$$$ Testing 1H O/U SYSTEM $$$ (5-0 in 2 days)

[TheGambler]

damn, this looks like this guy knows what he is doing

[dlew2k]

6-1.

[ManBearPig]

I must be dumb Milton cuz I can't follow all those numbers as they don't make sense. Can you make sense of this?

[milton50]

I must be dumb Milton cuz I can't follow all those numbers as they don't make sense. Can you make sense of this?

Ya...we had a great day with the NCAA halves today cant take credit of course but today we went...6-1

Here is how the numbers break down...

I will use a game that has allready past as an example...the FSU/WF game played on February 14th.

1) Go find the last two meetings that these two teams against each other last...note in the meetings both of the home team needs to be the home team and the away team needs to be playing away. For example for the FSU game on 2/14/2009 we need to find the last two matchups where Wake was the HOME TEAM agains FSU...the last two matchups happend on 3/13/08 & 01/20/08.

The numbers for these two games are as follows.

GAME 1 -->
3/13/08
Final .....1...2.. T
FSU......31-39-70
WFRST..26-34-60
Linesmaker Game Total = 138

GAME 2 -->
01/20/08
Final......1...2...T
FSU......31-26-57
WFRST..28-46-74
Linesmaker Game Total = 144

2) Now add the 1st half points up and the second have pooints in each of the previous two matchups. For example...

GAME 1 -->
3/13/08
Final..... 1...2...T
FSU......31-39-70
WFRST..26-34-60

1st Half total = 57
2nd Half total = 73
Linesmaker Game total = 138

GAME 2 -->
01/20/08
Final..... 1....2...T
FSU.......31-26-57
WFRST...28-46-74

1st Half total = 59
2nd Half total = 72
Linesmaker Game total = 144

3) Now that we have added up the totals for the previous two matchups we will compare those two matchups with the line that the odds makers have given us for the days game...we are using the FSU @ WAKE game on 2/14/2009 as an example of how to do this.

1st Half
Game 1 ------> 57 pts
Game 2 ------> 59 pts

Todays 1st half total line --> 67pts

4) Now we see that the line that the odds makers have given us for the game played on 2/14/2009 is about 9 pts higher than both of the previous two matchups that the two teams have played at the same venue...it is irrelevant that the players might be different.

5) Seeing that the line the books have given us is so much higher then the previous two matchups this would qualify as an UNDER 67 play.

6) There are some important filters for this to work and for it to hit at its current 70-80% clip...

a. You must make sure that the game total given to you by the bookmakers for the game that you want to wager on is WITHIN 10pts of the previous two matchups linesmakers game totals...

For Example...
Linesmaker Game 1 total = 138
Linesmaker Game 2 total = 144
Linesmaker Game 2/14/2009 Total Line = 143

If this is the case...which in this situation it is then you can play the game under or over the first half line.

b. If the game total on 2/14/2009 was over 10 pts when compared to the previous two matchups for example 160 instead of 143...then the filter is this would be either only an over 67 1st half or a no play.

7) In past meetings no more than 4 points in totals difference in the first half totals of GM1 & GM2. (My understanding)

Hope that helps...

Ill create a new thread tomorrow when the plays are posted...(don't want to step on Lamb's toes, but if he doesn't want to post then I will.) there is a ton of clutter across the street and it is a pain to go through all the posts...he said that it would be fine to "share the wealth." So I dont see any harm in posting them here as well. There is another guy doing something similar with the NBA and is hitting at 69% right now on O/U after 80 some games capped... BOL.

~Milton

[gameday10]

So, when doing #6 part A) and it works out you play what you got in #5 correct? But if #6 A) is false/off then go to B) which it would have been take the OVER, but since you got the UNDER in #5 would you just lay off? My question is, if you have to go to #6 B would that not just be a No Play since #5 and #6 would disagree?

This looks promising, looks like that could be another filter added to this somehow to make it solid. Plays are solid now but would not mess with it until it fades away.

[yan7181]

is the expertcapper from the covers.com? i have seen someone selling nba systems on ebay the seller name also expertcapper, is the same guy?

