For what it is worth I passed on the football game yesterday. Just because it is the Super Bowl does not mean a person should bet it. Every way I looked at it I came up short. I had the game to be between 4-12 Pitt for an average of 8. That is not a good play with a 1 point margin to work with. I posted 8 playoff games and they all won. I passed 3 of the 11 playoff games and if I had to play a team would have been 1-2.
Here is some good stuff for college basketball . As the season go's on the lesser teams catch up to the better teams therefore my perimeters for appropiate point spreads to play, go's down as soon as Christmas ends and conference play starts. Good teams that easily beat lesser teams at the start of the year will find them competitive as the year go's on. In our large data base I put together some strict perimeters of ok point spreads that can and can not be played in relationship to favorites .
Nov thru the nearest Sat to Dec 7 -25 points is ok
Dec 7th thru Christmas -20 is ok
Every week thereafter subtract 1 point thru Feb 1
This will give be -15 at that point. After Feb 1st subtract 1/2 point. At the end of the regular season that will be -12 1/2. Conference tournament time gos to-12 and stays there. Many seemingly playable games for what we do become suspect. It is best to be conservative and pass favorites at these point spreads. Underdogs become a really good thing if they have a base to work with.
Underdogs outside these perimeters dominated at the 20= point mark. all 6 teams favored by 30 or more lost. 20 1/2 point favorites were getting shredded. I do not know what its been in Jan after Christmas but I do know it is very unstable for me to plats teams outside those perimeters. Saturday I loved Xavier but they were -18 and they lost. I liked 3 other teams and 2 of them lost.
I did not give a lot of detail but trust me it is the right thing to do , at least in the long run.
Cheers
Here is some good stuff for college basketball . As the season go's on the lesser teams catch up to the better teams therefore my perimeters for appropiate point spreads to play, go's down as soon as Christmas ends and conference play starts. Good teams that easily beat lesser teams at the start of the year will find them competitive as the year go's on. In our large data base I put together some strict perimeters of ok point spreads that can and can not be played in relationship to favorites .
Nov thru the nearest Sat to Dec 7 -25 points is ok
Dec 7th thru Christmas -20 is ok
Every week thereafter subtract 1 point thru Feb 1
This will give be -15 at that point. After Feb 1st subtract 1/2 point. At the end of the regular season that will be -12 1/2. Conference tournament time gos to-12 and stays there. Many seemingly playable games for what we do become suspect. It is best to be conservative and pass favorites at these point spreads. Underdogs become a really good thing if they have a base to work with.
Underdogs outside these perimeters dominated at the 20= point mark. all 6 teams favored by 30 or more lost. 20 1/2 point favorites were getting shredded. I do not know what its been in Jan after Christmas but I do know it is very unstable for me to plats teams outside those perimeters. Saturday I loved Xavier but they were -18 and they lost. I liked 3 other teams and 2 of them lost.
I did not give a lot of detail but trust me it is the right thing to do , at least in the long run.
Cheers