CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Leans for Sunday 2/1/09

[cocknocker]

I am pretty busy and I will try to put a reason in place for the plays but right now it is what it is. I'm on vacation..


Creighton-10
Michigan State-12
Duke-12.5 1st half (Secret Play)

[Dexter]

Super Bowl XLIII-

I first wanted to take a look at the true strength of schedule, being that all the information about each team is at our disposal now. The cards have played 11 games vs plus 500 teams (5-6 su/6-5 ats) while the steelers have only played 9 games vs plus 500 teams (5-4 su/4-5 ats). Not much information there except for the fact that the cards have played better teams and have been slightly better ats. However I wasn’t getting the standout information I was looking for. Next I moved on to key stats:

-the steelers score 22ppg while the cards score 27ppg

Advantage>Cards

-the steelers give up 14ppg while the cards give up 27ppg

Advantage>Steelers

-the steelers are 16th in pass yards, while the cards are 22nd vs the pass.

Advantage>Steelers

-the steelers are 23rd in rushing yards while the cards are 16th vs the rush.

Advantage>Cards

-the cards are 2nd in passing yards while the steelers are 1st vs the pass.

Advantage>Steelers

-the cards are 32nd in rushing yards while the steelers are 2nd vs the rush

Advantage>Steelers

So far, the numbers point to the Steelers so far, but there’s more.

The Cards beat the same Steeler team (for the most part) by 7 points at home last year. The Steelers would likely cause havoc for Warner and company in Heinz field, with the fans screaming on every offensive snap for the Cards. That’s not going to be the case on a neutral site – yes the steeler defense was still only giving up about 13ppg on the road, but I cant see Warner/Fitzgerald being held to under 20.

Coaching Comparison – Mike Tomlin has 0 superbowl rings while Ken Wisenhunt has 1.

Advantage>Cards

QB Comparison – Kurt Warner has 1 superbowl ring while Ben Rothlesiberger has 1
Advantage>Push

Having one of the favorite public teams (the steelers) in this superbowl has the line inflated by several points. I like the Cards at my projected of 5, and love them catching 7. I have one of those locals (like you nonsense) who always jacks up the favorites – on que he gave me a spread of 7.5, and I didn’t have to ask to buy the hook. I think the Cards have the best player on the field in Fitzgerald, and he WILL go down as one of the greatest wideouts ever. I still have never seen him drop a pass, and the Steelers will pay if they blitz warner heavy – he thrives on teams blitzing him, and has the receivers/quick release to beat the blitz. Hines Ward will likely not be 100% for this game either – that is a big deal for the steelers. In big games, I’ve always had the feeling that the sharps make their plays early, and the early RLM has gone to the Cards. I’m done betting totals in championship games, so will instead just be playing the Cards heavy in this one. I will likely also throw a few bucks down on the ML as well.

Cards – 27
Steelers – 24

Cards +7.5 (big)

[Dexter]

the pistons simply own the cavs at the palace - they have won 4 of 5 su at home to the cavs and the 1 loss was by 2 points. gimme them 4 points, as the cavs have a curious trend going in their last 4 ats covers - they have followed those games up with ats losses. detroit is coming off of a home loss to the celts - so they should be hungry for this one in front of the home crowd.

-pistons

[gameday10]

Can we go ahead and lock in the secret play, or does it have a chance to change?

[maddogmadden86]

i love duke first half play tomorrow duke hates losing they will romp on the cavs first half especially at home duke 1st half probably the largest bet so far this year

[BmoreBucco]

Anybody want to talk me out of taking Orlando -5.5 (buying hook) at Toronto? I like it a lot at first glance...

[flavo-ice]

Super Bowl XLIII-

I first wanted to take a look at the true strength of schedule, being that all the information about each team is at our disposal now. The cards have played 11 games vs plus 500 teams (5-6 su/6-5 ats) while the steelers have only played 9 games vs plus 500 teams (5-4 su/4-5 ats). Not much information there except for the fact that the cards have played better teams and have been slightly better ats. However I wasn’t getting the standout information I was looking for. Next I moved on to key stats:

-the steelers score 22ppg while the cards score 27ppg

Advantage>Cards

-the steelers give up 14ppg while the cards give up 27ppg

Advantage>Steelers

-the steelers are 16th in pass yards, while the cards are 22nd vs the pass.

Advantage>Steelers

-the steelers are 23rd in rushing yards while the cards are 16th vs the rush.

Advantage>Cards

-the cards are 2nd in passing yards while the steelers are 1st vs the pass.

Advantage>Steelers

-the cards are 32nd in rushing yards while the steelers are 2nd vs the rush

Advantage>Steelers

So far, the numbers point to the Steelers so far, but there’s more.

The Cards beat the same Steeler team (for the most part) by 7 points at home last year. The Steelers would likely cause havoc for Warner and company in Heinz field, with the fans screaming on every offensive snap for the Cards. That’s not going to be the case on a neutral site – yes the steeler defense was still only giving up about 13ppg on the road, but I cant see Warner/Fitzgerald being held to under 20.

