Greetings & Salutations. Getting this all prepped for tomorrow!
Back for another year of the Madness and its grind. Sticking to the 2nd half plays that I have made a little money off of for a couple years now. It's not full proof, but it's worked well for me over the long haul. We'll have peaks & valleys like anything you gamble on. The key is flat betting, these are all going to be to win one unit.
I really feel in tune with what I learned at the casino this past week that paid dividends that yielded dividends:
Focus. Patience. KWTQ - "Know When To Quit" ... all three equally important to me.
I will always try to focus on games as they head towards the half that look as if they could fall heavily towards an Under or Over play. Have to have the patience to pass on games if they don't fall into what I am looking for as far as an edge good enough to play. And always KWTQ. Don't play games just because they are on the board late and there is nothing else if they suck shit from the perspective of these plays. I've failed all these miserably at-times, but seeing things work out in front of your face has an impact when you follow f-ing logical directions from yourself!
As I did the last couple years, I outlined the basics of how this formula works that I use. Again, there is a "gut feeling" aspect to this to, so just because it might fall within the #s, does not mean I will play a game.
POINTS POSSESSION FORMULA
What I do at half time for the games I look at is calculate the total # of possessions combined from both teams in the 1st half. The formula is as follows:Total Field Goal Attempts - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + (0.44 x Total Free Throw Attempts)
After getting that number, I usually add five to that number to simulate the probable # of 2nd half possessions. The five is to account for extra fouling at the end, etc. Obviously in blowout situations, you want to remember that you may not get these extra possessions due to a lack of FTs or you may get them if the game is just foul heavy to begin with. Always important to look at those stats and also to know how foul prone your teams are to begin with. A useful site for this:
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...fouls-category
So, now we've got our number to look at and compare to the 2nd half total that is posted - this is generally what I look at.
If that 2nd half total is well below the # of expected possessions, then the OVER is something to consider.
Likewise, if the 2nd half total is well above the # of possessions, then the UNDER is something to consider.
In both cases, I look at the 1st half total vs. the # of 1st half possessions to see what the point per possession ratio was. For OVERs, you want it to be better than 1:1 or better than a point per possession which would indicate that a lot of points can be scored again. For UNDERs, you want it to be lower than 1:1 which would indicate a lower scoring half could be on tap. In both cases, looking at FTs, tempo (FGAs) and the # of 1st half fouls is something I look at before making a final decision.
The final decision for me is finding the games that have the biggest differences between the 2nd half total and the # of expected possessions. For example, if a 2nd half total is set @ 72 and the # of expected possessions is in the upper 70s with the 1st half points per possession being better than 1:1 ... OVER is a definite try. Vice versa, if a 2nd half total is set @ 80 and the expected # of possessions is in the lower 70s with the 1st half points per possession being right around 1:1 or less ... UNDER is a try.
Just because the points per possession is over 1:1 in a half doesn't mean I will play an over and just because it's under 1:1 doesn't mean I will play an under. I try to look at all this and make a decision, so there is no one set thing that determines a play for me. I attempt to look at some games as they get close to half time that I think are going to be games that feature a good points per possession ratio either favoring the OVER or UNDER to cut down on the # of games I will look at overall. So in the end, it's an overview of all of this and then hoping to make a good choice. I always answer questions about these if you ask and all of this should sum it up for you - that the formula is my starting point with the gut feeling for the game being the ultimate deciding factor.
Here's last season's thread for anyone who wants to look at anything. It lets you see the peaks and valleys, etc.
Back for another year of the Madness and its grind. Sticking to the 2nd half plays that I have made a little money off of for a couple years now. It's not full proof, but it's worked well for me over the long haul. We'll have peaks & valleys like anything you gamble on. The key is flat betting, these are all going to be to win one unit.
I really feel in tune with what I learned at the casino this past week that paid dividends that yielded dividends:
Focus. Patience. KWTQ - "Know When To Quit" ... all three equally important to me.
I will always try to focus on games as they head towards the half that look as if they could fall heavily towards an Under or Over play. Have to have the patience to pass on games if they don't fall into what I am looking for as far as an edge good enough to play. And always KWTQ. Don't play games just because they are on the board late and there is nothing else if they suck shit from the perspective of these plays. I've failed all these miserably at-times, but seeing things work out in front of your face has an impact when you follow f-ing logical directions from yourself!
As I did the last couple years, I outlined the basics of how this formula works that I use. Again, there is a "gut feeling" aspect to this to, so just because it might fall within the #s, does not mean I will play a game.
POINTS POSSESSION FORMULA
What I do at half time for the games I look at is calculate the total # of possessions combined from both teams in the 1st half. The formula is as follows:Total Field Goal Attempts - Offensive Rebounds + Turnovers + (0.44 x Total Free Throw Attempts)
After getting that number, I usually add five to that number to simulate the probable # of 2nd half possessions. The five is to account for extra fouling at the end, etc. Obviously in blowout situations, you want to remember that you may not get these extra possessions due to a lack of FTs or you may get them if the game is just foul heavy to begin with. Always important to look at those stats and also to know how foul prone your teams are to begin with. A useful site for this:
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bas...fouls-category
So, now we've got our number to look at and compare to the 2nd half total that is posted - this is generally what I look at.
If that 2nd half total is well below the # of expected possessions, then the OVER is something to consider.
Likewise, if the 2nd half total is well above the # of possessions, then the UNDER is something to consider.
In both cases, I look at the 1st half total vs. the # of 1st half possessions to see what the point per possession ratio was. For OVERs, you want it to be better than 1:1 or better than a point per possession which would indicate that a lot of points can be scored again. For UNDERs, you want it to be lower than 1:1 which would indicate a lower scoring half could be on tap. In both cases, looking at FTs, tempo (FGAs) and the # of 1st half fouls is something I look at before making a final decision.
The final decision for me is finding the games that have the biggest differences between the 2nd half total and the # of expected possessions. For example, if a 2nd half total is set @ 72 and the # of expected possessions is in the upper 70s with the 1st half points per possession being better than 1:1 ... OVER is a definite try. Vice versa, if a 2nd half total is set @ 80 and the expected # of possessions is in the lower 70s with the 1st half points per possession being right around 1:1 or less ... UNDER is a try.
Just because the points per possession is over 1:1 in a half doesn't mean I will play an over and just because it's under 1:1 doesn't mean I will play an under. I try to look at all this and make a decision, so there is no one set thing that determines a play for me. I attempt to look at some games as they get close to half time that I think are going to be games that feature a good points per possession ratio either favoring the OVER or UNDER to cut down on the # of games I will look at overall. So in the end, it's an overview of all of this and then hoping to make a good choice. I always answer questions about these if you ask and all of this should sum it up for you - that the formula is my starting point with the gut feeling for the game being the ultimate deciding factor.
Here's last season's thread for anyone who wants to look at anything. It lets you see the peaks and valleys, etc.
