Early leans for tuesday

[hoop guru]

Mich st/purdue over 128.5
setan hall/marquette under 72 1st half
Ohio +3.5 1st half
pennyslvania +1.5 1st half
east carolina +4.5 1st half
vanderbilt +1 1st half

[hoop guru]

Vanderbilt +1/2 (1st half)
-This maybe the best play in college basketball tommorrow. Kentucky defeated vanderbilt earlier this season by a score of 70-60. Vanderbilt was without their leading scorer, Center AJ Ogilvey (14.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg), in that game. In the rematch, Kentucky will probably be without their inside threat Patrick Patterson (17.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg). I like vanderbilt especially if patterson does not play which will make Kentucky just a perimeter shooting team. Meeks was the only wildcat in double figures against arkansas. Its tough to win back to back road games in the SEC.

[hoop guru]

Getting East Carolina +4.5 points 1st half is a steal. Southern Miss is not a good team at all, losing their last 5 in a row. East carolina has won 3 of the last 4 games and is coming off a OT victory over Rice 91-88. Rice defeated Southern Miss last week by 16. Southern Miss just played a game against memphis and were very competitive in the first half (down 3 at halftime) and were up one point in the 2nd half. Than memphis went a crazy run to win the game by 25 points. Southern Miss does not have much depth on the bench and its taking its toll as southern miss is on a 5 game losing streak. On the season, southern miss has not done well as a home favorite in the first half.

Prediction: East Carolina will be tied with Southern miss at the half

[eatdust11]

Guru.. interesting thoughts... unfortunately I only took one of your bets today and it was the Charleston 1st half under.. ouch....

I think the East Carolina and Southern Miss game is a good over actually... east carolina can score the basketball quite well.

Like the seton hall and marquette under, but I worry that maryland and clemson could be a helter skelter fast paced game.

[seanjohn007]

just took a quick look at the kent state game. looks like its got a good shot at going under. take a look and let me know what you think.

[hoop guru]

just took a quick look at the kent state game. looks like its got a good shot at going under. take a look and let me know what you think.

I do not like the under 61.5 at the half. I was looking the game log of a game between kent and ohio from a game on January 13th. Even though it was a low scoring first half (30-26 kent), both teams shot the basketball quickly usually within 20 seconds. This was a low scoring half thanks to some very poor shooting by both teams. In the 2nd half, both teams shot the ball really good and they combined to score 80 points. The way these two teams play(shooting quickly within the shot clock), its risky taking the under 61.5 in the first half. When taking the under, you like to see teams play good defense causing shot clock violations. In the first half of that game there were no shot clock violations. On unders, you also like to see the milking of the clock.

I would stay away from the under 61.5 1st half.

[seanjohn007]

thanks for the input. im deffinetly going to look into it more then before i make a play on it. i love your marquette under i just finished looking at that game. where do you get game logs for previous games?

[hoop guru]

I go to espn and look at the college basketball section and schedule for a particular team.

[hoop guru]

I took a look at the marquette game log for a game on Jan 8, 2008. Setan Hall really likes to slow the down the tempo of the game. That is what they did in this game on Jan 8. Setan Hall does not not for the quick shot and instead likes to milk the shot clock. Setan halll has to slow down the game if it is going to pull off an upset. Marquette plays pretty good defense too. I definitely like the under 71.5 at the half which is a such high number.

[seanjohn007]

thanks i didnt know espn kept those. maybe you can help me, theres a couple of stats ive been trying to find without any success. possessions per game, points per possession, scores through the first ten minutes(my book lets me bet o/u first ten mins for some games) and a site that breaks down the halfs, kinda like a box for each half. tthis way i can find which teams play slow and which teams play better for the first half and who gets in foul trouble early.

[hoop guru]

Guru.. interesting thoughts... unfortunately I only took one of your bets today and it was the Charleston 1st half under.. ouch....

I think the East Carolina and Southern Miss game is a good over actually... east carolina can score the basketball quite well.

Like the seton hall and marquette under, but I worry that maryland and clemson could be a helter skelter fast paced game.

