Remember...AZ St shut UCLA down offensively..the last team to do that...I believe no FG's made for a 13 min stretch...I hope ND can get up to +4 ...that will be enough I think...I know, doesn't look like a great play but they are at home getting pts...otherwise I wouldn't play it...
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Remember...AZ St shut UCLA down offensively..the last team to do that...I believe no FG's made for a 13 min stretch...I hope ND can get up to +4 ...that will be enough I think...I know, doesn't look like a great play but they are at home getting pts...otherwise I wouldn't play it...Comment -
ok pete. just fun bet at hdcp -6 , and small bet at over 127. tyComment -
ND just hit 4.Comment -
Plays for Thursday...the main one is Gonzaga. I've seen both these teams several times and won a lot with St Mary's when Patty Mills was healthy. His injury is huge...they were rolling at Gonzaga until his injury, and things went bad fast. They covered late in that one but that was because the line was 10. Since that game St Mary's has lost 2 of 3...both by 18 pts when they were favs in each one. I just don't see how they can win today. Also, Notre Dame all factors against them, but one fact still remains they could have and should have won the first meeting on the road between these teams. At home, plus pts...I'll take it. Also, look at Golden St guys...Someone posted in another thread that the opening line was +1 for them last night and moved to -2 immediately...it's now -3...I took it at -2 and bought a pt for -1 and put 2 units on it. Also, George Mason..look at my writeup earlier in the thread ...I think this is an excellent spot for them and they have been golden on the road going 6-2 ATS so far this year.
3 units
Gonzaga -3.5 (bought 1/2) LOSS ***FUKK YOU AND YOUR MISSED FT'S!!!***
two units
Arizona -2 (bought 1/2) WIN
one unit
George Mason -5.5 (bought 1/2) LOSS
St Joes -1.5 LOSS
Notre Dame +4 WIN
Northwestern +3 sec h LOSS
3 team ml parlay -106 one unit WIN
Davidson
Tenn Martin
Gonzaga
NBA play
Golden St -1 (bought 1) 2 units WINComment -
Certainly not trying to change your mind Pete as this is more of a hunch. Irish absolutely should have beaten Louisville earlier in the year. They seem like a completely different team now since their first home loss to Connecticut on 1/24. Then another to Marquette at home and they were in a tailspin. Swagger is gone, Harongody is pressing as no one else steps up. McAlarney not hitting 3's or any other shots for that matter. At this point, they are playing not to lose rather than to win as was evidence against Pitt and Cinci. The UCLA game? They never had a chance. I may sit this one out as I am actually still liking ND, even with all of my reasons not to. BOL on the rest of the card as well. As usual we're on the same sides.Comment -
Thx OC....ND probably losses but IMO the only play is either them or nothing...I backed off AZ St for now as I like Arizona to beat USC at home as a better play...but won't make a final decision until much later on either Arizona games...and will probably add the over in the Utah St/Idaho game...Comment -
Good Luck Pete like the GonzagaComment -
One more play....added Arizona -2 (bought 1/2) for two units...the more I look at it the more I like it...and I'm saying away from UCLA/AZ St...Comment -
adding a unit on NWestern +3 sec h....Comment -
So let's see...my first 3 picks....St Joes...GMason...Notre Dame...and ND is the one winner???
Comment -
FUKK ZAGA .....that 3 and 5 missed ft's in the last minute unfukking real...could have had a huge day if they covered and if NWestern could have covered the sec half....oh well...ended up 3-4 on sides...1-0 ml parlay and down 1.1 unit today
2009 YTD +14.33 units
195-135 sides 59.1% winners
10-11 ml parlays
21-31 teasers
on to tomorrow....Comment -
Well ...what can fukking happen on Friday the 13th?? god damn you know some crazy shiiit will happen that's what....so far I've got West Virginia -2 (bought 2)...will write up later about it...looking at others...would like to find two more and that's it....Comment -
We're screwed WSP, I'm heavy on WV too. I'll pass on the night so you can win
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Good luck Pete! I look for insight from you, TPowell, and you buddy Sportsguy who I miss! Did you know him personally?
