CK's Carjacking the NCAA Threads Monday 1/25/09

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #246
    Don't worry Sam, it will pick up. Just remember to close the bar when the last game is in the 2nd half. Other than that, I will help redirect questions your way tomorrow as well. i am getting deep off into the college game right now, studying teams that will be in the tournament and so on. It's fun.
    Comment
    • djpremier36
      SBR MVP
      • 12-11-08
      • 3479

      #247
      CK,

      I'm curious as to why you felt like seeing an increase in views for NCAA threads?

      I don't see any incentive?

      GL and keep up the good work!
      Comment
      • SamsNCharge99
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-22-08
        • 41242

        #248
        yea, well it's a little tougher for me now. I'm back in school and will have classes and School Events. Tomorrow night, I think we're going to a hockey game, so I won't be around as much, but I'll do my best
        Comment
        • jaymac82980
          SBR MVP
          • 01-08-09
          • 3416

          #249
          im saying that the under for portland might already be toast. i know its early, but they are cooking right now
          Comment
          • solobass
            SBR MVP
            • 01-15-09
            • 1277

            #250
            Ok, here goes. CK and all of the mafia brethren (gavel pounding) I have some evidence regarding the SP's that have been cashing like nobody's business. Tomorrow, I think we are being had. CK might be a victim of his own success. Now we all know the criteria for the SP, and might I pose a question. Are books (one that I am using) throwing up halftime money lines so that these plays are filtered out, or are we missing any plays? Should the criteria be revised? I am going to run data like crazy but my premise is this.

            Take tomorrow's Creighton/Indiana St. matchup for example. Creighton is -16.5 with a 1st H of -9 with 1st H ML -600. So far on my first pass, any spread over 15 pts does not warrant a 1st H money line and is statistically insignificant. The 1st half ML is 33% of the game ML (-1800) and I think there is a key number out there of the ratio of 1st H ML to game ML that makes the 1st H ML statistically insignificant (not sure what the % is yet, running data sets as we speak). What I mean by statistically insignificant is that we can filter in more of the CK secret play games and not hurt the overall play success percentage. Here are a few examples of money line and how the percentage of 1st H and game ML decreases as the spread number increases (no revelation there) using NCAA lines for tomorrow.

            Southern Miss -8, 1st H ML -240 Game ML -380 63%
            Wyoming -9 1st H ML -270 Game ML -470 57% (a drop of 6% for 1 ATS point)
            Kent St. -14.5 1st H ML -550 Game ML -1400 39% and so on and so forth

            Here is another angle for this as well. Creighton will probably go to -17, the 1st H to -10 and the 1st H ML being dropped due to the public betting, why wait to jump on it at -10 when if properly identified you can get for -9 for the identical contest?

            So, the main question for me/us to figure is what is the 1st H ML to Game ML ratio that will allow more plays without sacrificing the incredible 82% in which these plays hit?
            Comment
            • cocknocker
              Restricted User
              • 11-06-08
              • 8001

              #251
              dj premier36,

              This is the best time to hone your skills at the NCAA game. The NBA is going into the All-Star break, and it will be harder to handicap. The NCAA Tournament s comng up fast as well as the conference championships. i wanted for everyone to get their sills togther at the same time as me so that heading inot the tournament, we will be strong as a UNIT and not just one person giving picks. As always I need the CK Mafia to bounce ideas off of and to get some insight.
              Comment
              • lambogb
                SBR Sharp
                • 01-06-09
                • 278

                #252
                sigh i got big money on the portland line
                Comment
                • jalein
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-19-08
                  • 1005

                  #253
                  Originally posted by lambogb
                  sigh i got big money on the portland line
                  remember to pace yourself grasshopper. musta focus (said in my best Miagi voice). Dont get emotional. This is just bidness bro.
                  Comment
                  • jaymac82980
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-08-09
                    • 3416

                    #254
                    jalein...where the hell youbeen all day?
                    Comment
                    • lambogb
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 01-06-09
                      • 278

                      #255
                      word i forget every day
                      Comment
                      • jalein
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-19-08
                        • 1005

                        #256
                        CK......

