How I handicap a CBB game

[Machine Choice]

I don't know why people give a damn how I handicap, being that I'm only hitting 59% and there are alot more people here doing much better than that...but to alleviate all the ass-whining about why I don't post my rationale behind my plays, I'll go ahead and do it here now so that I never have to do it again.

[Machine Choice]

REWIND: XAVIER @ DAYTON (Feb 11)

(I chose Xavier to cover -3, they lost by 13)

1. Pulled down the lines from Greek, Bookmaker and Bodog (my three books) and compared it to what the Sagarin Predictor model showed for the game. Predictor showed Xavier winning by four, even with Dayton having home-court advantage. Edge: Xavier

2. Analayzed the schedules of each team and asked four questions: 1. How many times had Xavier beaten a team of Dayton's caliber by four points 2. How many times did a team of Dayton's caliber finish a game within four points of Xavier 3. How many times had Dayton NOT lost by more than four points (either at home or on the road) to a team of Xavier's caliber and 4. How many times did Dayton play a very tight game against a team much worse than Xavier? To answer these questions, I used the Sagarin ratings of every team that Xavier and Dayton had faced. Dayton was ranked 60 in Sagarin. Xavier was ranked 13. The results: Xavier = 3, Dayton = 4. Edge: Dayton

3. Then I flipped over to Statfox and analyzed ATS trends in these categories: home/away (as applicable to this game), Tuesday nights, versus conference opponents, versus teams with a winning record, versus good defensive teams giving up < 64 ppg, February games, and last five games. The results yielded these ATS win percentages for each team in the above categories: Xavier 35-17 (67%), Dayton 21-33 (38%). Edge: Xavier

4. Then I looked at strength of schedule. Dayton's strength of schedule was around 260, Xavier's was around 48. Against teams ranked in the Sagarin top 50, Dayton was 1-0 and Xavier was 4-2. Dayton had only faced one team in the Sagarin top 50, so they were actually an unproven team. Clearly Xavier had much more experience facing solid teams in a nationally televised primetime game (remember the LSU game in Baton Rouge?). Edge: Xavier

5. Then I looked at how both teams performed in their most recent game. Xavier had lost on the road to Duquesne by four points, which was actually due to Duquesne shooting a FREAKISH 81% in the first half. Meanwhile, Dayton got blown out by a much poorer Charlotte team. Edge: Xavier

6. Then I averaged the PF/PA for both teams in their last five games only. I compared these results with the strength of schedule of those five teams (using Sagarin). The PF/PA breakdown showed the teams at dead even, HOWEVER, the SOS of Dayton's previous five opponents was only 135 whereas for Xavier it was 101. Edge: Xavier

7. Then I read the Yahoo Team Reports for both teams in order to pick up on rumors, illness, grade issues, etc...I learned that Xavier's freshmen point guard could have problems against Dayton's full-court press. I leaned that Xavier's 7" tall Freeze was having ankle issues. I also learned that Dayton was concerned about not being able to get inside the paint against Xavier's superior size, especially since Dayton's FG% had been poor in their recent games. I learned that Dayton was 0-6 vs Xavier in their previous 6 matchups and that Xavier's average MOV in those games was more than 14 points. Edge: even, leaning Xavier

I read all of these things and figured: which of these teams has the edge, which is more "proven"?

Xavier -3

Then I cracked a couple of beers, got comfortable, and watched Dayton destroy my play and research. That's gambling! You use as much research as you can, place the best bet you can, and then hope to win 60% of the time. When you lose, at least you can look at yourself in the mirror and know that you did your homework and didn't fall for a sucker play. The key is money management. Money Management means you will always come out on top in the long run!

[mcbaseball10]

Thanks for doing all the leg work for us newbies. Its up to us to decide whether we want to pull the trigger on your picks. Keep up the good work.

[Rick22]

WOW - thanks for the insight. Now I know how much more work I need to do. GL

[007Fatty]

dude good job=)

[tekneeqz]

and there you have it.

[Achilles15]

the human element would say, bet Dayton, you must factor this in

[Machine Choice]

the human element would say, bet Dayton, you must factor this in

I'll make a deal with you. You use "the human element" (whatever that means) and I'll use my system and we'll compare records after 100 games.

[roasthawg]

The key is money management.

Couldn't agree with you more...nice write up!

[lambogb]

do u have any criteria for which games u even choose to research?

i dont see u post on as many of the big games as other top cappers do

[Machine Choice]

do u have any criteria for which games u even choose to research?

i dont see u post on as many of the big games as other top cappers do

I choose two teams who are in a similar position with respect to overall record and motivation.

