TPowell's Monday Plays (1/26)

kroyrunner89 · 01-25-09, 10:49 PM

why not more on oklahoma? what are you seeing there?

Tigers1230 · 01-25-09, 10:49 PM

agree with you on this TP. I don't get lines out on my book in the morning and I am hoping I can get it below 4 but I see its at -3 now. How high would you take this?

TPowell · 01-25-09, 10:52 PM

I'm really not sure, I NEVER buy points but for some reason I decided to buy the half here. -2.5 just really bothers me for some reason. It shouldnt get over -4 by the morning I dont think.

Kroy, I wanted to put more on Oklahoma but it seems so easy and I really hate making big rival games 10 or 15 unit plays

MrMonkey · 01-25-09, 10:53 PM

TPowell, was waiting to see your input on this one! No guarantees, but my money feels alot safer now! Can't lose at home, but I can see why you are buying the .5. Almost like waiting for your football team to win by field goal.

MrMonkey

kroyrunner89 · 01-25-09, 10:53 PM

makes sense, thank T, great stuff as usual i'm with you 100% on marquette. i have some friends who go to school there and i've been to a few of their games and i gotta say, i think they're very overrated. i think their road loss to tennessee is a good preview of what we'll be seeing tomorrow

infamousdx · 01-25-09, 11:04 PM

Great job today tpowell... hope you cash those 2 tomorrow!

Hanger · 01-25-09, 11:05 PM

Thanks for sharing, definately agree with the ND analysis. Just don't know if I will get in if its -4 in the AM. Don't know if I will be looking to buy points to get it from there.

Great picks today btw, liking watching your plays.

TPowell · 01-26-09, 02:36 AM

line has been dead still at -3 in the Notre Dame game, Oklahoma is up to -3.5 in the majority of the places I see.

CashMoney · 01-26-09, 11:17 AM

Following you on both plays with and a parlay for both to win.

WVUsuperfan · 01-26-09, 11:31 AM

I got the OK game at -3 1/2 bout an hour ago.. now is down to -2 1/2.. what gives?

jaymac82980 · 01-26-09, 11:34 AM

I saw that OK game drop too. Wondering if Griffin isn't playing, and we just havent heard it yet.

hajune · 01-26-09, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

15 Unit Play: Notre Dame (-2)
5 Unit Play: Oklahoma (-2.5)

I actually bought a half point on ND (from 2.5 to 2). The reasoning behind Notre Dame is pretty simple. Marquette has feasted on VERY weak teams in the Big East (which is hard to find). Marquette doesn't have what ND struggles with, which is a bonafide post presence. Inside, I think Harangody will be able to get whatever he wants. I like Marquette as a team, but they arent a top 5 Big East team in my mind. The only way Marquette wins this game is if they go off from deep and McAlarney struggles again for ND. The Joyce Center is a tough place to play and I dont see them dropping 2 straight. Notre Dame is in a must win situation basically while Marquette is undefeated in conference and is kind of freerolling more than likely. I'm sure they want to stay undefeated but Notre Dame is fighting for their lives. Guys like Zeller and the other freshman big Hillesland (sp?) are going to be able to get involved against Marquette because they arent as talented as UConn inside. I wouldn't like backing a team like Marquette in a hostile enviroment like they'll face tommorow.

You had a great day yesterday. Nice handicapping. You have an exceptional creative mind and work hard at handicapping. I admire that ! I had Louisville as my strong play of the day and I was glad you liked them also. I will be on the opposite side of you in the Notre Dame game. My SECONDARY reasons are because Marquette has been a great road team (60%+) and a great dog team (60%+) in the past 12 years and nothing suggests they have changed this year. They are 4-0 this year when the spread is at 3 or less. They are at their best facing the type of team has. Notre Dame seems to have gone into a mini slump lately. The recent weak schedule Marquette has had is not a bad thing at this time of year provided they have also played GOOD teams in the past. They will have some reserve energy for this game because of the weak schedule, and they have the ability to beat teams as good as Notre Dame on the road. Marqutte is one of my 5 favorite road teams as an underdog .They are 70-46 on the road and 78-51 as a dog in the past 12 years. That stat is meaningless unless the team's character and ability are roughly the same as in the past. I believe it is. Notre Dame is now favored by 3 to 3 1/2 and opened at -2. They may go to -4 . I got Marquette at a whooping +120 at Matchbook at +2 1/2.
It is hard to figure why but I will take it.
At any rate good fortune to you today

Dfjay9 · 01-26-09, 12:40 PM

I'm all over those 2 games. Lets win our money back.

