~2009 NCAA Dog Tracker~

[cocknocker]

Okay Dexter, here is what I like in the early games:

Northern Iowa+8.5
Northern Iowa +4.5 1st half
North Carolina-25
North Carolina-14.5 1st half
BYU-150 or less moneyline
Memphis-11 1st half

[Dexter]

I.m new at this computer game. While I;ll take what help I can get no one .Who cares D.on;t take the dogs. Madeness. BOL.

are you taking all the favorites?

[peterpan19]

well I have to agree with ck on the mem 1st half play...
also taking byu -2 (1point buy) and lsu -1.5 for the early games...

GL

[Cassidy]

If the favorite has acheived the overall game spread at the half, and the 1st half went way over the total, then play the under for the 2nd half.

You mean over/under for the game, or just the favorite?

[peterpan19]

cassidy
I think he means: lets say mem wins the 1H today 50-25, meaning mem already covered the game spread of -20 and also went way over the total for the 1H (61.5) .... than you should take the under in the 2H no matter what.... I think thats what ck meant...

[repski]

I noticed something VERY odd while researching games....Pomeroy ratings....rates the ACC the #1 conference....followed by the PAC 10 #2???? then the Big East #3

am I being biased from the East Coast...I thought the PAC10 was awful this year....

[repski]

CK,
do you watch or bother with the RLM in any of these BIG lines??

[peterpan19]

repski
here is the link for everyone

well stat wise it seems to be true....I gues we will find out today how strong they really are...

[tretch]

I noticed something VERY odd while researching games....Pomeroy ratings....rates the ACC the #1 conference....followed by the PAC 10 #2???? then the Big East #3

am I being biased from the East Coast...I thought the PAC10 was awful this year....

i wouldnt place them 2nd but the reason people are calling them awful this year is becuase the top 5 teams essentially beat eachother so there werent clearcut ranking in the conference. i do feel people are overlooking them though especially in the 1st round. i think all except arizona will advance.

[RoagBettor]

I had some real sh*t luck last night both ways. VA Tech and K-State both tied the game late and won in overtime to cover in my teasers. Then I had a nice 6-teamer going that included the Wizards, all they need to do was cover +12 and of course they tanked the 2nd half and it ended up being a push which is a loss for the teaser. Oh well, can't complain overall.

I'm heavy on Syracuse, Oklahoma, Kansas Purdue and Missouri in 5 teasers for today and tomorrow.

[Dexter]

Okay Dexter, here is what I like in the early games:


Memphis-11 1st half

oh yeah

[repski]

i wouldnt place them 2nd but the reason people are calling them awful this year is becuase the top 5 teams essentially beat eachother so there werent clearcut ranking in the conference. i do feel people are overlooking them though especially in the 1st round. i think all except arizona will advance.

thats funny I only had USC...

[repski]

Mich/Clemson

-something to think about...Clemson last in ACC 3pt% allowed....Michigan #1 in Big Ten 3pt attempts...Beilien with time to prepare is awesome..+5 could be a gift

[cocknocker]

Michigan is the correct call on that one

[cocknocker]

In the second set of games, I like

Clemson-4 (Buying a point) Flip-flopped on Michigan-Not used to the lights
Washington-5.5 (buying hook online, playing it at 6 here)
Rhode Island+1 for the NIT.

[JGILL50]

CK i new the rhode island love from you was coming lol lets do it

[Dexter]

Thursday 3/19 (All Lines will be The Greeks Closing)

Binghamton +24 (P)
Minnesota +4.5 (L)
Radford +26 (L)
Butler +1.5 (L)
Tenn Chat +20.5 (L)
Texas A&M +3 (W)
American +15 (W)
Va Comm +8.5(W)
CS Northridge +19.5 (W)
Maryland +1 (W)
Morgan St +15 (L)
Michigan +5 (W)
N. Iowa +8.5 (W)
Miss St +6 (L)
W. Kentucky +5.5 (W)
Akron +13.5 (W)

Record for Day: 9-6-1

Cumulative: 9-6-1

[TheLemonDropKid]

Okay Dexter, here is what I like in the early games:

Northern Iowa+8.5
Northern Iowa +4.5 1st half
North Carolina-25
North Carolina-14.5 1st half
BYU-150 or less moneyline
Memphis-11 1st half

Hey CK.......I've only got 1 unit left for the week. I already booked Memphis -12 1H for half a unit......my question is this.....should I go ahead and put the full unit on this game instead of just half.....I would be done for the week if it loses.....or should I just stick with the half-unit bet?

[TheLemonDropKid]

Hey CK.......I've only got 1 unit left for the week. I already booked Memphis -12 1H for half a unit......my question is this.....should I go ahead and put the full unit on this game instead of just half.....I would be done for the week if it loses.....or should I just stick with the half-unit bet?

Any other CK mafia bros can feel free to chime in as well.....I need guidance.....lol

[shoebox]

Id go under in memphis lemon

GL

[Cassidy]

Are you starting with butler +1 1H?

[BrandonLaz]

Sorry for the late post in here I didn't realize that the Mafia had a post in the NCAA forum. Anyway these are my plays for the day and be warned I am a Big Ten homer. I tried to remain as unbiased as possible, but I have watched more of there games this year than any other conference this season so I feel I have a finger on the pulse of that conference. Anyway good luck to everyone in their games today I hope everyone makes some cash.