[BiffTFinancial]

I choose two teams who are in a similar position with respect to overall record and motivation.

This is an excellent point and the reason that I favor college hoops over NBA. In a lot of cases, motivation being equal, you really can play the games on paper.

[lambogb]

agreed.. never thought of doing that
much to learn...

[Machine Choice]

This is an excellent point and the reason that I favor college hoops over NBA. In a lot of cases, motivation being equal, you really can play the games on paper.

the girl in your avatar....I would like to rip her shirt off

[Vonnegut]

I wish I had of read this thread before I destroyed 3 months of money management tonight by chasing. First time I have done this in 5 years and I feel bad about it.

[darkenergy]

the girl in your avatar....I would like to rip her shirt off

I kinda thinking the same every time I saw that avatar, LOL. Beautiful face she got !!!! I didn't know this machine has emotion, lol.
BTW, thank you for sharing your insight.

[lambogb]

yea!
and her pants!!

[roadwarrior1]

Vonnegut......excuse me for being ignorant but I am very happy you are flying the hAWKeyes symbol and not that old dude??? Who n the hell was that?

That guy creeped me out...........and I could not help think you where some real old fart capping games.....

[roadwarrior1]

I think machine was tired of getting his ass kicked by his book and took matters in his own hands..........i respect the guy for doing this and also his winning record.

Not to mention his time capping..........thats not easy to do.

[BiffTFinancial]

Vonnegut......excuse me for being ignorant but I am very happy you are flying the hAWKeyes symbol and not that old dude??? Who n the hell was that?

That guy creeped me out...........and I could not help think you where some real old fart capping games.....

Hint: that old dude was the most famous person to go by the last name Vonnegut.

[roadwarrior1]

that would be Curt.......right?

[frostno98]

I'd just go with my 4 years experience in NCAAB to cap games. Very vital as the final push toward conference Tourney approaches.

[Tomato]

Tomato stopped reading when he saw "59%". Tomato hits 61.54%. Tomato believes that the capping done is a waste of time.

[tnt]

the girl in your avatar....I would like to rip her shirt off

<<<<< i like that!!!

[Dexter]

i like the way you cap games - good stuff.

now go back to being robotic

[BiffTFinancial]

the girl in your avatar....I would like to rip her shirt off

Gold, machine - anything to contribute to your good work. That's my girlfriend, Amanda Knox [http://www.newsweek.com/id/180004]. She's in an Italian prison for a crime she didn't commit, and so I am. The reason for the provocative pose is that she's wearing handcuffs for one of her many court appearances [you can't see them in the avatar]. I think it is the sexiest picture I've ever seen.

Thank you for letting me learn English from your message board.

[gametime_365]

REWIND: XAVIER @ DAYTON (Feb 11)

(I chose Xavier to cover -3, they lost by 13)

1. Pulled down the lines from Greek, Bookmaker and Bodog (my three books) and compared it to what the Sagarin Predictor model showed for the game. Predictor showed Xavier winning by four, even with Dayton having home-court advantage. Edge: Xavier

2. Analayzed the schedules of each team and asked four questions: 1. How many times had Xavier beaten a team of Dayton's caliber by four points 2. How many times did a team of Dayton's caliber finish a game within four points of Xavier 3. How many times had Dayton NOT lost by more than four points (either at home or on the road) to a team of Xavier's caliber and 4. How many times did Dayton play a very tight game against a team much worse than Xavier? To answer these questions, I used the Sagarin ratings of every team that Xavier and Dayton had faced. Dayton was ranked 60 in Sagarin. Xavier was ranked 13. The results: Xavier = 3, Dayton = 4. Edge: Dayton

3. Then I flipped over to Statfox and analyzed ATS trends in these categories: home/away (as applicable to this game), Tuesday nights, versus conference opponents, versus teams with a winning record, versus good defensive teams giving up < 64 ppg, February games, and last five games. The results yielded these ATS win percentages for each team in the above categories: Xavier 35-17 (67%), Dayton 21-33 (38%). Edge: Xavier

4. Then I looked at strength of schedule. Dayton's strength of schedule was around 260, Xavier's was around 48. Against teams ranked in the Sagarin top 50, Dayton was 1-0 and Xavier was 4-2. Dayton had only faced one team in the Sagarin top 50, so they were actually an unproven team. Clearly Xavier had much more experience facing solid teams in a nationally televised primetime game (remember the LSU game in Baton Rouge?). Edge: Xavier