                        You had me HOWLING at work today talking bout rolling up on Machine, jacking his ride and takin his rims. Lawd, that was some funny chit right there. That is something I would say when I am puffin up and smellin myself a lil bit. I dont know him, I doubt he will respond, but so what? Reading you rollin up on his turf callin him out was priceless. I had tears coming out of my eyes

                        For the record, I was a bit bold today....
                        Phoenix for the 1/2 small....LOSS
                        Phoenix -4 for game med...WIN
                        Manhattan -1 med-big.........WIN
                        Notre Dame -3 med ...........LOSS
                        Portland -10.5 small...........Pending nip and tuck now.
                        Oklahoma -2 BIG, BIG... WINNING

                        Bottom line....i am gonna cash regardless. The roll will grow...irrespective of Portland game.
                        Comment
                        • bumppinee
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 07-22-08
                          • 361

                          #257
                          Had a decent day came out with a profit, BOL to everyone tomorrow.
                          Comment
                          • jalein
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-19-08
                            • 1005

                            #258
                            Originally posted by jaymac82980
                            jalein...where the hell youbeen all day?
                            Loooooooooong day at work. Got home late and had to spend time with my little girl. Just now got some free time.
                            Comment
                            • jalein
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-19-08
                              • 1005

                              #259
                              Originally posted by lambogb
                              word i forget every day
                              You are gonna do what you are gonna do. But you have been given a blue print to build your roll. If you can get past wanting home runs and hit for average with some singles and doubles you will be fine.
                              Comment
                              • nonsense48
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-15-08
                                • 2927

                                #260
                                okla covers
                                Comment
                                • Smacksmiter
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-20-08
                                  • 1169

                                  #261
                                  Originally posted by jalein
                                  Loooooooooong day at work. Got home late and had to spend time with my little girl. Just now got some free time.
                                  I look forward to your selections every day friend...I hope work doesnt keep you late too often in the future
                                  Comment
                                  • nonsense48
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-15-08
                                    • 2927

                                    #262
                                    clips are hangin' tuff...damn it
                                    Comment
                                    • jalein
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 11-19-08
                                      • 1005

                                      #263
                                      Originally posted by Smacksmiter
                                      I look forward to your selections every day friend...I hope work doesnt keep you late too often in the future
                                      I am still learning and getting my sea legs. I excel understanding money as it relates to systems and managing a bank roll. This is the best board for wagering...period
                                      Comment
                                      • cocknocker
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-06-08
                                        • 8001

                                        #264
                                        solobass, many props for your research

                                        A line of 8 should be accompanied by a corresponding moneyline of -370 *this line is correct
                                        A line of 9 should be accompanied by a corresponding moneyline of -400 over value for Wyoming
                                        A line of 14.5 should be accompanied by a corresponding moneyline of -950 to -1000 overvalue for Kent St.

                                        So in short the spreads are not matching up with the moneylines in these particular games, which is why I didn't choose them.

                                        But moreover than that, Creighton has a moneyline of -600 for a 9 point first half spread. As I indicated above a 9 point line should be accompanied by a moneyline of -400. With the moneyline at -600 right now if that number goes up to 10 by tomorrow morning, then the moneyline will be removed and this play will automatically turn into a Secret Play. But the moneyline must be removed to discourage bettors from taking the 10, and instead opting for the underdog and the points because 10 for all intents and purposes is a game spread. I actually think that if the line hits 9.5, it will be removed. That is the only one that has athe potential to be a secret play. None of the others that you presented are anywhere near the criteria that would put the play in our favor when the average square thinks that they have the favor by taking the ignorant amount of points.

                                        You have done tremendously outstanding research however, and I speaking on behalf of the board as a whole appreciate your dedication and resolve to bring us this information.

                                        I think that the Southern Miss game is one that has a correct correlation. i don't now what the line movement on it is, but the game spread looks correct

                                        The Secret Play works in college football at a 80% clip as well.
                                        Comment
                                        • jaymac82980
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-08-09
                                          • 3416

                                          #265
                                          nonsense, the under is basically toast, but port is playing better, and i still have no problem with them covering the 10.5 spread...for what its worth.
                                          Comment
                                          • Smacksmiter
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-20-08
                                            • 1169

                                            #266
                                            Portland -6.5 for the 2nd half...books are basically saying they made a mistake setting the line at -10 and are resetting it at -7.5 here at the half based on how well the Clips have played...

                                            You would think that the Clips would fade in the 2nd half as they did the other night when their lack of bench depth meets the Blazers deep bench...

                                            but...I am not so sure...
                                            Comment
                                            • shoebox
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 11-26-08
                                              • 5710

                                              #267
                                              Whats up everybody no bets today I just cant put a stamp on anything latley, plus work and hotel= no capping time.

                                              CK you got any prop gems for the NCAA tourney or NIT??
                                              Comment
                                              • cocknocker
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-06-08
                                                • 8001

                                                #268
                                                Well when we get to that point, shoe, i will definitely buzz you in. Right now it's time to master the college game as a whole, and find those gems and sleeper teams that will cash tickets later on. I guess when you really look at it, this is going back to the future as I have always been known to do.
                                                Comment
                                                • jalein
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-19-08
                                                  • 1005

                                                  #269
                                                  Originally posted by Smacksmiter
                                                  Portland -6.5 for the 2nd half...books are basically saying they made a mistake setting the line at -10 and are resetting it at -7.5 here at the half based on how well the Clips have played...

