I have been around basketball for 50 years as a player coach and scout . Abilities and styles chance but some things never change.
Each year certain things can be depended upon . Each TIME of the year their are certain patterns that happen over and over again whether it is 1960 or 2010.
I divide the year into 5 phases. The start of the season the very good experienced teams usually kick butt why the lesser teams and inexperienced teams are learning and getting adjusted to what they must accomplish to get to the next level. The second part of the year starts about the time exams starts and lasts roughly when conference play starts. Teams have played several games and know what they must do to contend. Between exams and the holidays this is the most unstable time for me to handicap and teams can and do change abruptly It immediately go's from the easiest time to handicap into the hardest. Teams often play only 1 game a week and schedules are often peculiar. Many teams are using this time to practice more and getting the kinks out of the negative part of their game. They are also getting more comfortable with each other and all of a sudden are putting it all together without warning. Phase 3 comes just after Christmas as conference play starts. This cycle is tricky but manageable. The first 3-4 games of conference play are challenging and one must careful about teams trying to make a statement but those teams can run out of gas quickly separeting the contenders from the pretenders. On the other hand those early season teams that were having their problems, often start getting it and at this time of year are threats to upset the elite teams and do EVERY year. Power ratings tighten up and usually one is behind a step or 2 adjusting to them. Teams that a top ten team could beat another by 25 early on in the year all of a sudden find a tough foe. It is time for dogs and especially home dogs at +5 or more to become the focus. I adjust my play just about now but wait for Jan too clear. I do not know if that is wise because late January is probably the time to emphasis this difference . My instincts tell me the first 4 weeks in January is when to end phase 3 and start phase 4. The last phase (5) is tournament time and is very predictable or at least has been for me in the past. The same things happen over and over if you can decipher the pattern of how teams are likely to perform. I hope this year has the momentum of the year that will make it easy to handicap tournament play.
Cheers
Each year certain things can be depended upon . Each TIME of the year their are certain patterns that happen over and over again whether it is 1960 or 2010.
I divide the year into 5 phases. The start of the season the very good experienced teams usually kick butt why the lesser teams and inexperienced teams are learning and getting adjusted to what they must accomplish to get to the next level. The second part of the year starts about the time exams starts and lasts roughly when conference play starts. Teams have played several games and know what they must do to contend. Between exams and the holidays this is the most unstable time for me to handicap and teams can and do change abruptly It immediately go's from the easiest time to handicap into the hardest. Teams often play only 1 game a week and schedules are often peculiar. Many teams are using this time to practice more and getting the kinks out of the negative part of their game. They are also getting more comfortable with each other and all of a sudden are putting it all together without warning. Phase 3 comes just after Christmas as conference play starts. This cycle is tricky but manageable. The first 3-4 games of conference play are challenging and one must careful about teams trying to make a statement but those teams can run out of gas quickly separeting the contenders from the pretenders. On the other hand those early season teams that were having their problems, often start getting it and at this time of year are threats to upset the elite teams and do EVERY year. Power ratings tighten up and usually one is behind a step or 2 adjusting to them. Teams that a top ten team could beat another by 25 early on in the year all of a sudden find a tough foe. It is time for dogs and especially home dogs at +5 or more to become the focus. I adjust my play just about now but wait for Jan too clear. I do not know if that is wise because late January is probably the time to emphasis this difference . My instincts tell me the first 4 weeks in January is when to end phase 3 and start phase 4. The last phase (5) is tournament time and is very predictable or at least has been for me in the past. The same things happen over and over if you can decipher the pattern of how teams are likely to perform. I hope this year has the momentum of the year that will make it easy to handicap tournament play.
Cheers