Don't worry Sam, it will pick up. Just remember to close the bar when the last game is in the 2nd half. Other than that, I will help redirect questions your way tomorrow as well. i am getting deep off into the college game right now, studying teams that will be in the tournament and so on. It's fun.
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CK,
I'm curious as to why you felt like seeing an increase in views for NCAA threads?
I don't see any incentive?
GL and keep up the good work!Comment -
yea, well it's a little tougher for me now. I'm back in school and will have classes and School Events. Tomorrow night, I think we're going to a hockey game, so I won't be around as much, but I'll do my bestComment -
im saying that the under for portland might already be toast. i know its early, but they are cooking right nowComment -
Ok, here goes. CK and all of the mafia brethren (gavel pounding) I have some evidence regarding the SP's that have been cashing like nobody's business. Tomorrow, I think we are being had. CK might be a victim of his own success. Now we all know the criteria for the SP, and might I pose a question. Are books (one that I am using) throwing up halftime money lines so that these plays are filtered out, or are we missing any plays? Should the criteria be revised? I am going to run data like crazy but my premise is this.
Take tomorrow's Creighton/Indiana St. matchup for example. Creighton is -16.5 with a 1st H of -9 with 1st H ML -600. So far on my first pass, any spread over 15 pts does not warrant a 1st H money line and is statistically insignificant. The 1st half ML is 33% of the game ML (-1800) and I think there is a key number out there of the ratio of 1st H ML to game ML that makes the 1st H ML statistically insignificant (not sure what the % is yet, running data sets as we speak). What I mean by statistically insignificant is that we can filter in more of the CK secret play games and not hurt the overall play success percentage. Here are a few examples of money line and how the percentage of 1st H and game ML decreases as the spread number increases (no revelation there) using NCAA lines for tomorrow.
Southern Miss -8, 1st H ML -240 Game ML -380 63%
Wyoming -9 1st H ML -270 Game ML -470 57% (a drop of 6% for 1 ATS point)
Kent St. -14.5 1st H ML -550 Game ML -1400 39% and so on and so forth
Here is another angle for this as well. Creighton will probably go to -17, the 1st H to -10 and the 1st H ML being dropped due to the public betting, why wait to jump on it at -10 when if properly identified you can get for -9 for the identical contest?
So, the main question for me/us to figure is what is the 1st H ML to Game ML ratio that will allow more plays without sacrificing the incredible 82% in which these plays hit?Comment -
dj premier36,
This is the best time to hone your skills at the NCAA game. The NBA is going into the All-Star break, and it will be harder to handicap. The NCAA Tournament s comng up fast as well as the conference championships. i wanted for everyone to get their sills togther at the same time as me so that heading inot the tournament, we will be strong as a UNIT and not just one person giving picks. As always I need the CK Mafia to bounce ideas off of and to get some insight.Comment -
sigh i got big money on the portland lineComment -
jalein...where the hell youbeen all day?Comment -
word i forget every day
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CK......
You had me HOWLING at work today talking bout rolling up on Machine, jacking his ride and takin his rims. Lawd, that was some funny chit right there. That is something I would say when I am puffin up and smellin myself a lil bit. I dont know him, I doubt he will respond, but so what? Reading you rollin up on his turf callin him out was priceless. I had tears coming out of my eyes
For the record, I was a bit bold today....
Phoenix for the 1/2 small....LOSS
Phoenix -4 for game med...WIN
Manhattan -1 med-big.........WIN
Notre Dame -3 med ...........LOSS
Portland -10.5 small...........Pending nip and tuck now.
Oklahoma -2 BIG, BIG... WINNING
Bottom line....i am gonna cash regardless. The roll will grow...irrespective of Portland game.
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Had a decent day came out with a profit, BOL to everyone tomorrow.Comment -
okla coversComment -
clips are hangin' tuff...damn itComment -
I am still learning and getting my sea legs. I excel understanding money as it relates to systems and managing a bank roll. This is the best board for wagering...period
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solobass, many props for your research
A line of 8 should be accompanied by a corresponding moneyline of -370 *this line is correct
A line of 9 should be accompanied by a corresponding moneyline of -400 over value for Wyoming
A line of 14.5 should be accompanied by a corresponding moneyline of -950 to -1000 overvalue for Kent St.
So in short the spreads are not matching up with the moneylines in these particular games, which is why I didn't choose them.
