my thoughts exactly on nevada flav....I wish that game was in an hour not in 13 hours...Nevada is much better than Hawaii who does lose to good fundamental teams..such as getting a beat down by Boise St at home
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Wow, here's something to look at. Why is Montana, 2nd place in the Big Sky and one of the best defensive teams in conference, a 3 point dog at Northern Arizona, who is 1 rung up the ladder from Sac. St.?
This seems like a trapper's delight to me. This line is just begging to have people unload on Montana.Comment -
Adding this ml parlay -167 for a unit
UConn
Texas
TennComment -
Here are some others that caught my attention I am looking further into.
-South Carolina(One of the best teams in the SEC)
-Vanderbilt(10 may be an inflated line for Tenn to cover due to 30 point beat down they gave Georgia last Wednesday. Vandy is not Georgia.)
-Florida(Need to think about this one as 10 is a lot to cover on the road, but UGA is putrid. All depends on what kind of start UGA gets off to. If they get down early they will give up and it will be a blowout. But being homecourt they may just stay in the game).
-Texas
-Air Force(19 1/2 is a ridiculous number to cover against an Air Force team that shortens the game and minimizes possessions. If Utah gets in control of this one hard to see them blowing it out 2h versus just playing out the string where AF backdoors the line in the last 5-7 minutes.
-Denver(This team is schizo. They have been dominating at home but yet they can't win on the road, with the longest D-1 losing road streak at like 30 or 40 games. 8.5 is a lot to lay, so may be a play here).
-Rice
-Princeton(Got their butts handed to them by Yale last night, but today they get a chance at redemption against a Brown team they should take it out on.)
-Northern Iowa(line looks trappish but UNI just finds a way to win the game. They need this W to stay on top in the conference standings and they were finally beaten 2 games ago, the pressure of the win streak is off, and they responded last game by blowing out their opponent. It was too much pressure with that 13 game win streak).
-Pepperdine(I've been playing these guys the past couple of weeks. They are getting better every week, and now have straight up wins against San Francisco and Santa Clara, both as good size dogs. Same deal here today, dog at home who I think at least covers if not wins straight up. San Diego just lost to Marymount, and isn't that good to begin with. This line is off and only because of perceptions. Obviously Pepperdine won't be the sexy pick and seems like a huge risk, but I think it could be one of the best plays of the day.)
-Portland(they just drilled St. Mary's, so I assume payback is awaiting, but 9 points is a lot to a Portland team that imo is the 2nd best in the conference behind Gonzaga. I know Mary's probably wants to atone for their beatdown at the hands of Portland right after losing Mills, but Mary's just had a huge home game against the Zags and just fell short. Not sure if they can get up like that again 2 days after that game.
-Florida Atlantic(another unpopular no name brand pick, but although FAU is putrid they've got guards, 1 in particular, that can score like crazy. I have to look more into S.Alabama, but 9 1/2 is alot to give this FAU team that can score.Comment -
good stuff flav....am i seeing this right?? most of the money is on Purdue but they have dropped from -6.5 to -5 correct??Comment -
second ml parlay -172 to win one unit
UTEP
LSU
Miami-Ohio
Austin PeayComment -
adding...
Miss St +3.5 one unit
UCF ml -120 one unitComment -
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic line is inflated. Should be somewhere around +195. South Alabama has a hard time covering big spreads. And they are schizophrenic. So it depends on which South Alabama team shows up. Florida Atlantic likes to surprise people. I think this is a good pay + the points.Comment -
adding 1.5 units on Portland +9Comment -
adding Nevada ML -130 for 1.5 units....last play tonite GL guysComment -
ended up having a good night record wise but didn't win that much...but I'll take it.....went 7-3 on sides with one push....2-1 ml parlays for +1.2 units overall...
2009 YTD +17.33 units
204-140 sides
12-12 ml parlaysComment -
any leans pete?Comment -
leans so far for Sunday.... Duquesne +1....actually have booked this one already....still looking at others...I think this is the best one todayComment -
Illinois -675 20.25 to win 3
Clemson -365 10.95 to win 3
Butler -2650 79.5 to win 3
Buffalo -200 6 to win 3
South Florida +13 1/2 -110 3.3 to win 3
Akron -695 20.95 to win 3
Drexel -550 17.5 to win 3
Northwestern -180 5.4 to win 3
Illinois Chicago -103 3.09 to win 3
Duke -310 9.3 to win 3
Bowling Green -1050 31.5 to win 3
Illinois State +3 -140 4.2 to win 3
Miami Florida +8 1/2 -110 3.3 to win 3
Arizona State -305 9.15 to win 3
Rider +3 -131 3.93 to win 3Comment -
Sunday Feb 15 plays
two units
Duquense +1 LOSS
1.5 units
Notre Dame -12.5 (bought 1) LOSS
one unit
Indiana +11 LOSS
Michigan +5 WIN
Louisville -19.5 (bought 2) WIN
BC +8.5 (bought 1) WIN
Ill St +1 WIN
Miami +8.5 WIN
USC +8 (bought 1) LOSS
1/2 unit
Illinois/Indiana under 124 WIN
2 team ml parlay -160 one unit LOSS
Clemson
UNCComment -
taking dogs the rest of the day....one unit each
BC +8.5
Ill St +1
Miami +8.5
USC +8Comment -
GL Pete. Talk about a tailspin for me. Went 1 and 9 yesterday losing with Purdue (by 2), Uconn (by 1 1/2) Syr (by 1/2) Nev (by 1) Baylor (by 1 1/2) Prov (by 1 1/2) Cinci (by 1/2) etc. Talk about snake bit.
