Fri, Dec 26 Play

MilfDriller · 12-24-08, 11:49 AM

So given your accounting system that's not $300, right?

I'm just trying to help out the impressionable youngsters who might be confused by your misrepresentations and think this is 'realism'.

curious · 12-24-08, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by MilfDriller

So given your accounting system that's not $300, right?

I'm just trying to help out the impressionable youngsters who might be confused by your misrepresentations and think this is 'realism'.

As I have been doing every day for two years, my posts are units, not $. Each reader needs to use the Kelly Criterion to determine what $ amount to assign to a unit. I have given this advice at least twenty times. What my $ per unit is is none of your goddammed business.

Not sure what "misrepresentations" you are talking about shithead. Don't you have anything better to do than harass me?

Can we see your posted picks and your record?

I'm here to discuss handicapping. If you have anything constructive to add, we will read it. If not go back to your mother's basement and leave me the **** alone.

Snevens88 · 12-24-08, 01:58 PM

haa. ownedd by curioussss. get em C

curious · 12-24-08, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by Snevens88

haa. ownedd by curioussss. get em C

I mean if everyone wants me to start giving out picks using a 1 to 10 unit size instead of 10 to 300 I will. I just don't see what the big deal is. But, I use 10,20,40,50,100,150,200,225,250, and 300. Oh, and sometimes I use 600. That doesn't translate very well to a unit system starting at 1. I would rather not change what I am doing.

Snevens88 · 12-24-08, 02:21 PM

hey man if what works for u is workin...by all means **** all the haters and keep at it

MilfDriller · 12-24-08, 03:10 PM

Snevens, the only one getting owned is you for falling for this foolishness. 45,000 units to make 300 units. lmao

Pure comedy. Like I said, there are millions upon millions of impressionable people without the capacity to reason and think clearly. And this is why car salesman and politicians dig out their own special nitch... preying on the impressionable who don't know any better.

ebbearsfb1 · 12-24-08, 05:30 PM

milf driller first off that a dumb name but besides that hes not really trying to fool ne body, hes not telling everybody he just putting out his opinion and for the most part he does a great job.

at least if ur gonna talk shit have a contest with curious then. just like the guys r doing in nba forum

see whos better at posting cause no one sees you posting picks on here

curious · 12-24-08, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

milf driller first off that a dumb name but besides that hes not really trying to fool ne body, hes not telling everybody he just putting out his opinion and for the most part he does a great job.

at least if ur gonna talk shit have a contest with curious then. just like the guys r doing in nba forum

see whos better at posting cause no one sees you posting picks on here

I have a standing offer to shit talkers. I make my picks, they fade my picks and match my action $ for $. Someone we both trust holds the money. No one ever takes me up on this offer. Hmmmm, wonder why if I am as lame as the shit talkers claim.

blackNgoldjuice · 12-24-08, 06:43 PM

I thought Gonzaga wiped you out last night?

demize21 · 12-24-08, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by curious

I have a standing offer to shit talkers. I make my picks, they fade my picks and match my action $ for $. Someone we both trust holds the money. No one ever takes me up on this offer. Hmmmm, wonder why if I am as lame as the shit talkers claim.

i i still think you make good picks some of those large ML ones too much for too little other than that i say F**k all the haters and keep doing what you do i have my own interpretation for a unit to me when i post 1 unit is 100 dollars 1.1 ia 110 and so on who cares if someone puts 50000000000000000000units

maybey they are jealous who knows the stalker must like you giving all the attention BOL curious i know personally ive mademore money folllowing some of your picks than lost so keep up the GOOD WORK!!!!!

losturmarbles · 12-24-08, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by curious

Connecticut -12 -110 330 units to win 300 units

...

curious i think you were looking at the 1st half line, unless this is a 1h play

conn is fav by 23.5

merry xmas

curious · 12-24-08, 07:58 PM

Originally posted by blackNgoldjuice

I thought Gonzaga wiped you out last night?

Nope, after I calculated YTD I was up >3000 units. I was a bit surprised, but it is what it is.

curious · 12-24-08, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

curious i think you were looking at the 1st half line, unless this is a 1h play

conn is fav by 23.5

merry xmas

Covers has all the Las Vegas books at -12. Quick get on a plane and HAMMER that line!! LOL

Seriously, I cancelled that play. I don't think anyone should be giving Fairfield 24 points.

Beachbum64 · 12-24-08, 08:12 PM

I agree

[quote=curious;1333512]I have a standing offer to shit talkers. I make my picks, they fade my picks and match my action $ for $. Someone we both trust holds the money. No one ever takes me up on this offer. Hmmmm, wonder why if I am as lame as the shit talkers claim.[/quo

Hey don't worry about all the trash OK I have been a handi capper for 25 years and you have tought me something about the money line OK you may have gone a little overboard !!!!! with the Gonazga and Colorado bet but all in all you have been on the mark I have always won and lost by stats!!!! with a real for feel for the line for favorites but I have learned a lot from ya keep up the good work
we all lose the BIG ONE

curious · 12-24-08, 08:25 PM

[QUOTE=Beachbum64;1333814]

Originally posted by curious

I have a standing offer to shit talkers. I make my picks, they fade my picks and match my action $ for $. Someone we both trust holds the money. No one ever takes me up on this offer. Hmmmm, wonder why if I am as lame as the shit talkers claim.[/quo

Hey don't worry about all the trash OK I have been a handi capper for 25 years and you have tought me something about the money line OK you may have gone a little overboard !!!!! with the Gonazga and Colorado bet but all in all you have been on the mark I have always won and lost by stats!!!! with a real for feel for the line for favorites but I have learned a lot from ya keep up the good work
we all lose the BIG ONE

The thing that made me absolutely sick was that my model said that the play was Portland State, but I kept looking at the fav team name GONZAGA and I let my personal bias interfere. Here is the model's prediction from the spreadsheet:
Team........(actual line).....pythag...(value line)..(win probability)....(value delta%)
Portland St.........................0.73......... ..................2.66%
Gonzaga............-5000.........0.99.......-3662...........97.34%...............-28%

Since the actual line is < the value line and the value delta % is negative for Gonzaga, then Portland State was the play. And since there is such a large difference between the value line and the actual line, the proper play was Portland St + the points and Portland St moneyline.