Dfjay9 · 01-26-09, 12:41 PM

Hajune - IMO 12 years back is meaningless. The coaches were different. the players are different. I go back last 5 games generally and if I look into trends then it will be a senior team and no more than 3 years.

cocknocker · 01-26-09, 12:58 PM

I know that this ain't my set, but uh, I'm lookin' for this dude called the machine. Where is this guy?

Dana4U · 01-26-09, 01:00 PM

The Machine

CK - he has his own thread. You can probably find him in there!

Originally posted by cocknocker

I know that this ain't my set, but uh, I'm lookin' for this dude called the machine. Where is this guy?

kmarinouofm · 01-26-09, 02:10 PM

just something i found .... i am really split on this game

Marquette (+3) at *Notre Dame - 7:00 PM (e) - Knee-jerk reaction would be to side with desperate Irish, who not only had 45 game Joyce Center win streak stopped by UConn on Saturday, but have now lost three straight. However, what has been revealed by the three losses is ND's lack of speed, physical toughness beyond Harangody and less than stellar defense. With an exception of the physical play, these are things that will also compromise them vs a Marquette squad that puts relentless quickness against you on offense, pressures the ball deeply on the perimeter, and has an eighth man rotation that gives first year HC Buzz Williams a number of match-up options. On the other hand, the Irish very rarely go beyond the top six, and if anything, the recent slide seems to have exposed a tired core of players (Harangody 35 minutes, McAlarny 37, Jackson 35, Ayers 31) that couldn't have gotten much of a breather between brutal battle with the in-your-face Huskies on Saturday and tonight. In the meantime, The Golden Eagles have the added incentive of being tied atop the Big East at 6-0) with Louisville and come off less than demanding tilts with Providence and Depaul. In addition, Marquette has also shown the adaptability play open court and half court, getting half court minded West Virginia into an uncomfortable pace in a 75-53 home win, and slugging it out with N.C. State in a 68-65 win at Raleigh. The better team is getting points and the invincibility of the Joyce Center is gone.
=

carrenzo · 01-26-09, 02:23 PM

Bad Bet

I have this feeling that the book is going to clean house on this ND game. The reason spread is not moving because Marquette is being considered an underdog because of the home record.

On Marquette +3

TPowell · 01-26-09, 02:24 PM

only problem is that Marquette can't handle ND inside and if McAlarney is hot, I doubt Marquette will be able to stop him anway. Marquette hasn't played anybody yet though, they lost by 12 at Tennessee. The only decent win was that big blowout against WV, but that was at home and WV is no Notre Dame

sportsguy04 · 01-26-09, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by carrenzo

I have this feeling that the book is going to clean house on this ND game. The reason spread is not moving because Marquette is being considered an underdog because of the home record.

On Marquette +3

Why would the spread move? The whole world isnt on ND. Only 55% on ND. Line went up .5. No real big movement there.

Good luck tonight.

awhitejackson · 01-26-09, 02:28 PM

I like both of them....I should have realized that post presence of UCONN was going to kill me in that game with ND last week....Am tailing on both of these as my only 2 plays tonite....GL

MrMonkey · 01-26-09, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

only problem is that Marquette can't handle ND inside and if McAlarney is hot, I doubt Marquette will be able to stop him anway. Marquette hasn't played anybody yet though, they lost by 12 at Tennessee. The only decent win was that big blowout against WV, but that was at home and WV is no Notre Dame

if McAlarney is hot says it all, that's what I'm counting on and if so should cover. Good luck TPowell.

