Taking a Chance on college basketball
Taking a Chance on college basketball
Led by Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson, the North Carolina Tar Heels sit at the head of the class entering the 2008-09 college basketball season with their ACC rivals from Duke breathing down their necks.
College basketball is here again, which means we’ll soon be up to our necks in the betting odds for some 200 of the 343 teams in Division I. If the foundation of a sharp bankroll is volume betting, then college hoops is the sharp place to be.
Not that you needed a bracketology guru to pick the top teams going into the 2007-08 season. Everyone with half a brain (and I resemble that remark) was on North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas and Memphis from Day One. That turned out to be your Final Four.
Here’s who I had on my Top 10 list one year ago, along with how they finished.
1. Memphis Tigers (38-2 SU, 18-20-2 ATS)
2. North Carolina Tar Heels (36-3 SU, 24-12 ATS)
3. UCLA Bruins (35-4 SU, 21-15-2 ATS)
4. Kansas Jayhawks (37-3 SU, 23-15 ATS)
5. Louisville Cardinals (27-9 SU, 20-13-1 ATS)
6. Duke Blue Devils (28-6 SU, 16-15-2 ATS)
7. Michigan State Spartans (27-9 SU, 15-15-2 ATS)
8. Marquette Golden Eagles (25-10 SU, 17-12 ATS)
9. Georgetown Hoyas (28-6 SU, 14-17 ATS)
10. Kentucky Wildcats (18-13 SU, 14-13-1 ATS)
That turned out pretty well – except for the Wildcats, who were so messed up that Alex Legion decided he wanted to play for Illinois (16-19 SU, 14-20-1 ATS) instead. You won’t find either team on this year’s Top 10 list.
1. North Carolina Tar Heels
They’re bringing back all the gang from last year: Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington – and Marcus Ginyard, who’s out for two months with a stress fracture. That won’t stop North Carolina from running away with it this year. The Heels are deserving 5-2 favorites to win the Tournament.
2. Duke Blue Devils
Despite leaving the Big Dance early two years in a row, Duke was No. 11 in the Pomeroy rankings in 2006 and No. 8 in 2007. The Devils have four starters returning and a strong freshman class that should give the team the depth it needs to get into the Final Four.
3. Louisville Cardinals
The Cards have been Final Four candidates two years running, but haven’t gotten their 2005-level swag back – until now. Louisville returns most of the players from their Elite Eight squad, and freshman Samardo Samuels could be even better than the man he’s replacing, David Padgett.
4. UCLA Bruins
I like the Bruins to make it right back to the Final Four and make some good coin doing it. The high-profile departure of Kevin Lowe is mitigated by the relatively low-profile arrival of top prospect Jrue Holiday. The futures market already has UCLA second on the championship odds list behind North Carolina at 7-1.
5. Texas Longhorns
Texas also has a chance to make a mint in the wake of D.J. Augustin’s decision to turn pro. The Longhorns will be a stronger interior team this year, and shooters like A.J. Abrams will keep the Longhorns in the championship mix at 15-1.
6. Michigan State Spartans
It’s more of the same for the Spartans, even with All-American Drew Neitzel now part of the German Bundesliga. Adding superfrosh power forward Delvon Roe actually makes the Spartans frontline so much better that MSU should improve this year and be a legitimate title threat at 15-1.
7. Memphis Tigers
Yes, Derrick Rose is gone, but Tyreke Evans is the latest one-and-done sensation to land in John Calipari’s lap. They went to the Elite Eight the two seasons before Rose landed in Memphis, and they should make it again with Evans joining Robert Dozier and Antonio Anderson.
8. UConn Huskies
Jim Calhoun’s Huskies are something of a wild card this year. They have four starters returning from a team that finished No. 22 in Pomeroy efficiency, and freshman point guard Kemba Walker brings the kind of “tremendous upside” that could put UConn in the title hunt.
9. Pittsburgh Panthers
Another Big East contender with three of its top players from last year: Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields. However, Fields had two surgeries on his broken left foot, and the chance that he’ll never be the same again is big enough to make Pitt too risky for my blood.