[milton50]

So, when doing #6 part A) and it works out you play what you got in #5 correct? But if #6 A) is false/off then go to B) which it would have been take the OVER, but since you got the UNDER in #5 would you just lay off? My question is, if you have to go to #6 B would that not just be a No Play since #5 and #6 would disagree?

This looks promising, looks like that could be another filter added to this somehow to make it solid. Plays are solid now but would not mess with it until it fades away.

Yes that is exactly correct...now sometimes the Game total given by the lines makers will be 10+ pts higher than the game total for the previous two matchups...if that is the case we will generally go over the first half because the oddsmakers are expecting a higher scoring game...let me see if I can find an example...

Game Played on 2/14/2009
STANFORD VS CAL

Here is an example where the 148 game total showed an over play...

Game we are capping-->

Oddsmaker 1st Half Total = 70
Oddsmaker Game Total = 148

Game #1 --> 137-61-98
Game #2 --> 137-64-97

*The first number is the oddsmaker total of the game
*Second is halftime totals
*Last is the second half

Now the line is 70 first half even though they both went under the first two matchups. Be careful because the oddsmaker total is 10 points over the last 2 metings total so if your going to play that one would be over or a no play. Below you can find the results of the game...

Summary

Stanford at California
Final......1....2...T
STAN.....50-25-75
CAL.......36-46-82

Here we played the 1st half over 70 and it cashed...

Hope that helps.

~Milton

[gameday10]

Thanks for the explanation Milton. I guess I will sit back and let others do the statistics on these if they are going to be posted as I cap my own games and spend much of the time doing that and not sure if I can squeeze this into it, unless on small card fridays.

[seanjohn007]

thanks milton for clearing it all up, i was also confused the first time i saw it. is that the only filter that he uses? and lambo would you mind sharing what your added filter is? thanks again to both of you for helping us all out

[gameday10]

I seen the original poster here used units. Is there a way to tell if one play is slightly better than the other to make it a better play? Any points margins or anything?

[ManBearPig]

That makes a little more sense so let's see if i got this right.

Based on 1-5 ->
If 6A IS TRUE THEN
Play Result from #5
ELSE
6B -- total more than 10 over both totals
play opposite result from 5 or No Play
6B -- total more than 10 under both totals
play opposite result from 5 or No Play
6B -- total more than/less than 10 for only 1 total
???
Couple clarifications:

#4 - It looks like you take an avg of GM1 and GM2 and in this case it was 9pts difference. Is there a certain number that you use a cutoff or as long as its greater than the avg by at least 1 you go the over and less than by at least one you go the under.

#6a - a) What if it was under by > 10? Play the under from #5 or no play?
b) Total has to be within 10 on both totals either over or under...i.e (G1 & GM2) not (GM1 or GM2)
EX. Total 143 143
GM1 138 NOT 135
GM2 143 160

Sorry if confusing questions but just trying to see all angles here. This is a bomb ass system.

[milton50]

I seen the original poster here used units. Is there a way to tell if one play is slightly better than the other to make it a better play? Any points margins or anything?

Not that I know of...this is the only filter that he uses to my knowledge. As far as units...I flat bet everything, but that is what I always due. The originator of the system doesn't ever place units on these to my knowledge so the units idea must be from one of the posters here.

~Milton

[milton50]

I hope that you can see the answers to your questions below...

Based on 1-5 ->
If 6A IS TRUE THEN
Play Result from #5
ELSE
6B -- total more than 10 over both totals
play opposite result from 5 or No Play
6B -- total more than 10 under both totals
play opposite result from 5 or No Play
6B -- total more than/less than 10 for only 1 total
???
Couple clarifications:

#4 - It looks like you take an avg of GM1 and GM2 and in this case it was 9pts difference. Is there a certain number that you use a cutoff or as long as its greater than the avg by at least 1 you go the over and less than by at least one you go the under.

Yes 10

#6a - a) What if it was under by > 10? Play the under from #5 or no play?

No Play or under...

b) Total has to be within 10 on both totals either over or under...i.e (G1 & GM2) not (GM1 or GM2)
EX. Total 143 143
GM1 138 NOT 135
GM2 143 160

Right G1 & G2

Sorry if confusing questions but just trying to see all angles here. This is a bomb ass system.

