Texas at A & M

PittChicGambles · 02-16-09, 02:25 PM

I like texas as well...

Ticon18 · 02-16-09, 02:28 PM

i love Texas. too much talent and will be pissed. line is now -1.5 not bad

MrMonkey · 02-16-09, 02:35 PM

Guys if I hadn't seen Texas play a few times this year I would agree at 1.5- take them! But Texas is definitely missing something this year? Abrams seems to be in a season long underachiever mode.

Took A&M, play well at home, 3 tough losses, 3-7 conf. IMO not indicative of how good they are? Hopefully Texas is thinking or worried about Okla? Good luck!

MrMonkey

Hells Kitchen · 02-16-09, 02:39 PM

What in the hell are u gents looking at!

In the past 5 games /texas has lost to K State at home
lost to Mizzou at home
lost to that "powerhouse" Nebraska
Barely beat Ok St.
And needed OT to beat pathetic Colorodo

Its your money gents.
And no this is not a talented team.

I am on A+M

PittChicGambles · 02-16-09, 02:42 PM

im no gent

Willie Bee · 02-16-09, 02:45 PM

Was looking at opening lines last night. Like teasing Texas and Pitt tonight...But I'll have on my maroon and pulling for my Fightin' Texas Aggies nontheless

Lets_Get_Money · 02-16-09, 02:49 PM

Stay Away from this

PittChicGambles · 02-16-09, 02:51 PM

I like Texas...

You see for Texas A&M they have struggled big time in league play as they have lost their last three games overall and 7 of their last 10 games, including an 11 point loss in Austin. Meanwhile, for Texas after losing three straight games they have rebounded to win the last two games as they head into tonight having won 3 of the last 4 series meetings.

MicGan · 02-16-09, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by Hells Kitchen

What in the hell are u gents looking at!

In the past 5 games /texas has lost to K State at home
lost to Mizzou at home
lost to that "powerhouse" Nebraska
Barely beat Ok St.
And needed OT to beat pathetic Colorodo

Its your money gents.
And no this is not a talented team.

I am on A+M

Wow ..... Who did Texas A&M beat? The GREAT Butler, T Tech and OKST???? I guess they are the true power house?

MrMonkey · 02-16-09, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

Was looking at opening lines last night. Like teasing Texas and Pitt tonight...But I'll have on my maroon and pulling for my Fightin' Texas Aggies nontheless

"Certainly" Willie can't find 2 other games, should I make A&M a 3X bet or just play conservative?

MrMonkey

PittChicGambles · 02-16-09, 02:53 PM

Also, the favorite is 4-1 ATS the last five games between these two teams

curious · 02-16-09, 02:59 PM

I hate going against Texas but my prediction model shows that the line should be Texas A&M -190 so at +120 there is a little value here.

I don't think Texas has a big edge here but on general principle I can understand if some people like Texas here.

edoggdriveby · 02-16-09, 03:05 PM

Texas has taken me with the Missouri and Arkansas games earlier this year, but nevertheless i'm taking them for the 3rd time. Abrams is too good when he is on.

They have been blowing large leads in their past games, but they have the horses to get those leads.

And Hells Kitchen, you say they barely beat Ok St.? They blew them out all game long. Ok St. was down 15+ basically all second half

Willie Bee · 02-16-09, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by MrMonkey

"Certainly" Willie can't find 2 other games, should I make A&M a 3X bet or just play conservative?

MrMonkey

Monkey, I just thought teasing those two (UT, Pitt) would be a good play, maybe not. I've never played a teaser in my life. I made a nice wad fading A&M's football schedule, hate playing on my former school for some reason.

MrMonkey · 02-16-09, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

Monkey, I just thought teasing those two (UT, Pitt) would be a good play, maybe not. I've never played a teaser in my life. I made a nice wad fading A&M's football schedule, hate playing on my former school for some reason.

Yea better play conservative, don't want to be busted before the tourney!

MrMonkey

Russell · 02-16-09, 04:00 PM

a&m at home is enough for the overrated horns

curious · 02-16-09, 04:04 PM

Teaser

Teaser: Basketball 5, 5½ 7 Point Teaser
Selection : 1 NCAA Basketball for Game
Connecticut 16-February-2009 4:00 PM PST
Spread +2.5 for Game

Selection : 2 NCAA Basketball for Game
Louisiana Tech 16-February-2009 6:00 PM PST
Spread +14 for Game

Selection : 3 NCAA Basketball for Game
Texas A&M 16-February-2009 6:00 PM PST
Spread +6.5 for Game

Selection : 4 NCAA Basketball for Game
Loyola Maryland 16-February-2009 4:00 PM PST
Spread -1 for Game

Selection : 5 NCAA Basketball for Game
Siena 16-February-2009 4:30 PM PST
Spread +0.5 for Game

Selection : 6 NCAA Basketball for Game
Saint Peter's 16-February-2009 5:00 PM PST
Spread +2.5 for Game

Payout Odds 5 to 1

TPowell · 02-16-09, 04:12 PM

I'm on A&M. Texas just isnt that great of a team. That Maui game between them and ND says a lot. Notre Dame and Texas were just flat out overrated. I like A&M and I dont buy Texas "wanting it more"

kipper32 · 02-16-09, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by curious

Teaser: Basketball 5, 5½ 7 Point Teaser
Selection : 1 NCAA Basketball for Game
Connecticut 16-February-2009 4:00 PM PST
Spread +2.5 for Game

Selection : 2 NCAA Basketball for Game
Louisiana Tech 16-February-2009 6:00 PM PST
Spread +14 for Game

Selection : 3 NCAA Basketball for Game
Texas A&M 16-February-2009 6:00 PM PST
Spread +6.5 for Game

Selection : 4 NCAA Basketball for Game
Loyola Maryland 16-February-2009 4:00 PM PST
Spread -1 for Game

Selection : 5 NCAA Basketball for Game
Siena 16-February-2009 4:30 PM PST
Spread +0.5 for Game

Selection : 6 NCAA Basketball for Game
Saint Peter's 16-February-2009 5:00 PM PST
Spread +2.5 for Game

Payout Odds 5 to 1

on you with that, i respect your picks so why not?

just a small play

curious · 02-16-09, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by kipper32

on you with that, i respect your picks so why not?

just a small play

Its just for fun. Only $5,000 bet to win $25,000.