MrMonkey
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No didn't know him personally but sportsguy was great...he came on board last year always open to hearing what others had to say and he knew his stuff....Comment -
Man...the past two days have been frustrating but playing just a couple tomorrow may be what we need....Comment -
Sorry to add one more Pete but thought it might be appropriate for today (yesterday) from Vegas Vacation: "Why don't you give me half the money, we'll go out back, I'll kick you in the nuts and we'll call it a day." GL Friday and the weekend.Comment -
Dwyane Anderson is questionable for tonite's game....
Nova's Anderson has bone bruise
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Associated Press
VILLANOVA, Pa. -- Villanova forward Dwyane Anderson has a bone bruise and a hyperextended left knee and is questionable for the No. 13 Wildcats' game against West Virginia.
Anderson, who averages 7.5 points and 5.6 rebounds for the Wildcats, was hurt in Tuesday's win over Marquette. He was injured early in the second half and did not return.
Villanova (20-4 overall, 8-3 Big East) has a six-game winning streak going into Friday night's game against the Mountaineers (16-8 overall, 5-6 Big East).Comment -
Friday the 13th plays...
3 units
West Virginia -2 (bought 2) WIN
2 units
Cornell -14.5 WIN
1 unit
Rider -9.5 LOSS
Brown ml -130 LOSS
3 team teaser one unit LOSS
Cornell -7.5
Rider -3
Ill Chicago +19.5Comment -
Pete-
What resources are you using to research/cap Ivy league games? I typically avoid these as I feel like I'm throwing at a dart board when picking a side to play. Ivy league is just a different animal than the rest of D-1 hoops.Comment -
With you on WVU (-4), Rider and Brown...I think we all need a big night after last nights disaster...That Gonzaga game could have kept my losses minimal but the ending was really fukked...Oh well onto tonite
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Well...both big ones came thru with West Virginia and Cornell....ended up 2-2 on sides 0-1 on teaser but +1.8 units on the day.. after going 21-32 on teasers since January 1, I will no longer play them..killing my profit but will continue with ml parlays...
2009 YTD +16.13 units
197-137 sides 59.0 % winners
10-11 ml parlaysComment -
Lines that I believe are off
Montana State -6. I'm not saying that Montana State is a top tier team. But only spotting Sac State 6 points? The line should be more like -11.
La Salle vs St. Joes. La Salle has been really tough lately. I figure they should be a fav playing at home. Instead they are getting 6 1/2 points.
I'll post some more of these tomorrow, but these two stuck out.Comment -
Plays for Saturday February 14...will add more thru out the day
Two units
Georgia Tech one -1.5 and one -3.5 LOSS
1.5 units
Baylor ml -230 WIN
Nevada ml -130 WIN
Portland +9 LOSS
one unit
Syracuse -3.5 (bought 1) WIN
Baylor -3.5 (bought 1) WIN
Wake Forrest -7.5 (bought 1) WIN
Alabama +2 PUSH
Miss St +3.5 LOSS
UCF ml -120 WIN
Ohio St/Wisc under 129 WIN
3 team ml parlay -167 one unit WIN
UConn
Texas
Tenn
4 team ml parlay -172 to win one unit LOSS
UTEP
LSU
Miami-Ohio
Austin Peay
2 team ml parlay -303 to win 1/2 unit WIN
UTEP
New Mexico StComment -
leans ....