But, I just started playing these ML favs a week or two ago. So, I am learning too.

No matter what anyone says 40-3 (on ML > -200) isn't too shabby.

Beachbum64 · 12-24-08, 10:00 PM

[quote=curious;1333837]

Originally posted by Beachbum64

The thing that made me absolutely sick was that my model said that the play was Portland State, but I kept looking at the fav team name GONZAGA and I let my personal bias interfere. Here is the model's prediction from the spreadsheet:
Team........(actual line).....pythag...(value line)..(win probability)....(value delta%)
Portland St.........................0.73......... ..................2.66%
Gonzaga............-5000.........0.99.......-3662...........97.34%...............-28%

Since the actual line is < the value line and the value delta % is negative for Gonzaga, then Portland State was the play. And since there is such a large difference between the value line and the actual line, the proper play was Portland St + the points and Portland St moneyline.

But, I just started playing these ML favs a week or two ago. So, I am learning too.

No matter what anyone says 40-3 (on ML > -200) isn't too shabby.

I agree !!!! in this game you are always learning!!!

zackattack · 12-25-08, 10:02 AM

[quote=curious;1333837]

Originally posted by Beachbum64

The thing that made me absolutely sick was that my model said that the play was Portland State, but I kept looking at the fav team name GONZAGA and I let my personal bias interfere. Here is the model's prediction from the spreadsheet:
Team........(actual line).....pythag...(value line)..(win probability)....(value delta%)
Portland St.........................0.73......... ..................2.66%
Gonzaga............-5000.........0.99.......-3662...........97.34%...............-28%

Since the actual line is < the value line and the value delta % is negative for Gonzaga, then Portland State was the play. And since there is such a large difference between the value line and the actual line, the proper play was Portland St + the points and Portland St moneyline.

But, I just started playing these ML favs a week or two ago. So, I am learning too.

No matter what anyone says 40-3 (on ML > -200) isn't too shabby.

your scoring model is crap.......i have charted your ppicks now for over 2 weeks ever since you claimed to have gone 10-0 about 3 weeks a go........since then you have been horrible and the proof is you resorted to playing moneyline favorites in every game...which everybody knows is a losing way to bet. and to think anybody would risk 45000 units to win 300 is the dumbest bet i have ever seen. fade curious and win......its that simple!!!!

jayc88 · 12-25-08, 03:53 PM

i've heard you're sometimes even using 15000 untis on a game

curious · 12-25-08, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by jayc88

i've heard you're sometimes even using 15000 untis on a game

Yes, that was my biggest loss this year.
My unit sizes are always made "to win" and I like playing big favs on the ML so the number of units risked can be quite higher than 10-600.

My record for favs on the ML, since I started playing them, where the fav is > -150 is 49-4. All of these picks were posted before the game started.

curious · 12-26-08, 01:53 AM

Finally got the right lines on this..play is Fairfield

Fairfield +24 -110 330 to win 300
Fairfield +3000 100 to win 3000

Betweiser · 12-26-08, 03:14 PM

Take Houston +1 (-115)

frostno98 · 12-26-08, 04:17 PM

If tou had to bet, Uconn would be the play here. Fairfield hasn't played since two Sundays ago, so their shooting should be off due to gametime rust. For teams like Fairfield, every shot they make has to count to give them a shot at covering. Unlike Uconn who will probably getting easy baskets off of transition and steals. A team struggling to shoot vs a hometeam who will be getting easy buckets is why Uconn will be the right play to cover the -23.5.

I would shy away from this game though when you got a plethora of NBA games today, with more favorable lines to play on instead.

curious · 12-26-08, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by frostno98

If tou had to bet, Uconn would be the play here. Fairfield hasn't played since two Sundays ago, so their shooting should be off due to gametime rust. For teams like Fairfield, every shot they make has to count to give them a shot at covering. Unlike Uconn who will probably getting easy baskets off of transition and steals. A team struggling to shoot vs a hometeam who will be getting easy buckets is why Uconn will be the right play to cover the -23.5.

I would shy away from this game though when you got a plethora of NBA games today, with more favorable lines to play on instead.

Fairfield covers easily and stays close till the end of the game. That's why I have them on the ML. Everyone talked this stuff about my Buffalo vs UConn pick too and Buffalo covered easily and almost won.

ZXCVBNM · 12-26-08, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by curious

Fairfield covers easily and stays close till the end of the game. That's why I have them on the ML. Everyone talked this stuff about my Buffalo vs UConn pick too and Buffalo covered easily and almost won.

Buffalo was at home. Fairfield has lost to 3 top 25 opponents by 25+ already.

curious · 12-26-08, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by ZXCVBNM

Buffalo was at home. Fairfield has lost to 3 top 25 opponents by 25+ already.

How about we let the players decide this one, okay? I made my pick. Now I wait to see what happens.

curious · 12-26-08, 08:52 PM

Fairfield covers!!!

We fall a few baskets short on the ML, but we will take the cover!!!

Fairfield!!!