TPowell's Monday Plays

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  • TPowell
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-21-08
    • 18842

    #1
    TPowell's Monday Plays
    Wichita State (+2) at TCU

    TCU is currently riding a 5 game winning streak, but the competition has been less than stellar. The only decent wins were a road win at Colorado and a win against SMU. I’d go out on a limb and say that neither of those teams are as good as the last 4 teams Wichita State has played. Before I get to Wichita, we’ll take a look at TCU’s 3 losses. Those losses include a home loss to Nebraska by 12 points and neutral court losses against Charleston and Clemson. Wichita State is 1-3 in its last 4 games, but they have been VERY competitive in every game. The last game was a 3 point road loss to a very underrated Texas Tech team. Wichita State really shined in their pre-season tournament. They played Michigan State to an 8 point game and could have very well kept the game closer to 2-3 points if they weren’t outrebounded 22-39. A close win over Siena is also very impressive. As a 15.5 point underdog to Georgetown, Wichita didn’t back down and the game ended 50-58. Wichita covered the spread in ALL 4 of those games. The scary thing about Wichita is their ability to rebound the basketball. They’ve outrebounded the opponent by DOUBLE DIGITS in every game, except for the Michigan State game. Wichita State is well prepared for this road game because they have already played tough games like at Texas Tech and neutral site games like Georgetown and Michigan State. TCU on the other hand hasn’t really faced a tough opponent yet and I think that will come back to bite them against a very game Wichita State team.






    San Jose State at San Diego (-11.5)

    This could be a reach considering there are only 3 lined games I see right now, but I really think San Diego will lay the wood to San Jose State. Anybody that loses to Presbyterian and Santa Clara back-to-back is pretty awful. A win over a D-? team and an 8 point win at South Dakota State doesn’t make me think otherwise. In SJS’s only real game at Nebraska, they were beat 46-63. San Diego is no world beater by any means, but they aren’t a bad team and usually play pretty well at home. All 4 of their losses have come away from home against quality opponents. Wisconsin and Miami (FL) are both top 25 teams that San Diego didn’t have much of a chance against on a neutral court. They lost at UNLV by 5 early in the season, but they did cover the spread. San Diego has handled their business in the 4 wins though. A 14 point win over Nevada really impresses me. They beat Valpo by 7 on a neutral court which isn’t too bad. A comfy win over a D-? team and a 12 point road win against Cal State Bakersfield wraps up the schedule for San Diego. I really like San Diego’s combo of Brandon Johnson and Gyno Pomare as well. I hate laying 11.5 points with a team like San Diego, but this seems like a cupcake for them and San Diego has beat teams like that very handily this season.
  • TPowell
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-21-08
    • 18842

    #2
    added San Diego (-11.5)
    Comment
    • MoneySportsGuy
      SBR MVP
      • 12-09-07
      • 4891

      #3
      TPow

      Agree with you on Wichita I had them winning by 2 so like them in this spot.
      Seems the San Diego game is toss up, although your info provided causes me to re-analyze and take a better look as I actually like San Jose St.

      Have you looked at Illinois and Hawaii? I think Illinois wins easily and other game, Lamar and Louisville I can see Louisville winning by 10.
      Comment
      • MrMonkey
        SBR MVP
        • 11-09-08
        • 2278

        #4
        Like your thoughts on WST-TCU. Good rebound. advantage against good teams. Have had some time off after playing 4 games in 7 days. Don't know much else about either team except WST plays in a good midmajor conf. Thanks TPowell for the Wagerline info. Seeing your record wish I was here for the CFB season.

        MrMOnkey
        Comment
        • TPowell
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-21-08
          • 18842

          #5
          yeah I really felt good about college football this year. Money, Louisville should beat Lamar by 20+ at least IMO. Where did you get -10?
          Comment
          • MoneySportsGuy
            SBR MVP
            • 12-09-07
            • 4891

            #6
            TPow

            Just what I came up with doing my calculations. I know Louisville has been hot though, and no way to add that into another thing I am going to consider is being tired. Played games back to back now and wondering when their offense will slow down.
            Comment
            • TPowell
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-21-08
              • 18842

              #7
              honestly this team is 6 deep at the guard positions. None are GREAT, but Pitino will play all 6 of those guys in every game more than likely. The frontcourt is a different story, but T-Will and Earl Clark play 30-35 minutes a game. Louisville actually shot the ball ALOT better today and yesterday. This isn't a perimeter oriented team at all and this should be an advantage in these tournaments. I havent really looked at Lamar outside of watching them for 15-20 minutes
              Comment
              • MoneySportsGuy
                SBR MVP
                • 12-09-07
                • 4891

                #8
                yeah you definitely have a good point about not being perimiter minded team. I forgot, but aren't you from Louisville? Saw Lamar tonight and they kept it close with Ind State, crazy they got their first win.
                Comment
                • TPowell
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-21-08
                  • 18842

