-
-
I always have trouble betting against Top teams, so I will probably stay away from Buffalo and USC. But, the rest of them I will be on with you!Comment -
Like your strategy!
New to this Curious, know CBB, just never wagered. Like the strategy of winning big with the moneyline and covering your tracks with a 2x on the spread. Seems like that is a better way to go than picking parleys?
Working lots of hours but I will definitely be keeping my eye on what you are doing every day. Loved Richmond last night and they almost came back to pull off the upset. Appreciate your insight!!!
MrMonkeyComment -
Do you do just a 2 team round robin?? GL tonight!
Comment -
No, I do every possible round robin using the list of teams from 2 team, 3 team, up to N team round robins. So, say I have 6 big dogs, I would play:
6 team parlay
5 team round robin
4 team round robin
3 team rond robin
2 team round robinComment -
yes, I did say that. But I use large unit sizes and I don't want people playing these plays blind. They have to use kelly criterion to know how much to bet according to their bankroll,and kelly is based on expected value, so they have to determine what they think expected value is. So, they have to do some research.
If someone is looking at all the plays and making educated decisions and they don't play every single play, they are probably going to be okay. BUT, if someone just picks games at random out of my list based on "opinion" they are probably going to get killed.Comment -
So Curious,
Since you think Buffaloe is going to win, and they are catching 15points, do you bet this game more than the others? Only seems obvious that you would.Comment -
curious
can you explain how you do round robins I have never done those before I dont get how it works and how you win?Comment -
Sure. Let's say you have five teams you like and you want to do some 2 team parlays. But you can't decide which combination of all the possible 2 team combinations of 5 teams to do. So, you decide to do them all. Now, if you had to place the parlay bets one by one it would take all day. So, instead you can do a 2 team round robin using all 5 teams. To set up a round robin you give the list of all the teams you want to use in the parlays and then give the number of teams to be in each parlay.
I will use a 2 team parlay from 3 teams as an example. If I have 3 teams I like, call them A, B, and C, I just set up the round robin as a 2 team round robin using A, B, and C. If you do this online you will then see these parlay bets made:
A and B
A and C
B and C
Now you get paid on each parlay individually, so to win here two of the teams have to win in order to be paid off on one parlay, 3 teams have to win to be paid on all 3 parlays, if 2 teams lose you lose all 3 parlays.
Since my big dogs win on the moneyline > 50% of the time and the parlay odds can become ridiculous for parlays using big dogs your win rate on the parlays doesn't have to be very high to make out really well.
Like tonight, we have lots of big dogs. So if you had one big dog at +400 and one at +300, that would pay +1900. Since my big dogs hit > 50% this is a positive expectation.Comment -
SBR took my PM away from me because I stand up to the idiots on here that harass me. So, I cannot PM you, but I can explain.
I have told people not to pick and choose plays from my picks, but to play them all because the way I set up the unit sizes I am going for an overall win across all the games. So if you randomly pick and choose you won't be playing enough games for variance to even out. Someone would probably get creamed doing that.
I have also told people not to bet the picks blindly. That sounds like contradictory advice.
The unit size needs to be adjusted to your bankroll so that the risk of ruin of your bank is manageable. I have a low pain threshold so I use a risk of ruin of 2% using half or one quarter Kelly. Sometimes I use a risk of ruin of 1%. You also need to know what the expected value of the proposition is to know what the unit size needs to be for your bankroll. I don't publish that so you have to figure it out yourself. If you don't see an edge then you can scale your bet back.
So I tell people to do their own research, so they know hat the bet size for them should be given their risk threshold and their perceived expected value for the plays in total.
This system works over a large number of plays where bet size is scaled to the probability of winning and the unit size is set using the Kelly criterion. The system won't work if someone flat bets or randomly picks and chooses plays from my list.Comment -
Curious,
Still dont understand how you do it online, the book I use just seems you click like you do for normal parlay so if I want to do 3 teams, I just do the ML on all 3 and then what do I hit?Comment -
For example, I did Butler ML Young St ML and Coll Charleston -5, and options it gave me was either round robin with 2's or round robin with 2's and 3's? what is different and what is best value?Comment -
Curious, you are one cool dude.
Comment -
So curious I go and pick 2 different ML underdogs for round robin?Comment -
Ok so I picked 6 teams and these are my options:
round with with 2's
round robin with 2,3
rr 2,3,4
rr 2,3,4,5,
rr 2,3,4,5,6
3,4
rr 3,4, 5
rr 3,4, 5, 6Comment -
and these are games I have Young, Butler, Citadel, Austin Peay ML with Denver and Coll Charleston selected on spread
book is BetJamComment -
thanks again budComment -
Take rr 2,3,4,5,6 BUT don't go crazy with bet size that is going to be a shit load of games. LOL. And if we have a bad night you will get creamed. But, if we go 10-0 again you wil be able to retire.
Make sure you double check the total amount of the bet before you hit commit. Use a small amount to test it first, like $1.Comment -
Your...
Curious....give me your two best plays for tonight and I'll tail you.Comment -
curious
I am going to do the one you suggested but how do I get paid? do they all have to win or what?Comment -
K....taking SC +8 and UCLA +5 1/2Comment -
curious what is a good example of round robin that is smaller then 6 teams? tried to do that but it was more the risk amountComment -
Most of our plays had line moves in our favor
I just noticed that most of our plays had line moves in our favor. Hmmm, I wonder if that is happening every night. I wasn't watching that before.Comment -
thanks curious did a 3 team rr 2,3 like you said
is there a payout sheet that has about round robins? i still dont understand what you have to do to win on them, as well as bet amounts like I did I think 4 and it made my bet like $20? just confused at the cost and risk of itComment