                                                  You would think that the Clips would fade in the 2nd half as they did the other night when their lack of bench depth meets the Blazers deep bench...

                                                  but...I am not so sure...
                                                  I hear you on that one. But I am up 4 figures on the day. As such I am gonna get smart, punk out and fade my portland play with a send 1/2 bet on LA to guarantee my 4 figure cash out. No sense in pissin on a winner with greed. My goal has been met. My book will get a call bright and early in the morning. Gonna cash a nickel and let the rest build my roll, and go on about my business.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • shoebox
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-26-08
                                                    • 5710

                                                    #270
                                                    I love it CK just remember to fill me in slim???


                                                    Im playing the Spurs tommorow you can book me on that!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • solobass
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-15-09
                                                      • 1277

                                                      #271
                                                      Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                      solobass, many props for your research

                                                      A line of 8 should be accompanied by a corresponding moneyline of -370 *this line is correct
                                                      A line of 9 should be accompanied by a corresponding moneyline of -400 over value for Wyoming
                                                      A line of 14.5 should be accompanied by a corresponding moneyline of -950 to -1000 overvalue for Kent St.

                                                      So in short the spreads are not matching up with the moneylines in these particular games, which is why I didn't choose them.

                                                      But moreover than that, Creighton has a moneyline of -600 for a 9 point first half spread. As I indicated above a 9 point line should be accompanied by a moneyline of -400. With the moneyline at -600 right now if that number goes up to 10 by tomorrow morning, then the moneyline will be removed and this play will automatically turn into a Secret Play. But the moneyline must be removed to discourage bettors from taking the 10, and instead opting for the underdog and the points because 10 for all intents and purposes is a game spread. I actually think that if the line hits 9.5, it will be removed. That is the only one that has athe potential to be a secret play. None of the others that you presented are anywhere near the criteria that would put the play in our favor when the average square thinks that they have the favor by taking the ignorant amount of points.

                                                      You have done tremendously outstanding research however, and I speaking on behalf of the board as a whole appreciate your dedication and resolve to bring us this information.

                                                      I think that the Southern Miss game is one that has a correct correlation. i don't now what the line movement on it is, but the game spread looks correct

                                                      The Secret Play works in college football at a 80% clip as well.
                                                      Thanks CK you know I am on it like dots on dice! The other teams (besides Creighton) were just examples of the relations of game point spreads and their correlating effects on 1st H and Game money lines and NOT (had to clarify for everyone) on the potential secret play list. Nite everyone!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ManBearPig
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-04-08
                                                        • 2473

                                                        #272
                                                        I would've been done today if I could've got my 3 college plays in but I didn't make it to the casino in time suck cuz i would've been 4-0 on the day. Dam Clips will not go away on this one...I had the over actually so that's looking good but hitting both would be nice to end the PM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Smacksmiter
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-20-08
                                                          • 1169

                                                          #273
                                                          Originally posted by Smacksmiter
                                                          Portland -6.5 for the 2nd half...books are basically saying they made a mistake setting the line at -10 and are resetting it at -7.5 here at the half based on how well the Clips have played...

                                                          You would think that the Clips would fade in the 2nd half as they did the other night when their lack of bench depth meets the Blazers deep bench...

                                                          but...I am not so sure...
                                                          Yep...just like the other night...as long as they have this depleted lineup, need to fade them in the 2nd half ...especially if they manage to keep it close in the 1st half like they did tonight...left some money on the table there...ugh..
                                                          Comment
                                                          • cocknocker
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 11-06-08
                                                            • 8001

                                                            #274
                                                            Nice end to the PM, ManBearPig,

                                                            Yes all, we had an eventful day where I went to the dark side and still came through it unscathed. The CK Mafia just don't stop. We will get them books tomorrow and hit em up with some more outstanding plays, and get the cash and let the recession pass us by like the wind. Time for this bar to be closed. The bar across town is still open late and I bet that if you get over there fast enough, then you can still get a cupfull.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • twitch66
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 12-30-08
                                                              • 147

                                                              #275
                                                              Whoo Hoo!! New jersey and Houston lost but Marquette, phoenix, Oklahoma and Portland came through. My teaser with the; nets, Oklahoma and Portland lost but the parlay with Oklahoma -3 and the over 154 hit nicely.

                                                              2 weeks ago the bankroll was down 50%, since then I have struggled back and as of tonight I am almost double my bankroll. Granted, my bankroll is nowhere near CK’s but winning (big or small) still feels great.

                                                              I owe the come-back success to everyone here at SBR… some great info here and I am really looking forward to march madness J
                                                              Comment
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