That Charleson game messed me up to. I would have won a lot more money yesterday if it had not been for that layup. I consider it took a miracle for it to go over 72.5. I would never take the over on such a high over/under. It would not make much sense. You can take unders on high over/unders like this one and win. That is why I am taking the marquette game to go under at the half. Setan Hall will slow down the game by shooting late in the shot clock while Marquette will play good defense. I do not epect a shootout in this game. The Charleston game had the highest total at halftime and it barely went over. Today, I am going to take the highest over/under and go with the under (marquette under 71.5 1st half). I was surprised to see that total was that high for the half and the game. I look for consistency today by taking the under 71.5 and winning today.

[hoop guru]

thanks i didnt know espn kept those. maybe you can help me, theres a couple of stats ive been trying to find without any success. possessions per game, points per possession, scores through the first ten minutes(my book lets me bet o/u first ten mins for some games) and a site that breaks down the halfs, kinda like a box for each half. tthis way i can find which teams play slow and which teams play better for the first half and who gets in foul trouble early.

I am not aware if there are any sites that can break down games like that.

[BiffTFinancial]

thanks i didnt know espn kept those. maybe you can help me, theres a couple of stats ive been trying to find without any success. possessions per game, points per possession, scores through the first ten minutes(my book lets me bet o/u first ten mins for some games) and a site that breaks down the halfs, kinda like a box for each half. tthis way i can find which teams play slow and which teams play better for the first half and who gets in foul trouble early.

don't know of anything like that, but would love to find it. fwiw, i think that shots/game (both own and opposition), with a nod to FTM/FTM/game 3PTM/3PTA/game (both own and opposition), provides a decent proxy for this on an overall game basis that is easy to find [eg, the SBR matchup reports]. you can tell a lot about style of play from those numbers. teams that slow it down, play good defense and don't foul much or draw many fouls are ideal for 1H unders.

[seanjohn007]

ok thanks anyways guys. i dont really get why no sports sites dont have these things, its not like their extremely unknown stats. i just think being able to break everything down by half and getting possessions stats can make handicapping much easier. i wish i knew how to make a computer program that could keep stats like that, but i just dont know enough about computers or excel lol

[Ticon18]

how about Clemson/Maryland over 68 for 1st half?

[BiffTFinancial]

setan hall/marquette under 72 1st half (line moved up a 1/2 point)
pennyslvania +1.5
east carolina +4.5 1st half
vanderbilt +1 1st half (line moved up a 1/2 point)

OK, I've run all my system forecasts for the day, and here are my thoughts:
- like the seton hall/marquette 1H under a lot b/c it's such a high number [and these teams have play low-scoring 1Hs against each other]. this is probably my favorite of your picks, and i wouldn't be surprised if there's another half-point to be had here over course of the day.
- like the maryland/clemson 1H under too, particularly in this spot. should be a defensive 1H. vazquez is good, but not good enough to make clemson pay for the press with layups at clemson the way that lawson did at UNC. clemson much better at not giving easy bucket in press at home.
- like ECU +4.5 1H a lot, almost as much as marq 1H under. USM hasn't had many 5 point leads at half this year, even at home, and is coming off a pasting by memphis in the 2H. biggest reservation here is that ECU yields almost 40 ppg 1H on the road, but USM isn't the type of team that can take advantage. like ECU +8.5 for game too. USM just sucks.
- like vandy 1H +1 with patterson out, but don't love it simply b/c vandy is pretty bad and simply can't shoot. that said, i think they'll be leading at half at home tonight.
- ambivalent on penn 1H +1.5. princeton has played solid 1H defense at home, but penn has always played good 1Hs against them. my concern is that, b/c this is an off year for penn, those numbers may not be a good indicator of what happens tonight.
- didn't like NM/BYU 1H under as much b/c they've played some high-scoring 1Hs plus revenge in favor of home BYU, but I can see that you've taken that one down. i think that's a good call to make that a no-play.

[hoop guru]

I really like Ohio +3.5 1st half. I look for Ohio to play well tonite against Kent. Kent is on a 6 game winning streak and they may even lose this game. This is going to be my big money play tonite. I will put a grand on Ohio +3.5 at the half.

[BiffTFinancial]

how about Clemson/Maryland over 68 for 1st half?

if anything, i like the 1H under. clemson has some serious under trends at home. they throttle teams defensively with the press, and unlike on the road, they don't give up many easy buckets off the press-break at home. coming off the OT loss at UVA sunday giving up 80+, they're like to be defensive-minded, esp in the 1H. also, maryland doesn't have the ammo to make clemson pay for pressing like UNC or Wake does.

