times this year granted it was against other Southland teams like UCA, but they looked very capable of pulling off some drama in the Big Dance. Glad to see you are on Kansas large as well CK that makes me feel better about the play. I do like the Marquette play the line movement confused me so I avoided and I have no idea with the Tennessee game so I am staying far away from that one.

[repski]

4 games with significant RLM

Utah: the line opened @ +1 now has moved to -1 with 55% of public on Arizona
Clevland St.: the line has been sitting around 8/7.5 with 70% on Wake
Cornell: the line opened @ -14 stands now @ -12.5 with over 70% on Mizzou
Utah St: line opened -7 now @ -5...with the public split 50/50

RLM worked VERY well yesterday:
American
Texas A&M
Washington
Maryland
Michaigan
WKU
VCU
N.Iowa
all had RLM in their favor...where it didn't work well was with the 1 & 2 seeds....LSU & Texas bucked the trend

[peterpan19]

kansas -9 only play early play for me today

GL

[kmarinouofm]

lets see how it does today repski.. what resource do you use to check the betting public?

[repski]

Interesting trend since 1991

Teams seeded #13, #14 and #15 are a solid 33-13 ATS vs. a foe off a win, provided our 13-15 seeded team is also off a win.

Cornell fits the criteria today

[kmarinouofm]

Them ivy boys have a lot to prove

[repski]

OKLA St. +2.5

OK St. is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 overall
OK St. is 16-7-2 ATS in their last 25 neutral sitw games
Tenn is 1-4 ATS last 5 vs Big 12

[mkchung]

repski, with the rlm which team would you play? utah since it went from +1 to -1 or az?

[repski]

repski, with the rlm which team would you play? utah since it went from +1 to -1 or az?

Utah...since the line moved 2 pts in their favor even though a higher % of the bets are on Zona

[peterpan19]

mhh.... lets see what the kansas line will be for the 2nd half, got the feeling they will pull away in the second...

[mkchung]

respki, so you move with the rlm trend? utah state, since it dropped 2, you would have played marquette?

[peterpan19]

syracuse -2 2H

[jaymac82980]

i gotta believe syracuse will continue to kill it 2H. -2 is the play

[BmoreBucco]

Prop of the day:

Wake is very big and Cleveland State has four starters 6'5" or shorter. I think Wake pounds the ball inside all night. Taking into account Cleveland State's point guard Jackson is the Defensive Player of the Year in the Horizon League, I'm thinking...

Jeff Teague under 20 points (-120)

Also booked:

Florida State -2 (bought hook)

Pittsburgh -11.5 1st half

WVU -9

Portland State +10.5

Miami +5

Two parlays:

WVU -9
Arizona State -6
Cornell +12.5

Arizona +1.5
Wake -7.5
Siena +3

[repski]

respki, so you move with the rlm trend? utah state, since it dropped 2, you would have played marquette?

yup...I stayed away from that one.....personally though..

[repski]

Syracuse is shooting 62% from the field and Stephen is 27%.....that won't continue...I'll pass on the 2nd half

[jaymac82980]

that kansas 2H makes me nervous. will they really push the lead that much more? lots of 3's can mean back door cover

[jaymac82980]

Rep, im banking on the fact that syracuse will continue to play well and cover the 2 points, but im also thinking that Steph will score some more so i can cover my over teaser and parlay with the kansas over

[repski]

we need for some one to hit Ben Woodside in the knees with a bat at halftime...he's single handedly keeping them in the game

[peterpan19]

tenn -3 2H
tenn only shooting 40% and oklahoma an insane 55%

kansas up by 9 already, so everyone who likes to hedge put some money on dakota 2H +2.5, even if I would play kansas -2.5 2H, they will not let em back into this game

repski i like the idea with the bat though...

[jaymac82980]

2H over 70 should cover, but I got a lot riding on the games over, which is the same pretty much, no point in doubling my bet - you never know!

[repski]

Rep, im banking on the fact that syracuse will continue to play well and cover the 2 points, but im also thinking that Steph will score some more so i can cover my over teaser and parlay with the kansas over

Good luck!!
I have Syracuse going quite deep so I'm enjoying this game

[jaymac82980]

of course now both teams arent scoring. SUCKS

[repski]

Kansas better get it going....

I hate Ben Woodside !!

[BmoreBucco]

Kansas better get it going....

They need to lob to Aldridge every time down the floor.

[wangichu]

got the movement i wanted...

firing on
SIENA ML
TEMPLE +5/ML

[jaymac82980]

any first half thoughts for the next games?

[peterpan19]

lets go KANSAS ... I need you
also lets go Tenn 2H bet is on the line here...

Marquette and syracuse 2H best are toast...