UCF +2
Nevada -2
3 team ml parlay
UCONN
MISSOURI
TEXASComment -
Checkin out the card Pete ... looks solid right now. Had Butler, WV and the over, and a stupid flyer on Loyola Chicago yesterday. Eased the pain from Thurs a little. Nice day. Thanks for makin me think a bit about WV. Almost had a no play on that. Nova was never an option.Comment -
Favs where there is large value in the line
I find value by calculating what the line should be then comparing that to the lines that are being offered. These favs have value in their lines because the actual line is better than the value line I calculated. I filtered this list for teams that have a win probability >= 80%. These are sorted by the % found by dividing the delta between the actual line and the value line by the value line, in other words the % of how much better the actual line is. I love Utah State here because the win probability is very high, Utah State is a great team and there is large value in the line.
utah st. -170
brigham young -300
davidson -2400 Win
arkansas little rock -185
montana st. -250
kentucky -185 Win
memphis -900
santa clara -820
gonzaga -2000
purdue -220 Win
connecticut -500 Win
florida -550 Lost
niagara -220
texas -700 Win
san diego -260
wright st. -800
utah -3300 Win
miami oh -700
washington st. -750
I don't lay points so I am playing all these on the money line. I have also found that buying 3 points or using teams like these in teasers works well. Also money line parlays work well.Comment -
big dogs where there is large value in the line
I filtered this list with pythag >= .5. Top tier teams have a pythag >= .8 and scrub teams have a pythag <= .3. Teams above .5 are usually pretty decent. Getting a line with large value in it on a team like this is usually a pretty sweet deal. These are sorted by how much the line is bigger than it should be. For example, St John's should be +700 but they are +1400.
I always play these on the money line with the a 2X hedge on the spread.
st. john's 1400
texas tech 1440 Loss
cincinnati 1300 Covered
mississippi 620
rutgers 570
st. louis 550 Covered
iowa st. 470 Loss
vanderbilt 470 Loss
nebraska 570 Loss
richmond 400
portland 400
florida st. 350 Loss
wisconsin green bay 248
evansville 215 Loss
ohio st. 220
la salle 215 Win
stanford 228
northeastern 214 Loss
oregon st. 620Comment -
dogs that should be favs
This category has done very well this year. These are teams that should be laying points but instead are getting points. The win probability for these are all > 50%. The pythag for these are mostly >.75, There is one .6 and one .5.
virginia commonwealth +100 -259 Loss
georgetown +175 -153 Covered
wisconsin milwaukee +101 -196
minnesota +125 -163 Loss
north carolina st. +155 -131 Win
portland st. +118 -134
virginia tech +145 -102 Loss
mississippi st. +115 -122 Loss
The first number is the actual line, the second number is the value line. The best value in this group is VCU, they should be a fav of -259, but instead are a dog of +100.Comment -
thx curious....like VCU a lot here and on the ml plays I already had some strong leans...time to get back into the ml parlay business on those as wellComment -
Pete-
I like Nevada stood out to you. The better teams in that conference typically take care of business against Hawaii @ Hawaii this year. IMHO Hawaii is not a good fundamental team, and teams that play together usually dismantle them. Playground games Hawaii can win all day long.
Given the recent blowouts Hawaii has had at home against fresno and idaho, I think there is great value in this line for Nevada. Hawaii at home catching points should have people all over Hawaii given their recent blowouts.
Curious-
I have been following Sac. St. for a little while now as I took them against Portland st. and also had under in the game against Montana. I did a little reading, and the reason why the line for Montana St. is only 6 is because Montana st. typically doesn't play well at Sacramento.
Montanta st. just lost to N.Arizona on the road(another cellar dweller) and now goes to Sacramento, where they have dropped 2 straight and 8 of their last 9. It appears Sacramento has their number at home.
I actually am thinking about Sac here. Montana st. is the 2nd worst FT shooting team in conference(65%), which is not good for covering down the stretch if the game is close. Also Sacramento St. the last 2 games has employed a slow down strategy(against Port. St. & Mont. St.) in order to shorten the game and limit possessions for the opponent, as they knew they were outmatched. It worked for a little while against Port, but it worked most of the game against Montana as they were in that game almost to the end.
What I took away from that info was to play under on the last Sac. St. game which hit easily. I suspect probably a similiar strategy today from Sac. St. and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them win this game SU or if not then cover.
-6 is just going to entice Mont. St. action given Sac's record.
Thoughts guys?Comment
