Recently I mentioned that I use a formula called impact values. I put everything I do in mechanical form and make subtle changes as the season progresses. Handicappers at the very top must adjust. Handicapping in the first 3 weeks of the season is totally different then the last 2 weeks. Play ig 9 point favorites or more at home and 6 point favorites away in the last 2 weeks are a sure way to go broke as many do not knowing the reasons why they are losing , while thinking as if those games were played earlier in the conference schedule. I break the season in 4 parts . I call this situational handicapping and have a now 50,000 game data base PROVING that one must adjust as the season go's on.
Here is in part how I come up with the numbers I do. It is callled impact values. Here is how it works. The goal is to find the exact odds what a suituation presents with the information that is known. duplicating information must be eliminated.
goal -to find the exact odds you should get attempting to find a women who smokes and drives a blue car.
There are 50 cars and 20 are blue
There are 25 women who drive cars
There are 10 women who smoke
What are the chances of finding a women who drives a blue car, who smokes in the next car you see.
First of all 40% of them are blue. Half the drivers are women so we are down to 20%. 40% of all women smoke so 40% of 20% is 8.
Chances are 16% .if you got 6-1 odds or more you will make a profit in the long run.
We put in a large amount of non duplicating information in football and basketball to come up with precise answers using this formula.It works and works well.
Lets extend this example somewhat more and put some SITUATIONAL handicapping to it. This time we make the bet at 7:00 in the morning. We find out the nearby school has nothing but female teachers and half of them smoke and half of them drive blue cars and you will find them driving them at about 7:00. We also discover that they are about the only one's on the road at that time. Our odds have moved up dramatically and the odds are probably about 3-1 we will win.
I use 6 difference pieces of non duplicating information in my data base and come up with my plays using this formula .I have simplified it and anyone usng it WILL NEVER HANDICAP DIFFERENTLY because they will win with no serious droughts.
Enjoy the information and if you work at it you can find what I have found and apply it the same way.
Cheers
Here is in part how I come up with the numbers I do. It is callled impact values. Here is how it works. The goal is to find the exact odds what a suituation presents with the information that is known. duplicating information must be eliminated.
goal -to find the exact odds you should get attempting to find a women who smokes and drives a blue car.
There are 50 cars and 20 are blue
There are 25 women who drive cars
There are 10 women who smoke
What are the chances of finding a women who drives a blue car, who smokes in the next car you see.
First of all 40% of them are blue. Half the drivers are women so we are down to 20%. 40% of all women smoke so 40% of 20% is 8.
Chances are 16% .if you got 6-1 odds or more you will make a profit in the long run.
We put in a large amount of non duplicating information in football and basketball to come up with precise answers using this formula.It works and works well.
Lets extend this example somewhat more and put some SITUATIONAL handicapping to it. This time we make the bet at 7:00 in the morning. We find out the nearby school has nothing but female teachers and half of them smoke and half of them drive blue cars and you will find them driving them at about 7:00. We also discover that they are about the only one's on the road at that time. Our odds have moved up dramatically and the odds are probably about 3-1 we will win.
I use 6 difference pieces of non duplicating information in my data base and come up with my plays using this formula .I have simplified it and anyone usng it WILL NEVER HANDICAP DIFFERENTLY because they will win with no serious droughts.
Enjoy the information and if you work at it you can find what I have found and apply it the same way.
Cheers