***I thing I forgot and just remembered...important filter...****
In past meetings no more than 4 points in totals diffrence.

~Milton

[gameday10]

***I thing I forgot and just remembered...important filter...****
In past meetings no more than 4 points in totals diffrence.

~Milton

Would this not cancel out your first example? First example both games were greater than 4 points in the totals

[seanjohn007]

***I thing I forgot and just remembered...important filter...****
In past meetings no more than 4 points in totals diffrence.

~Milton

now that explains why there arent always that many plays. so if the first two meetings the 1h totals were 60 and 64 then it is a play, and you can carry on with the other filters. but if the totals are 60 and 65 then it doesnt qualify and you throw the game away, correct?

i noticed on his personal thread that he plays some second half plays. does this system work the same way for second halfs? or is there and extra filter for blowouts or something. thanks again milton

[seanjohn007]

Would this not cancel out your first example? First example both games were greater than 4 points in the totals

no based on my understanding, and milton can correct me if im wrong. you go based on the two first half totals, in the two matchups in his first example the half time totals were 57 and 59. thats only a two point difference, which does qualify.

[milton50]

no based on my understanding, and milton can correct me if im wrong. you go based on the two first half totals, in the two matchups in his first example the half time totals were 57 and 59. thats only a two point difference, which does qualify.

Guys...you have me here...I am just re-posting in a semi-organized fashion what I have gathered from reading the posts and following along for the last week. Here is word for word the comment about the 4 points post.

the past meetings no more than 4 points in totals diffrence
heres an 8 oclock game
67
STJ 128-63-80
Mar 127-55-87
143

play over 67.5 now once again the reason i play over is the total of the game today is 10 points over the 2 other rpevious meetings totals of 128, 127

the difffrence is 15 points now add 7 points onto 63 making it an over play of 70

So I hope that maybe you can understand what he is trying to say there...

~Milton

[milton50]

no based on my understanding, and milton can correct me if im wrong. you go based on the two first half totals, in the two matchups in his first example the half time totals were 57 and 59. thats only a two point difference, which does qualify.

This is my understanding as well...

~Milton

[milton50]

now that explains why there arent always that many plays. so if the first two meetings the 1h totals were 60 and 64 then it is a play, and you can carry on with the other filters. but if the totals are 60 and 65 then it doesnt qualify and you throw the game away, correct?

i noticed on his personal thread that he plays some second half plays. does this system work the same way for second halfs? or is there and extra filter for blowouts or something. thanks again milton

I am not sure about the second half stuff yet...I am still trying to learn and get dialed in the first half stuff in case he decided to stop posting.

~Milton

[dlew2k]

with that kind of commmotion going on over there and with some of the crazy posting, he will stop. AT least I would. Thanks milton50 for posting the info .

[thegenix]

milton are you going to be posting the plays you figured out for today? I am also trying to use this system and wanted to use you as a check.

[milton50]

milton are you going to be posting the plays you figured out for today? I am also trying to use this system and wanted to use you as a check.

Yes, I think that I will start a new thread with instructions at the top in a couple of hours...and then we can track the system as it progresses and make filters as needed.

~Milton

[007Fatty]

Thanks alot milton.

[osbornecm]

I am trying to get this right...so I looked at the Princeton/Harvard game...the two first half totals from the last two games IN Princeton was 63 and 62...The overall game line was 126 and 119.

For tonight's game, the 1H o/u is 56.5 and for the overall game it's 122...so this game would be an over in the 1H correct?

[milton50]

I am trying to get this right...so I looked at the Princeton/Harvard game...the two first half totals from the last two games IN Princeton was 63 and 62...The overall game line was 126 and 119.

For tonight's game, the 1H o/u is 56.5 and for the overall game it's 122...so this game would be an over in the 1H correct?

Yes...I posted the leans for today here...nothing will be official until about 7pm EST...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-handicapping/148247-ncaa-1st-half-o-u.html

~Milton

[thegenix]

Yes, I think that I will start a new thread with instructions at the top in a couple of hours...and then we can track the system as it progresses and make filters as needed.

~Milton

Awesome idea. Looking forward to this.