Had Duq, Buf, ND, Clem, and Ill early. 1-4 WTF. On the Dukies right now and probably go with Mia and USC. I'm leaning Drake so you should be good with ISU.
Thanks for letting me vent in your thread.
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A halftime edge I found
I've been trying to learn how to hedge game plays with halftime plays. It has been tough, but I think I found something finally.
If a team is behind at the half and the 2H line is minus the points then take that team on the money line. For the last several days this has hit at an amazing clip.
It is working so well I am considering doing it exclusively.Comment -
ended up going 6-4 on side and 0-1 ml parlay....ended up making nothing though with the parlay losing...
2009 YTD +17.33
210-144 sides
12-13 ml parlaysComment -
Plays for Monday Feb 16....First off I think we'll see how Dyson will be missed tonite for UConn. He wasn't needed last game but may be the difference here, as I think Pitt can win. Blair avg's 5.8 offensive boards per game...#1 in the country and should be able to neutralize Thabeet's dominance in the middle...foul trouble, guard play and how each team shoots from the outside will determain today's winner. I also like Texas A&M to win at home....something is wrong with how Texas closes games...had a good lead vs both Mizzo and Nebraska and lose and almost the same thing vs Colorado...now they are at their in state rival who needs this game bad and are 13-2 at home. Finally I like App St at home...they have been outscored 60-4 off of turnovers the past two games...28 to's last game alone...incredible numbers but only lost by 5 in each game as they shot over 50% and are the #1 rebounding team in their league...I think they can pull it together and come away with a win at home in this one.
one unit each
Pitt +3 WIN
Texas A&M +2 WIN
App St +1 LOSSComment -
Ended up 2-1 today...if only Appt St didn't give up that 3 at the end
...but Pitt and Texas A&M came thru...+0.9 unit today
2009 YTD +18.23 units
212-145 sides
12-13 ml parlaysComment -
Pete, if I could go 2-1 five nights a week I be very happy. Good job my friend! Leaning MichSt. +3 if Morgan plays? Kentucky also but think they need Patterson this game? Any early opinions? Thanks!
MrMonkey
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I was leaning Mich St immediately..but now not so sure...will look a little longer at the game...maybe Hummel 100% healthy....Morgan not?? changes everything if that's the case...same thing with Kentucky...they need Patterson...strong leans on Bradley -6.5 and Ohio +6.5Comment -
Plays for Tuesday Feb 17...first off since I'm no longer playing teaser I will buy pts on plays....I know this isn't very popular but I have cashed several plays in the last week alone by doing this...the strongest play today without buying pts IMO is the Purdue ML ...Hummel has said he is now near 100% so I'd think a better game is coming at home tonite from him, if not shooting at least rebounding for sure...Morgan is not at full strength but will play...Purdue's defense is very solid and at home here I think they can win.
One unit each
Purdue ml -140 WIN
Austin Peay ml -120 WIN
Ohio +8 (bought 1.5) LOSS
Bradley -6 (bought 1) WIN
Clemson -8 (bought 2.5) WIN
New Mexico +7 LOSSComment -
BOL Pete really like the ML playsComment -
Adding one late play with New Mexico +7 for a unitComment -
Bradley cashes
....4-1 so far....hopefuly New Mexico shows up to finish the night off right...
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Ended up 4-2 on sides today for +1.6 units...
2009 YTD +19.83 units
216-147 sides 59.5 % winners
12-13 ml parlaysComment -
early leans for Wednesday....
Miami-Ohio +3
Houston -5.5
Penn St +9.5
Miss St -2.5
Notre Dame +9Comment -
My strongest play is Miami-Ohio
and have already booked a unit at +3
They have already beat Akron at home by 13 and outrebounded them 46-31..through 11 conf games Akron gets outrebounded by 2 boards a game...even at home they get outrebounded...while the opposite for Miami where they outrebound opps by 4 a game..and an the edge on the road as well....offensive/defensive stats matchup very similiar for each team...so I like the rebounding advantage here and for Miami-Oh to steal a win or a close coverComment