MrMonkey

TPowell · 01-26-09, 02:42 PM

Guy can't shoot that bad 3 games in a row, he's a true shooter

WestsidePete · 01-26-09, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

Guy can't shoot that bad 3 games in a row, he's a true shooter

Right on TPowell....and this is back to back home games just 2 days apart so familiar settings should lead to a better performance after a bad one.

Hanger · 01-26-09, 04:46 PM

I am on ND at -3, however, can ND maintain the run n gun that Marq might present? We have been talking about ND and their shooting % and Harangody having his way inside. Just curious on the take here? As i said before, I think ND is a better team, who has faced the best of the Big East as Marq enters into the tough stretch. Just curious.

Tigers1230 · 01-26-09, 05:03 PM

Yes, ND can maintain. I think Harrangody is going to attack strong to the rim now that he doesn't have a 7 footer squaring him up. They HAVE to stop the 3 ball from marquette. They know this is a must win game for them and I am hoping they play like it tonight. I am also not sold on OK this season, but I put a small wager on them.

khaden · 01-26-09, 06:25 PM

I was on the fence-but since last week TP and westside pete are money--it they like it I'm on it--let get some $$$$$

Fantastic weekend!

TPowell · 01-26-09, 10:01 PM

honeymoons over guys, gotta fight to stay close to even these next few days. I'm the streakiest **** you've ever seen. Sorry to those that followed

MrMonkey · 01-26-09, 10:21 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

honeymoons over guys, gotta fight to stay close to even these next few days. I'm the streakiest **** you've ever seen. Sorry to those that followed

Nothing to be sorry about! Your top plays are Gold! Can't win them all.
I was so sure about ND tonight and so wrong! Kyle couldn't get loose for any free looks? You keep up the hard work, it produces winners and will continue to do so!

MrMonkey

kroyrunner89 · 01-26-09, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

honeymoons over guys, gotta fight to stay close to even these next few days. I'm the streakiest **** you've ever seen. Sorry to those that followed

yeah what are your 15 unit plays now 13-2? man what inconsistency. you have nothin to be sorry for, keep the great work up its only one loss

007Fatty · 01-26-09, 10:39 PM

lol yea dude great job. i just find it funny how your 15 unit lost and your 5 unit is winning right noww:P

TPowell · 01-26-09, 10:43 PM

yeah lol, Oklahoma was a 10 unit play that I downgraded because of how big a rivalry they have with OSU. Two point game now though

hajune · 01-27-09, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by Dfjay9

Hajune - IMO 12 years back is meaningless. The coaches were different. the players are different. I go back last 5 games generally and if I look into trends then it will be a senior team and no more than 3 years.

You are very very wrong about that. When I look for information I am not looking for trends. Trends will get you in nothing but trouble and should be advoided at all costs. I am looking for cause and effect relationships that gives merit to teams playing with the same personality year after year. Franchises and college teams develop certain personalities through the years and unless the character of management changes the teams react in roughly the same manner year after year. Do you think that Kansas City will do better then the Yankees in the next 20 years? I don't think so! They will have different players but the results will likely be about the same. However I did think that the Red Sox would emerge as a powerhouse in this era after stumbling for genrations. They hired and allowed the gifted Bill James to start picking players that had winning backgrounds. At that point they BROKE AWAY from past history. It was his thinking processes and genious that changed the character of Boston. On the other hand the Notre Dame recent streak at home has little merit. They are NOT the same team as they have been in the last 3 years and are underacheivers this year. To play Notre Dame because of their recent past history at home is a fallacy. They will lose more games at home this year. The key is too watch for character and ability changes of a given team. If that does not change results from 12 years ago have merit. You can not flip a coin 300 times and get one side to turn up 60% of the time in that run. The odds are astronimical . When a team wins 60% of the time against the spread in a 300 game period pay attention. It is not luck nor a trend.

PittChicGambles · 01-27-09, 12:12 AM

Love the write up hajune...