Coaching Comparison – Mike Tomlin has 0 superbowl rings while Ken Wisenhunt has 1.

Advantage>Cards

QB Comparison – Kurt Warner has 1 superbowl ring while Ben Rothlesiberger has 1
Advantage>Push

Having one of the favorite public teams (the steelers) in this superbowl has the line inflated by several points. I like the Cards at my projected of 5, and love them catching 7. I have one of those locals (like you nonsense) who always jacks up the favorites – on que he gave me a spread of 7.5, and I didn’t have to ask to buy the hook. I think the Cards have the best player on the field in Fitzgerald, and he WILL go down as one of the greatest wideouts ever. I still have never seen him drop a pass, and the Steelers will pay if they blitz warner heavy – he thrives on teams blitzing him, and has the receivers/quick release to beat the blitz. Hines Ward will likely not be 100% for this game either – that is a big deal for the steelers. In big games, I’ve always had the feeling that the sharps make their plays early, and the early RLM has gone to the Cards. I’m done betting totals in championship games, so will instead just be playing the Cards heavy in this one. I will likely also throw a few bucks down on the ML as well.

Cards – 27
Steelers – 24

Cards +7.5 (big)

Great info and analysis. Thanks for sharing. I see a Pitt win as you do but not covering the spread.

The only thing that worries me is a Polamulu pik 6 at the end of the game to blow the spread. Sort of like what happened to my Balt action vs. Pitt 2 weeks ago.

[OC]

Just keep it at + 7 1/2 Dex and I think we're all good with the Cards. By the way, I couldn't pick a total in big games either if my life depended on it. If the total was 1 I'd go "UNDER".

[infamousdx]

Is there anyone on the OVER? I lean Under and keep reading everyone else is too.

[Dexter]

Just keep it at + 7 1/2 Dex and I think we're all good with the Cards. By the way, I couldn't pick a total in big games either if my life depended on it. If the total was 1 I'd go "UNDER".

lol....with more time to prepare, the defenses usually have the edge - but you cant really take the cards and expect an under.

[Dexter]

Great info and analysis. Thanks for sharing. I see a Pitt win as you do but not covering the spread.

The only thing that worries me is a Polamulu pik 6 at the end of the game to blow the spread. Sort of like what happened to my Balt action vs. Pitt 2 weeks ago.

i see an arizona su win flavo

[jgbgsox]

i like ari +14 and over 40 [teaser]

[jgbgsox]

10 more min until fed and nadal

[jgbgsox]

anyone bet this?

[Luv2Poker]

i like ari +14 and over 40 [teaser]

Not bad...ONLY way i would even THINK about entertaining an AZ bet would be to get the extra @ 7.5 not 7. Otherwise, a no go...FO SHO!!!!! I now live 15 minutes away and will be entertained at raymond james either way!! GL to you

[tsilvetti]

Dexter , great write up , My bets on the crads but with the spread although I feel they can win SU.

My spread moved to Cards +6.5 which im quite angry about..

I would go over in this but if Pitt D steps up and shuts down the pass , Cards are don for which would then be a time of possession game for Pitt. Then again , I doubt that will happen as Warner is playing great and has an arsenal of WR to go to. Pitt also has a good O , so im looking to see a score fest here , my lean is with the Over if I stab at it.

[tsilvetti]

Oh another bet I like is , Team totals , Arizona is at 20 , and I really like that

aswell - Arizona +10.5 at -200 , Might be worth it

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Oh another bet I like is , Team totals , Arizona is at 20 , and I really like that

aswell - Arizona +10.5 at -200 , Might be worth it

Arizona over for the Team Total definitely looks sweet!

[danrman]

everybody take minnesota to cover vs. the celtics... this will be my 2nd guranteed cover

[Luv2Poker]

everybody take minnesota to cover vs. the celtics... this will be my 2nd guranteed cover

I look at it as, you either take the celts minus....or you lay off the damn game...unless u hate money! Just my $.02. One shouldnt mess with a good thing my man, unless the line has been adjusted so much where u MUST take a shot! The key is to filter through and find the nut my brother! haven't looked at any of the lines as i need to grab some shut eye..headin' to the super bowl in 6 hours. If i was a genie....I would say....try to find another winner!

[OC]

everybody take minnesota to cover vs. the celtics... this will be my 2nd guranteed cover

Right now I wouldn't take the 92 Bulls (and I'm from Chicago) to cover the C's. Roll C's roll. OK maybe I would but only if Michael bet on himself but that would never happen would it?

You still up and drinking Luv2?

[Luv2Poker]

BTW gentlemen....If anyone is interested in going to the GAME Tomorrow...I can get xtra tix....PM me if u need'em and ur local!

[Luv2Poker]

Right now I wouldn't take the 92 Bulls (and I'm from Chicago) to cover the C's. Roll C's roll. OK maybe I would but only if Michael bet on himself but that would never happen would it?