(Just kidding)

$50 to win $250

CaptainFurFace · 02-16-09, 05:40 PM

Texas has lost the past 4 years at A&M. Take A&M with the points, in fact buy the half. A&M +2.

007Fatty · 02-16-09, 05:48 PM

i am going texas -1.5 just cuz i feel lucky today=)

BiffTFinancial · 02-16-09, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by 007Fatty

i am going texas -1.5 just cuz i feel lucky today=)

that's b/c you cleaned your book out on soccer today, right? BOL tonight - can't ride with you on this one cuz i got A&M 1H and game, but BOL just the same.

sqvirrel · 02-16-09, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by curious

I hate going against Texas but my prediction model shows that the line should be Texas A&M -190 so at +120 there is a little value here.

I don't think Texas has a big edge here but on general principle I can understand if some people like Texas here.

That's odd. From what I've read we look at similar parameters when capping but my spreadsheet spit out exactly the opposite. I wonder where we see things differently. I'm probably off since it seems like A&M is the preferred sharp play. On Tx -125 and happy with it.

TPowell · 02-16-09, 05:59 PM

actually the home team has won straight up since like 2005 I believe

curious · 02-16-09, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by sqvirrel

That's odd. From what I've read we look at similar parameters when capping but my spreadsheet spit out exactly the opposite. I wonder where we see things differently. I'm probably off since it seems like A&M is the preferred sharp play. On Tx -125 and happy with it.

Do you use adjusted pythag adjusted for strength of schedule and do you adjust for home court advantage?

sqvirrel · 02-16-09, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by curious

Do you use adjusted pythag adjusted for strength of schedule and do you adjust for home court advantage?

Yeah, I sure do. Like I said, I'm a bit surprised. We must weight things quite a bit differently. Raw pythag/log5 has Texas at 75% with a superior SOS. I make it 64% after adjustments. No matter, if I win, I win, lose, lose. I'm successful with my filters and caps so I'm not worried.

I probably would have avoided the game if I had noticed it was a reverse line move .

curious · 02-16-09, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by sqvirrel

Yeah, I sure do. Like I said, I'm a bit surprised. We must weight things quite a bit differently. Raw pythag/log5 has Texas at 75% with a superior SOS. I make it 64% after adjustments. No matter, if I win, I win, lose, lose. I'm successful with my filters and caps so I'm not worried.

I probably would have avoided the game if I had noticed it was a reverse line move .

I see the problem. You aren't comparing the predicted line to the actual line and taking the best value. You are just using the highest percentage. I don't roll that way.

PerfecTrader · 02-16-09, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by Gance9

Iliek Texas -2, they have too much talent, any takers?

UT 1H -1
UT -1
Over 130.5

I buy points like woah

sqvirrel · 02-16-09, 09:24 PM

Originally posted by curious

I see the problem. You aren't comparing the predicted line to the actual line and taking the best value. You are just using the highest percentage. I don't roll that way.

Not really sure what you mean. I run the numbers without looking at Vegas at all. Once I have my fair line I line it up against the books and if something favorable pops out I cap the game. Four mathematical plays today, I disqualified two, played two.

I guess I'm not sure what second value you are considering.

PerfecTrader · 02-16-09, 09:29 PM

That's some sophisticated shiaot. My method is slightly different in that I grab a beer, smoke a bowl, and bet on the team who's Mascots' first name is closer to S. I wouldn't mind trying what yall got going on though, sounds pretty cool.

curious · 02-16-09, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by sqvirrel

Not really sure what you mean. I run the numbers without looking at Vegas at all. Once I have my fair line I line it up against the books and if something favorable pops out I cap the game. Four mathematical plays today, I disqualified two, played two.

I guess I'm not sure what second value you are considering.

<sigh>

I calculate what the line should be. Then I compare that to what the line actually is. If (actual line - calculated line) > 0 then I have a play.

For example, I calculated a line of -220 for Siena. The actual line was -175. Actual line - calculated line = -175 - - 220 = +45. So, Siena was the play.

curious · 02-16-09, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by PerfecTrader

That's some sophisticated shiaot. My method is slightly different in that I grab a beer, smoke a bowl, and bet on the team who's Mascots' first name is closer to S. I wouldn't mind trying what yall got going on though, sounds pretty cool.

Sometimes I find naked vids of the teams' cheerleaders and bet on the team that has the hottest naked cheerleaders.

sqvirrel · 02-16-09, 09:53 PM

[quote=curious;1538592]<sigh>

I calculate what the line should be. Then I compare that to what the line actually is. If (actual line - calculated line) > 0 then I have a play.

That's no different that what I do. I made Texas 64% and Vegas had them at 56%. What I don't get is how we could use similar methods and arrive at such different fair lines. You capped Texas at something like 35%. No matter, it was just surprising.