                  #9
                  yeah I am, if Indiana State beat them I dont think they can stay within 20 but I'm not betting it either way more than likely. I dont bet on Louisville anymore, but I would cap this in the low 20's more than likely. The depth and conditioning should be too much for Lamar
                  Comment
                  • jesron1269
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 11-13-08
                    • 163

                    #10
                    Originally posted by TPowell
                    Wichita State (+2) at TCU

                    ...and an 8 point win at South Dakota State doesn’t make me think otherwise. [/size]
                    Guys I live in Brookings, South Dakota (home of South Dakota State University) and they (South Dakota State University) basically were in the game with SJSU. The 8 point win was a fluke and it should have came to the final shot either way. SDSU is a bad mens team (just to give you fair warning in the NCAA Woman's tourny this year the Woman's team is for real and could go fairly deep as they kept it close with Maryland and are pretty good). The mens team just lost to a 1-5 Old Dominion team at home last night. My point is SJSU blows and I would not be surprised if San Diego rolls them. Of course I would feel more comfortable if it was San Diego State University (or as I like to call them the other SDSU) at home. I will look deeper into this game now.
                    Comment
                    • MoneySportsGuy
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-09-07
                      • 4891

                      #11
                      alright appreciate that info jesron
                      Comment
                      • ManBearPig
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-04-08
                        • 2473

                        #12
                        As a Nevada alum and fan I can attest to the legitamacy of San Diego. They should roll SJSU as they have done nothing this year so far to prove they have improved. In fact most of the teams in the conference are struggling or have played a pretty light schedule so they have an inflated record right now so this and the Hawaii games I would consider good plays. I will prob play a 2team parlay on those two games as this should be easy money.
                        Comment
                        • africanroller
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 11-30-08
                          • 936

                          #13
                          Louisville is -27
                          Comment
                          • pirate
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 05-18-08
                            • 216

                            #14
                            Brandon is out of San Diego lineup with a torn achilles tendon.
                            Comment
                            • smsutto
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 12-02-08
                              • 56

                              #15
                              Does anyone think Louisville can cover the -27. I lost last night when I thought UCLA would cover the -21.5.
                              Comment
                              • keitht
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 12-06-08
                                • 878

                                #16
                                yes we can

                                Originally posted by smsutto
                                Does anyone think Louisville can cover the -27. I lost last night when I thought UCLA would cover the -21.5.
                                louisville steam rolls over lamar
                                Comment
                                • curious
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 07-20-07
                                  • 9093

                                  #17
                                  I have Wichita State on the spread and the moneyline.

                                  I am staying away from Louisville. These >20 point spreads keep burning me.

                                  Lamar looked pretty good the other night, so if you forced me to pick one I would take Lamar with the points. But, like I said I can't get a handle on these 20+ point spreads.

                                  I'm taking San Jose State and the points.
                                  Comment
                                  • $Bnizi
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 10-22-07
                                    • 252

                                    #18
                                    Good work man. Im on Wichita as well
                                    Comment
                                    • smsutto
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 12-02-08
                                      • 56

                                      #19
                                      Thanks. It looks like Lamar can put some pts on the board. Do you think I should take over 138?
                                      Comment
                                      • Kingctb27
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 07-16-08
                                        • 2258

                                        #20
                                        Damn dude San Jose is down to 8.5. I hate when that shit happens.
                                        Comment
                                        • Ditaln1
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 11-26-07
                                          • 588

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Kingctb27
                                          Damn dude San Jose is down to 8.5. I hate when that shit happens.

                                          That's a blessing, wait, should come down even more. People are hammering SJS side right now. It'll probably be down a point of more by game time. If you took SDSU at -11.5 , take them again at a lower spread to hedge the bet.
                                          Comment
                                          • MoneySportsGuy
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-09-07
                                            • 4891

                                            #22
                                            goodluck tonight TPow
                                            Comment
                                            • TPowell
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 02-21-08
                                              • 18842

                                              #23
                                              wow sucks that Brandon Johnson is out but they should still cover 8.5
                                              Comment
                                              • MoneySportsGuy
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-09-07
                                                • 4891

                                                #24
                                                lets cash Wichita State today!
                                                Comment
                                                • curious
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 07-20-07
                                                  • 9093

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by smsutto
                                                  Thanks. It looks like Lamar can put some pts on the board. Do you think I should take over 138?
                                                  I don't play many totals, Louisville has just crushed everyone they have played this year except WK. Personally I think this game is too risky.

                                                  I might do a parlay on Lamar + the points and the OVER.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TPowell
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 02-21-08
                                                    • 18842

                                                    #26
                                                    I just bought out my San Diego play so all I have tonight is Wichita State (+2.5)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • WestsidePete
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 07-19-07
                                                      • 8049

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by TPowell
                                                      I just bought out my San Diego play so all I have tonight is Wichita State (+2.5)
                                                      Same here....let's go Wichita St !! Also on them +2.5 for 2 units and one on Illinois -22
                                                      Comment
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