You still up and drinking Luv2?

OH crap man...i'm just shy of hammered. At least I'm at home. Born and raised in Pitt, live here in Fla now. 15 minutes away from raymond james and dale mabry hwy and most certainly goin to the game in the am. Wired/pumped!!!...not even close to bein' tired. However, i have to get some shut eye or I'll be draggin' till game time, while everyone else is partyin' balls tailgaitin as i'm in the lawn chair moaning!!

[OC]

OH crap man...i'm just shy of hammered. At least I'm at home. Born and raised in Pitt, live here in Fla now. 15 minutes away from raymond james and dale mabry hwy and most certainly goin to the game in the am. Wired/pumped!!!...not even close to bein' tired. However, i have to get some shut eye or I'll be draggin' till game time, while everyone else is partyin' balls tailgaitin as i'm in the lawn chair moaning!!

Bah suck it up ... pull an all nighter lol. Have a great time tomorrow. Wish I was local. I'm cold in Chi Town. Just wanna be up to get my BB plays in. A little hair o the dog will be good for ya in the AM. I make a wicked Bloody Mary.

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

everybody take minnesota to cover vs. the celtics... this will be my 2nd guranteed cover

Yeah, seems like a decent bet - Perkins might be suspended with his flagranted foul last game as well.

I'm on the Celts 1Q, but Minny seem decent enough to cover the game.

[pho3nix32]

The Clips really stunk today! Let's try to get back at the books tomorrow. On to my lean:

line: cc@dp 180.5
pick: 180.5 under

Trends that support my lean:

- The under for the Cavs is 3-0 for Sunday games this season.
- The under for the Cavs is 14-9 in road games this season.
- The under for the Pistons is 10-3 when playing as dogs this season.
- The under for the Pistons is 6-2 for Sunday games this season.
- Head to head, the under is 11-4 in meetings for the last 3 seasons.
- Head to head, the under is 6-2 the last 3 seasons on games played in Detroit.

Sunday seems to be DEFENSE DAY for both teams. Look for a low scoring, "playoff atmosphere" type of game tomorrow.

[Willie Bee]

I was within an eyelash of moving the 1/31 thread to private and restricting every damn account that posted in the thread. I swear, I have never, ever seen such childishness as I see go back and forth in the last week or so in these basketball forums.

There is going to be no tolerance -- ZERO -- given to any -- ANY -- posters today in these threads. Either grow the hell up or move the hell along.

[Cassidy]

Hey CK, im actually trying to learn some about the money management factor you emphasize, but Im unnable to get it clear. For example, yesterday this was your pointed out plays:

Rutgers-3.5
Notre Dame+12 (Played online buying a point)
Kansas-22 (There isn't even a moneyline for the game!)HEAVY
Wisconsin+1
Kansas-12 1st half (Secret Play) HEAVY
Gonzaga-10.5 1st half (Secret Play) HEAVY
New York Knicks +4.5 (with point buy)

From my humble understanding, taking plays as "standard" and HEAVY ones, the result from this card is (-)1 Heavy and the points bought. Have read the whole thread but not more plays or adds but the Gonzaga 2nd half push.


At the end you reported your overall profit from it:

Lost 1500 on Notre Dame online
Lost 1500 on Gonzaga 1st half online
Gonzaga-8 Push 2nd half in person
Lost 1500 on Wisconsin in person
Won 3100 on KU 1st half online and in person
Lost 1500 on KU for game online
Won 3100 on NY online and in person
Won 3100 on Rutgers online and in person


So, what Im asking myself, is

1. How is possible the same loss on Notre Dame and Gonzaga 1st Half, when just last one was pointed out as HEAVY?

2. By the way, only your hits was the biggest (3100) over your losses (1500), but no one of them was advised to go that HEAVY for that amount respect the others, or if not the amount, at least the ratio to go with all them. I mean, you dont state your "in person" wagers before the game, but you do with its profits when the day is over.

You always says its all about money management; just would like to learn to improve money management from your great aknowledge, but its kinda blur sometimes the way you put it forward, specially when you report those big winnings after the game is over.

[nonsense48]

DEX, i'm with you on ARI+7 NBA:ORL-6' BOS-13' CLE-4 det is just too iffy against +500% teams and a.i. has destroyed the chemistry of my beloved pistons this season. jmo. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE. the above plays are locked in.

[SamsNCharge99]

the NBA tourney threads are all out. If you're in, post picks in your matchup thread

[nonsense48]

i'm posted sam 4 plays as follows:ORL-6 O-201, BOS-14, CLE-4 GOOD LUCK HERO

[hockeytown11]

bad finish in pucks yesterday, now 12-5 last 17 look for 2-0 today

Washington over 5.5
Boston +110

[nonsense48]

day-4 cincy+11'

[peterpan19]

early plays:
bos 1st qrt -3.5
orl -3 1st half

german bundesliga men: Brose baskets -3

[hockeytown11]

im all over dayton -4,i have been on them 5 times this year lost all 5,i am due lol