But moreover than that, Creighton has a moneyline of -600 for a 9 point first half spread. As I indicated above a 9 point line should be accompanied by a moneyline of -400. With the moneyline at -600 right now if that number goes up to 10 by tomorrow morning, then the moneyline will be removed and this play will automatically turn into a Secret Play. But the moneyline must be removed to discourage bettors from taking the 10, and instead opting for the underdog and the points because 10 for all intents and purposes is a game spread. I actually think that if the line hits 9.5, it will be removed. That is the only one that has athe potential to be a secret play. None of the others that you presented are anywhere near the criteria that would put the play in our favor when the average square thinks that they have the favor by taking the ignorant amount of points.
You have done tremendously outstanding research however, and I speaking on behalf of the board as a whole appreciate your dedication and resolve to bring us this information.
I think that the Southern Miss game is one that has a correct correlation. i don't now what the line movement on it is, but the game spread looks correct
The Secret Play works in college football at a 80% clip as well.Comment -
nonsense, the under is basically toast, but port is playing better, and i still have no problem with them covering the 10.5 spread...for what its worth.Comment -
Portland -6.5 for the 2nd half...books are basically saying they made a mistake setting the line at -10 and are resetting it at -7.5 here at the half based on how well the Clips have played...
You would think that the Clips would fade in the 2nd half as they did the other night when their lack of bench depth meets the Blazers deep bench...
but...I am not so sure...
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Whats up everybody no bets today I just cant put a stamp on anything latley, plus work and hotel= no capping time.
CK you got any prop gems for the NCAA tourney or NIT??Comment -
Well when we get to that point, shoe, i will definitely buzz you in. Right now it's time to master the college game as a whole, and find those gems and sleeper teams that will cash tickets later on. I guess when you really look at it, this is going back to the future as I have always been known to do.Comment -
I hear you on that one. But I am up 4 figures on the day. As such I am gonna get smart, punk out and fade my portland play with a send 1/2 bet on LA to guarantee my 4 figure cash out. No sense in pissin on a winner with greed. My goal has been met. My book will get a call bright and early in the morning. Gonna cash a nickel and let the rest build my roll, and go on about my business.Portland -6.5 for the 2nd half...books are basically saying they made a mistake setting the line at -10 and are resetting it at -7.5 here at the half based on how well the Clips have played...
You would think that the Clips would fade in the 2nd half as they did the other night when their lack of bench depth meets the Blazers deep bench...
but...I am not so sure...
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I love it CK just remember to fill me in slim???
Im playing the Spurs tommorow you can book me on that!Comment -
Thanks CK you know I am on it like dots on dice! The other teams (besides Creighton) were just examples of the relations of game point spreads and their correlating effects on 1st H and Game money lines and NOT (had to clarify for everyone) on the potential secret play list. Nite everyone!Comment -
I would've been done today if I could've got my 3 college plays in but I didn't make it to the casino in time suck cuz i would've been 4-0 on the day. Dam Clips will not go away on this one...I had the over actually so that's looking good but hitting both would be nice to end the PM.
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Yep...just like the other night...as long as they have this depleted lineup, need to fade them in the 2nd half ...especially if they manage to keep it close in the 1st half like they did tonight...left some money on the table there...ugh..Portland -6.5 for the 2nd half...books are basically saying they made a mistake setting the line at -10 and are resetting it at -7.5 here at the half based on how well the Clips have played...
You would think that the Clips would fade in the 2nd half as they did the other night when their lack of bench depth meets the Blazers deep bench...
but...I am not so sure...
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Nice end to the PM, ManBearPig,
Yes all, we had an eventful day where I went to the dark side and still came through it unscathed. The CK Mafia just don't stop. We will get them books tomorrow and hit em up with some more outstanding plays, and get the cash and let the recession pass us by like the wind. Time for this bar to be closed. The bar across town is still open late and I bet that if you get over there fast enough, then you can still get a cupfull.Comment -
Whoo Hoo!! New jersey and Houston lost but Marquette, phoenix, Oklahoma and Portland came through. My teaser with the; nets, Oklahoma and Portland lost but the parlay with Oklahoma -3 and the over 154 hit nicely.
2 weeks ago the bankroll was down 50%, since then I have struggled back and as of tonight I am almost double my bankroll. Granted, my bankroll is nowhere near CK’s but winning (big or small) still feels great.
I owe the come-back success to everyone here at SBR… some great info here and I am really looking forward to march madness JComment