5. Then I looked at how both teams performed in their most recent game. Xavier had lost on the road to Duquesne by four points, which was actually due to Duquesne shooting a FREAKISH 81% in the first half. Meanwhile, Dayton got blown out by a much poorer Charlotte team. Edge: Xavier

6. Then I averaged the PF/PA for both teams in their last five games only. I compared these results with the strength of schedule of those five teams (using Sagarin). The PF/PA breakdown showed the teams at dead even, HOWEVER, the SOS of Dayton's previous five opponents was only 135 whereas for Xavier it was 101. Edge: Xavier

7. Then I read the Yahoo Team Reports for both teams in order to pick up on rumors, illness, grade issues, etc...I learned that Xavier's freshmen point guard could have problems against Dayton's full-court press. I leaned that Xavier's 7" tall Freeze was having ankle issues. I also learned that Dayton was concerned about not being able to get inside the paint against Xavier's superior size, especially since Dayton's FG% had been poor in their recent games. I learned that Dayton was 0-6 vs Xavier in their previous 6 matchups and that Xavier's average MOV in those games was more than 14 points. Edge: even, leaning Xavier

I read all of these things and figured: which of these teams has the edge, which is more "proven"?

Xavier -3

Then I cracked a couple of beers, got comfortable, and watched Dayton destroy my play and research. That's gambling! You use as much research as you can, place the best bet you can, and then hope to win 60% of the time. When you lose, at least you can look at yourself in the mirror and know that you did your homework and didn't fall for a sucker play. The key is money management. Money Management means you will always come out on top in the long run!

Nice write up **. I had Dayton their previous game when they were 22-2 going into Charlotte last Sunday. They were slightly favored minus a couple points. I loaded up on that game and they got SMOKED in the 2nd half. Many of the Dayton players were complaining "before" that game why they were not ranked in the top 25. I'd imagine after that road game they had a ton of heat on them to put up another W. This must have been a factor vs. Xavier @ Home. Either way CBB is not easy to cap, I prefer NBA less factors involved.

[OTown]

Raffaelle Sollecito?

Gold, machine - anything to contribute to your good work. That's my girlfriend, Amanda Knox [http://www.newsweek.com/id/180004]. She's in an Italian prison for a crime she didn't commit, and so I am. The reason for the provocative pose is that she's wearing handcuffs for one of her many court appearances [you can't see them in the avatar]. I think it is the sexiest picture I've ever seen.

Thank you for letting me learn English from your message board.

WOW!!! I heard of this story in the newspaper in Canada i can't believed myself. So i guess your name would be Raffaelle Sollecito? I hope you and your girlfriend the best.

How do you still have time to gamble with all this distraction going on in your life? Best of luck.

[DevilDog]

I have seen a lot on this story and this woman has a HUGE hill to climb.

[BiffTFinancial]

WOW!!! I heard of this story in the newspaper in Canada i can't believed myself. So i guess your name would be Raffaelle Sollecito? I hope you and your girlfriend the best.

How do you still have time to gamble with all this distraction going on in your life? Best of luck.

That's correct. I find that, in these difficult times, college hoops wagers keep me sane, particularly when short-sighted Italian "laws" keep me away from my fair Amanda. I'm trying to, how you say, spin it positive and use the time to brush up on my English and learn art of college hoops wagering from American sharps so that I will no longer be, as you call it, a trick-azz mark. Also, I must admit, I love any pictures of Amanda in handcuffs.

[rezkoness69]

That's correct. I find that, in these difficult times, college hoops wagers keep me sane, particularly when short-sighted Italian "laws" keep me away from my fair Amanda. I'm trying to, how you say, spin it positive and use the time to brush up on my English and learn art of college hoops wagering from American sharps so that I will no longer be, as you call it, a trick-azz mark. Also, I must admit, I love any pictures of Amanda in handcuffs.

I wish the best for you and your girlfriend, man. Things like these show how unimportant things like betting college basketball are. God bless you

[kmarinouofm]

lol then why is his location cleveland??

[losturmarbles]

lol then why is his location cleveland??

lol are you suggesting BiffTFinancial is full of shit?

i say its a

[AZNBroker]

-Machine when do you posts your plays?

I see in your CBB thread you skip some days...post at sporadic hours?

Would be nice to know be much easier to follow you!

[MoneyintheBank09]

he is not posting college right now he is waiting for the tourny to start i believe