Northern Iowa vs Purdue (-8.0)

Northern Iowa should be at least double digit dogs here against a Purdue squad that is very solid especially on the defensive side of the ball only giving up 59.1 ppg. Purdue like the rest of the Big Ten is not the favorite of the public to bet on. In this game the oddsmakers are taking full advantage of that as they know everyone will be on Northern Iowa. Don't get sucked in by the semi-large line when it should be much higher in all honesty. When playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons Purdue is 27-13 ATS, and after a conference game over the last 3 seasons they are 37-19. Northern Iowa looks good thanks to their weak conference, but when you actually look at there record in non-conference games they are only 2-6 ATS. Take Purdue in this spot as they win the game with ease today.

Purdue -8 (Medium Wager)

VA Commonwealth vs UCLA (-7.5)

VA Commonwealth is picked by most people to win this game outright. It is to bad the public is flat out wrong today. Let me tell you when the public is strongly leaning a certain way the oddsmakers are not going to make a mistake. This is a trap all the way from start to finish. UCLA would never be put as a 7.5 favorite if it was not the play here. EVERYBODY and I mean EVERYBODY is loading up there money on VA Commonwealth tomorrow. When the total is 130 to 139.5 VA Commonwealth is 4-9 ATS, when playing against a team with a winning record they are 7-11 ATS, and after allowing 60 points or less they are 5-9 ATS. UCLA has way to much talent and will put it all out on the table today to prove the nation wrong. Enjoy the game as everyone else is crying in their beer mugs as UCLA dominates the game from start to finish.

UCLA -7.5 (LARGEST PLAY)

Michigan Wolverines (+5) vs Clemson

The Michigan Wolverines in non-conference games are an amazing 6-1 ATS. This is including two huge wins against Duke and UCLA. Clemson has come into this game having lost four of their last five games both SU and ATS. They look nothing like the team that started out 16-0 SU. The Tigers have really lost a step defensively, as they’ve surrendered 78.4 ppg on 49.5 percent shooting during their 1-4 slump. They’ve also given up 80.3 ppg on 50 percent shooting on the road this season. (Michigan, meanwhile, gives up just 63.3 ppg overall, 60.8 ppg at neutral sites and 61.4 ppg in its last five.) It’s tough to ignore Purnell’s 0-4 SU record in the Tournament, including last year’s 75-69 one-and-done loss to Villanova as a six-point favorite. By comparison, Michigan coach John Beilein, who headed up West Virginia before coming to Ann Arbor prior to last season, is 6-4 in four trips to the Big Dance. Take the points with the underdog as Michigan should steal the outright win today and they will cover the spread with ease.

Michigan Wolverines (Medium Wager)

Western Kentucky vs Illinois (-4.5)

Illinois is a team that many are picking to lose this game in a huge upset. In all neutral court games Illinois is 4-1 ATS. Western Kentucky has been playing great basketball right now, but today they meet up with an Illinois squad who has been hearing they are one of the most likely upsets of the Big Dance. This just adds fuel to the fire for a team trying to prove they are legit and a threat. They also play in the Big Ten who I believe to be the most underrated conference in the tournament. This is just not enough points for Western Kentucky to dogs by here as Illinois wins this game by at least 8 points.

Illinois -4.5 (Medium Wager)

Minnesota (+4) vs Texas

The Golden Gophers are on a strange streak that fits into play for us right here. Currently they are on a run where they win one game and lose one game. This fits in well right here as there last game was a loss. Memphis plays great in all neutral court games going 2-1 ATS. Like the rest of the Big Ten in non-conference games they are 5-2 ATS. They are playing a Texas team today that couldn't even beat the Razorback. When the total is 120 to 129.5 they are 1-5 ATS, and over the last 3 seasons they are 1-6 when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Minnesota has the coach to take a team deep into the postseason and today they will get the job done against an overrated Texas squad.

Minnesota +4 (Small Wager)

[BrandonLaz]

Any other CK mafia bros can feel free to chime in as well.....I need guidance.....lol

I would put the other half of a unit on something else just to give you more chances to be able to wager tomorrow without a deposit.

[RoagBettor]

Early 3 Team/8 Pt Teaser:

Texas A&M +11
Memphis -12
Mem/CS Northridge under 139.5

[TheLemonDropKid]

Id go under in memphis lemon

GL

Thanks Shoe.......Under for the game or 1H only or 2H only?

[repski]

Booked
Butler +2
Memphis -11 1st H

[TheLemonDropKid]

I would put the other half of a unit on something else just to give you more chances to be able to wager tomorrow without a deposit.

Thanks Brandon......sounds like breaking it down into 2 separate plays is the way to go......I appreciate the feedback from you and Shoe.

[Dexter]

jeez - has memphis covered a first half this year?

[TheLemonDropKid]

jeez - has memphis covered a first half this year?

This sucks.......I watch you guys cash non-stop as I lay off your bets so I don't jinx you......as soon as I start tailing.....it goes right down the shitter.

[RoagBettor]

Memphis is a 2nd half team. I should know better but it was the right bet against a #15 seed.

[bumppinee]

memphis -11 2nd half

[peterpan19]

mem -10.5 2H

[TheLemonDropKid]

Memphis is a 2nd half team. I should know better but it was the right bet against a #15 seed.

So do ALL AGREE that a 2nd H play on Memphis is the right call???

[Dexter]

This sucks.......I watch you guys cash non-stop as I lay off your bets so I don't jinx you......as soon as I start tailing.....it goes right down the shitter.

its all your fault LDROP! haha

[peterpan19]

byu -5 2H