[hoop guru]

OK, I've run all my system forecasts for the day, and here are my thoughts:
- like the seton hall/marquette 1H under a lot b/c it's such a high number [and these teams have play low-scoring 1Hs against each other]. this is probably my favorite of your picks, and i wouldn't be surprised if there's another half-point to be had here over course of the day.
- like the maryland/clemson 1H under too, particularly in this spot. should be a defensive 1H. vazquez is good, but not good enough to make clemson pay for the press with layups at clemson the way that lawson did at UNC. clemson much better at not giving easy bucket in press at home.
- like ECU +4.5 1H a lot, almost as much as marq 1H under. USM hasn't had many 5 point leads at half this year, even at home, and is coming off a pasting by memphis in the 2H. biggest reservation here is that ECU yields almost 40 ppg 1H on the road, but USM isn't the type of team that can take advantage. like ECU +8.5 for game too. USM just sucks.
- like vandy 1H +1 with patterson out, but don't love it simply b/c vandy is pretty bad and simply can't shoot. that said, i think they'll be leading at half at home tonight.
- ambivalent on penn 1H +1.5. princeton has played solid 1H defense at home, but penn has always played good 1Hs against them. my concern is that, b/c this is an off year for penn, those numbers may not be a good indicator of what happens tonight.
- didn't like NM/BYU 1H under as much b/c they've played some high-scoring 1Hs plus revenge in favor of home BYU, but I can see that you've taken that one down. i think that's a good call to make that a no-play.

What about Ohio +3.5 1st half

[BiffTFinancial]

I really like Ohio +3.5 1st half. I look for Ohio to play well tonite against Kent. Kent is on a 6 game winning streak and they may even lose this game. This is going to be my big money play tonite. I will put a grand on Ohio +3.5 at the half.

i don't love it. kent has been pretty good 1H during this streak and OU is bad on the road. However, i think that the streak is probably getting you some value in this line. i can't get a read on OU right now, primarily b/c they haven't played anyone decent in february [L4 against toledo, EMU, WMU, N ILL]. then again, 5 of the 6 in kent's streak were against those same 4 cellar dwellers and crappy CMU, and before the streak, they didn't have many halftime leads.

am going to think a little further on this one, but the fact that it's your big play of the night means that it will almost certainly find its way onto my card.

[hoop guru]

I like ohio is that they have nothing to lose in this game. They are not going to catch buffalo with a victory tonite. Instead, they are trying improve on how they play a game of basketball. Of course, Ohio will try hard to win tonite. I think there is more pressure on kent to win 20 games this season and they need 6 more wins to do that. Earlier this season, ohio defeated kent 61-55. Ohio should play with confidence.

[GreatDanes52]

So what's your favorites today Hoop and Biff?... I had a really bad weekend so I'm trying to play less plays more money to get back to where I was at. I don't have to settle up with my local for a week so I'm trying to have a good one. Anyway my favorite play so far is looking the Seton Hall under first half. Seton Hall has to slow this one down to keep it close. So if it's close I see it going under. On the other hand Marquette might blow this one open and it will still go under because of Marquette's defense.

[hoop guru]

1. Ohio +3.5 1st half (favorite pick)
2. setan hall under 72
3. east carolina +4.5

[t-bone]

Keep up the good work guru, this is one of the top threads going

[hoop guru]

I know its early, 6-3 ohio with 1433 left in the first half

[hoop guru]

Biff you are right about maryland staying under 68

[hoop guru]

12-5 ohio with 1257 left. Look good

[Euphoria38]

12-5 Ohio 12:29 mark !

[Euphoria38]

Its on Fox Sports Ohio if any of you have DTV Channel 660. 14-5 Ohio 12:11

[hoop guru]

Its on Fox Sports Ohio if any of you have DTV Channel 660. 14-5 Ohio 12:11

good looking out.

[Euphoria38]

16-7 11:08 with a turnover on kent state.

[hoop guru]

Purdue is the play for the 2nd half. Watch for mich st to be down at the end and will start fouling. THis is how purdue will win the game.

[hoop guru]

17-10 ohio with 937 left

[hoop guru]

17-13 ohio

[Euphoria38]

17-13 8:42, 30 sec timeout Ohio