Can anyone tell me why CAL is only -6.5

Vonnegut · 02-19-09, 02:47 PM

Cause the book likes to **** with our heads.

Vonnegut · 02-19-09, 02:51 PM

Seriously though, only thing I can think of is the last game in California Oregon kept it close, lost by 7 and had way more control of the ball....71 attempts to 53, Cal shot 66.7 from the field, maybe they are thinking if Oregon can stay with Cal and Cal shoots a little closer to 50 they stay within 5. Then there is the home advantage but I dont think this means much here. Cal is without a doubt a better team, Oregon stinks defensively, but they can put it in the basket, and I would be careful here. Oregon keeps it within 5 or 6 or loses by 15.

Vonnegut · 02-19-09, 02:53 PM

On the other hand, Cal had 15 turnovers and I cant see THAT happening again.

gameday10 · 02-19-09, 02:54 PM

Not sure but here is my write-up on the game. Take it for what it worth.

Trends:
-California is 14-7 ATS overall
- 8-3 ATS as favorites
- 7-5 in conference
- 6-1 after scoring 80 points

-Oregon is 7-17 ATS overall
- 4-13 as underdog
- 3-8 at home
- 3-10 in conference

The first meeting between these 2 was won by Cal at home by 7. Oregon had 7 more offensive rebounds and 3 less turnovers which lead to 9 more shots being taken by Oregon. That is one reason this score was closer than it should have been. Cal is shooting 48% from the field the last 4 games and averaging 75.3ppg in those games. Oregon has only held there opponent to under 45% shooting 1 time the last 15 games and going 4-11 ATS in those 15. In those 11 loses ATS the spread, 9 of those they lost by double digits and 2 others by 9, which leaves only 4 games out of the last 15 where they have kept their opponent within single digits of them. Oregon has shot a horrible 37.7% avergage the last 4 games and shooting just 40.8% from the field at home in conference. And when Cal holds their opponent to <=42% from the field they are 7-0 ATS, so the chances are very much in Cal's favor. Oregon is allowing a horrible 52.7% shooting the last 4 games and 49.2% from the field at home conference play. When Cal shoots >=49% from the field they are 8-2 ATS. cal is averaging 68.4ppg in conference play and when Oregon allows their opponents to score >=68ppg they are 2-10 ATS. With these numbers, I believe Oregon has no chance the way their defense has played.

Dbldown11 · 02-19-09, 02:55 PM

Yeah could be a trap I guess, but I try not to think too hard about lines in that way. Obiously Oregon can cover this spread, but I think that CAL covers this spread well over 50% of the time

BiffTFinancial · 02-19-09, 03:03 PM

I think that Oregon is getting too much credit for past performance, particularly at home. Their HCA this year is not what it was in year's past, but I have a feeling those figures tend to have a lot of inertia and don't change as often as they should to track reality.

Vonnegut · 02-19-09, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

I think that Oregon is getting too much credit for past performance, particularly at home. Their HCA this year is not what it was in year's past, but I have a feeling those figures tend to have a lot of inertia and don't change as often as they should to track reality.

I tend to agree, I think the book is counting on bettors analyzing the last game for the results of this one, which is why the line is where it is instead of about +9 where I thought it would be. No way Cal turns over the ball 15 times again against this bad defense, I dont care what happened last time.

Vonnegut · 02-19-09, 03:07 PM

I may play Cal, I have talked myself into it...might squeeze it into some kind of small side parlay.