Wed, Dec 3 Dogs which should be favs

[curious]

I have done really well playing dogs that the prediction model says should be favs. Two things I have found about these "dog" favs - one, they win on the moneyline more often than not,and two the probability of winning is higher the higher the spread is (which is the opposite of how dogs usually work). I'll post unit sizes later but remember the higher the spread the higher the probability.

Here is the list for wed:
East Carolina +3
Brown +16
Rhode Island PK
Richmond +6 1/2
Penn St. +8 1/2
Ohio PK
Miami OH +3
New Mexico St. +17
Northern Illinois +7
Wyoming +3
Michigan St +9 1/2
Texas Christian +3 1/2
Depaul +9
Rutgers +2 1/2
Akron +7 1/2
Weber St. +9
Northern Colorado +6 1/2
Eastern Washington +6 1/2

[MoneySportsGuy]

so wait, that list that you wrote, what about those teams? all those should win in your system tomorrow?

[MoneySportsGuy]

I like East Carolina, RI, Richmond, Whyo, maybe MSU out of those

[Dougie Fresh]

What prediction model are you using?

[curious]

so wait, that list that you wrote, what about those teams? all those should win in your system tomorrow?

Yes, for all of these the prediction model says they should be favorites. Since they are dogs you are getting free points.

All of these are my picks for today, I will post unit sizes later.

[curious]

What prediction model are you using?

A mathematical model that predicts how a team would perform if they played today. Strength of schedule is weighed very heavily. A team that loses close games against tough teams will be rated higher then a team that wins close games against poor teams.

I use the prediction model to find lines that are way off from what my model says they should be.

The model favors two kinds of plays - teams that the prediction model says should be favored, but the linesmakers are giving them points, and teams that are being given more than 20 points but the team is better than that, they are being given so many points because the favorite is so popular. The model works with favorites too, I will post some favorites later today, but these "dog" favs are stronger plays.

[Ralphie1412]

you think michigan st should be favored over the heels?

[Lout84]

Also, any particular reason why you only like dogs today and no favs??

[chucksmith]

The fact that your model says Mich St should be favored over Carolina makes it a complete joke.

[Kingctb27]

Been following you on a few plays, but the Michigan State is a complete joke. Come on man.

[Lout84]

I guarantee New Mexico St in no way will beat Kansas at home.

[xstud]

BYU should be able to cover fairly easy... how they are a dog to you is beyond me.

Lieutenant Dan you are losing it.

[chucksmith]

Been following you on a few plays, but the Michigan State is a complete joke. Come on man.

This guy is a joke in general. A couple of years back he got all bent out of shape at Pavyracer bc he could not handle criticism in his threads. Guy cites all these formulas and models but at the end of the day, he doesnt know a damn thing about sports and his opinion is useless to me.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Some of these look interesting, going to see how the lin moves and decide which to play

Goodluck in your picks

[wild willy]

Thanks Man

[Husker36]

This guy is a joke in general. A couple of years back he got all bent out of shape at Pavyracer bc he could not handle criticism in his threads. Guy cites all these formulas and models but at the end of the day, he doesnt know a damn thing about sports and his opinion is useless to me.

If you think this guy is a joke then dont read his picks. I just know I hit a 9 team parlay on Monday using his picks and until he cools off I'm going to wait for his picks each day!

[curious]

you think michigan st should be favored over the heels?

My prediction model says they should be at this point in time.

[curious]

BYU should be able to cover fairly easy... how they are a dog to you is beyond me.

Lieutenant Dan you are losing it.

I don't see BYU in my list anywhere so I am not sure what you are talking about. And please, if you want to talk to me do not insult my disability by calling me Lieutenant Dan. Either that or do not talk to me.

[curious]

Also, any particular reason why you only like dogs today and no favs??

I haven't posted the favs yet, I will post them later today. I am very busy today and the dogs have been stronger plays lately.

[curious]

I guarantee New Mexico St in no way will beat Kansas at home.

They don't have to beat them, they only have to lose by less than 17 points.

[curious]

This guy is a joke in general. A couple of years back he got all bent out of shape at Pavyracer bc he could not handle criticism in his threads. Guy cites all these formulas and models but at the end of the day, he doesnt know a damn thing about sports and his opinion is useless to me.

Then don't come in my threads.

I have posted solid plays day in and day out that if you followed you would be up over 6,000 units. Please give us links to your picks that have a good track record.

If you don't like my threads then stay out of them.

[curious]

Been following you on a few plays, but the Michigan State is a complete joke. Come on man.

Why do you think so?

[curious]

The fact that your model says Mich St should be favored over Carolina makes it a complete joke.

Then don't follow the play.

[Lout84]

They don't have to beat them, they only have to lose by less than 17 points.

Yea, I was just saying, I hope you don't go ML on New Mexico St.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Why such criticism on a forum sure confuses me. Its one thing to have an opinion but why attack somebody just becacuse you like the other side? Were all on here to make picks, analyze, discuss and contribute. and the best prt is making money.

So instead of an attack, put your money where your mouth is and move along

[demize21]

hey the las 2 days i followed his plays and they were both positive units if you add up yesterdays sheet he posted he was + 358.50 {not including 2h plays posted in a later thread was alot better} and the day before that was 10-0 keep up the good work curious i made money yesterday following most of your picks after doing additional research

[chucksmith]

Then don't come in my threads.

I have posted solid plays day in and day out that if you followed you would be up over 6,000 units. Please give us links to your picks that have a good track record.

If you don't like my threads then stay out of them.

Bet the house on Rhode Island -2 tonight and talk to me tomorrow little man.

[WestsidePete]

This guy is a joke in general. A couple of years back he got all bent out of shape at Pavyracer bc he could not handle criticism in his threads. Guy cites all these formulas and models but at the end of the day, he doesnt know a damn thing about sports and his opinion is useless to me.

I see....so curious going 10-0 two days ago is useless to you?? Post your picks then....

[Doc JS]

Why do you think so?

Because we've seen both UNC and Michigan State play this season. UNC, along with UConn, is one of the two best teams in the nation. Michigan State is in that next tier of teams down from there.

The game is being played at Auburn Hills so it's not truly a "home" game for Michigan State. There will be more MSU fans there than Tar Heel fans, but it's more of a Final 4 arena not the large home court advantage MSU would have it the game was being played in East Lansing on their home court.

So, I think some of the grief that you're catching is that many here would consider any math model that has MSU favored to beat UNC to be fundamentally flawed in some fashion.

Now, you've obviously been successful with it but I do think that's why you're catching some grief...

Doc

[MoneySportsGuy]

Doc

thanks for the info on MSU playing Auburn Hills, I was leaning MSU at home court, but I think Heels can cover now its more "neutral" court

[xstud]

I don't see BYU in my list anywhere so I am not sure what you are talking about. And please, if you want to talk to me do not insult my disability by calling me Lieutenant Dan. Either that or do not talk to me.

Lieutenant Dan...

You have weber state +9... Weber state plays BYU.. how you would pick against a team who is undefeated and the SMALLEST margin of victory is 10 is beyond me..

[curious]

Lieutenant Dan...

You have weber state +9... Weber state plays BYU.. how you would pick against a team who is undefeated and the SMALLEST margin of victory is 10 is beyond me..

If you dont like my plays then fade them, but either stop insulting my disability or GET THE **** OUT OF MY THREAD.

[ryanXL977]

fsu

[Lout84]

xstud, relax man. there is no need to insult anyone.

[Dad]

Curious, dont listen to the haters. Keep doing what you do.