EP36's NCAAB 2nd Half Formula Plays: '13-'14

[AceKingHigh]

Unreal!!! can't believe this one didn't go over... O_o

[EaglesPhan36]

It needed I think 18 points with a little over five minutes left. That is an easy do in the majority of college games. Just amazes me how many times droughts come at the worst times for bets like this ... also seems like LSU is not managing the game well at all in the last minute. Wasting 10 seconds to foul, etc.

[AceKingHigh]

HOLYSHIT what would you know!?!??!?!?!?

[EaglesPhan36]

Heavenly father! Special delivery Anthony Hickey!

[AceKingHigh]

Just what I talked about! LOLOLOL

[EaglesPhan36]

I think Karma just bust a nut on me ... and I liked it.

[AceKingHigh]

hahahhaa I also had Umass -2 so at least won 1 of the two :P

[EaglesPhan36]

Passing on WV-Va.Tech.

[AceKingHigh]

[EaglesPhan36]

It trended towards an Over with the total about four shy of the expected # of possessions. Looks like it will make it with ease. I was not so sure the offenses would do enough ... they haven't done great, but the fouling has picked up more than the 1st half. Interesting to watch these. Really hard to make cases for unders.

[AceKingHigh]

yes indeed.... did you explain in any of your posts what you look into possessions ? how do you calculate the # ?

[AceKingHigh]

Maybe we can have another set of eyes look closely into it and maybe we can improve it to provide a higher hit rate !

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah it is in the first post. Short version, estimated possessions should equal close to FGAs - Off. Rebs + Turnovers + (FTAs * 0.44)

[EaglesPhan36]

Cannot play this SC-Baylor total. Super efficient offenses in the 1st half. 62 possessions, 79 freaking points.

Am taking SC +9 though.

[dymd3z]

Taking Baylor -8.5

[dymd3z]

Nice play on SC EP!!!

Was on the Under 2h also... Took Bay just for some action!!! Getting a better idea of who looks like what so fur..

Let's dial up some good 2h O/U ... BOL bud!

[EaglesPhan36]

Taking Baylor -8.5

Really liked SC and the points. Figured we'd see more fouling and Baylor had already proven they can't hit FTs. And that's what continued to happen ...

Good to see the #s did not lie on this one either. Possessions were low, so Under would have been the play if you wanted to risk it. My problem was the efficient offenses kept the point total too high in the 1st ... so you always have to factor in that could continue. It did not though and the under cruised obviously. Just trying to give a report on some of these for anyone who cares.

I've very picky with playing any sides, but early in the season it seems like you can find some teams getting over valued on their name or ranking. UCLA was one the other night when they played Drexel. Just some things I notice too.

[AceKingHigh]

Very nice EP! I also took +Pts and was on the under for the game, happy it hit

[EaglesPhan36]

Insert *puke* pre-pick...

11.12.13: Cincinnati-NC State Under 80 [-110]

[AceKingHigh]

Get it!

[tsrudm]

This thread is very predictable. Here is what happens:

Post A: EP's pick
Post B: Someone's encouragement
Post C: EP's excuse/rant as to why the pick does not hit.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks for your excellent input. Don't you have a Call of Duty game to play now?

There are always some picks that get beat due to a rough spot in a game, some just suck from a picking standpoint. I have plenty of both. I'm not making myself out to be anything in this thread or any other. I'm trying to recap picks and let posters know what happened. Picks are still losers when they lose. Winners when they win regardless of good or bad luck. I'll survive.

And I guess the 4th predictable part of the thread is ...

Post D: Ghost comes in and says stuff.

Groovy.

[AceKingHigh]

LOL, that's just great... don't know why you even comment to this fools EP, but whatever

[EaglesPhan36]

Well I mean if someone is gonna stalk me, the least I can do is give him some DNA

[southpaw74]

Keep on keepin on EP that was a nice easy under in cincy!

[EaglesPhan36]

11.12.13: Vanderbilt-Georgia State Under 76.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

I am trying to tweet these now as well for anyone who cares.

[EaglesPhan36]

Trying to refrain from doing too many, but a general observation of most of what I have seen tonight is it seems the books are setting these 2nd halves far too high now perhaps based on the earlier results. Would not be surprised if more Unders are cashing tonight so far .. or at least the #s point towards those being better plays.

Of course I say that and the one I choose to play will probably sail over knowing the way things work.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pretty much exactly what is happening.

[EaglesPhan36]

Most of these #s aren't worth playing tonight, so exercising that patience to skip them. Going to try another side, Tennessee -0.5 @ -110

[EaglesPhan36]

Most of these continue to be unplayable where they are set.

[EaglesPhan36]

Most of these #s aren't worth playing tonight, so exercising that patience to skip them. Going to try another side, Tennessee -0.5 @ -110

Nice. 43-40 Vols won the 2nd half. Might just look for one more side in the last batch since the totals are not offering much.

[EaglesPhan36]

11.12.13: USC-CS Northridge Over 83.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 8-9 [-1.90]

Good day overall despite some early bumps. 3-2 works.

[AceKingHigh]

Very nice EP! keep it up! I already went to sleep but can't complain yesterday was really good