10. Miami Hurricanes
My dark horse of the year at 30-1 to win the title. The ‘Canes got back into the Tournament this past March and will continue to improve under Frank Haith’s watchful eye. Guard Jack McClinton is ready to make the leap after working hard on his game over the summer. Maybe he’ll even make Miami fans forget how bad their football team is.
Led by Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson, the North Carolina Tar Heels sit at the head of the class entering the 2008-09 college basketball season with their ACC rivals from Duke breathing down their necks.
College basketball is here again, which means we’ll soon be up to our necks in the betting odds for some 200 of the 343 teams in Division I. If the foundation of a sharp bankroll is volume betting, then college hoops is the sharp place to be.
Not that you needed a bracketology guru to pick the top teams going into the 2007-08 season. Everyone with half a brain (and I resemble that remark) was on North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas and Memphis from Day One. That turned out to be your Final Four.
Here’s who I had on my Top 10 list one year ago, along with how they finished.
1. Memphis Tigers (38-2 SU, 18-20-2 ATS)
2. North Carolina Tar Heels (36-3 SU, 24-12 ATS)
3. UCLA Bruins (35-4 SU, 21-15-2 ATS)
4. Kansas Jayhawks (37-3 SU, 23-15 ATS)
5. Louisville Cardinals (27-9 SU, 20-13-1 ATS)
6. Duke Blue Devils (28-6 SU, 16-15-2 ATS)
7. Michigan State Spartans (27-9 SU, 15-15-2 ATS)
8. Marquette Golden Eagles (25-10 SU, 17-12 ATS)
9. Georgetown Hoyas (28-6 SU, 14-17 ATS)
10. Kentucky Wildcats (18-13 SU, 14-13-1 ATS)
That turned out pretty well – except for the Wildcats, who were so messed up that Alex Legion decided he wanted to play for Illinois (16-19 SU, 14-20-1 ATS) instead. You won’t find either team on this year’s Top 10 list.
1. North Carolina Tar Heels
They’re bringing back all the gang from last year: Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington – and Marcus Ginyard, who’s out for two months with a stress fracture. That won’t stop North Carolina from running away with it this year. The Heels are deserving 5-2 favorites to win the Tournament.
2. Duke Blue Devils
Despite leaving the Big Dance early two years in a row, Duke was No. 11 in the Pomeroy rankings in 2006 and No. 8 in 2007. The Devils have four starters returning and a strong freshman class that should give the team the depth it needs to get into the Final Four.
3. Louisville Cardinals
The Cards have been Final Four candidates two years running, but haven’t gotten their 2005-level swag back – until now. Louisville returns most of the players from their Elite Eight squad, and freshman Samardo Samuels could be even better than the man he’s replacing, David Padgett.
4. UCLA Bruins
I like the Bruins to make it right back to the Final Four and make some good coin doing it. The high-profile departure of Kevin Lowe is mitigated by the relatively low-profile arrival of top prospect Jrue Holiday. The futures market already has UCLA second on the championship odds list behind North Carolina at 7-1.
5. Texas Longhorns
Texas also has a chance to make a mint in the wake of D.J. Augustin’s decision to turn pro. The Longhorns will be a stronger interior team this year, and shooters like A.J. Abrams will keep the Longhorns in the championship mix at 15-1.
6. Michigan State Spartans
It’s more of the same for the Spartans, even with All-American Drew Neitzel now part of the German Bundesliga. Adding superfrosh power forward Delvon Roe actually makes the Spartans frontline so much better that MSU should improve this year and be a legitimate title threat at 15-1.
7. Memphis Tigers
Yes, Derrick Rose is gone, but Tyreke Evans is the latest one-and-done sensation to land in John Calipari’s lap. They went to the Elite Eight the two seasons before Rose landed in Memphis, and they should make it again with Evans joining Robert Dozier and Antonio Anderson.
8. UConn Huskies
Jim Calhoun’s Huskies are something of a wild card this year. They have four starters returning from a team that finished No. 22 in Pomeroy efficiency, and freshman point guard Kemba Walker brings the kind of “tremendous upside” that could put UConn in the title hunt.
9. Pittsburgh Panthers
Another Big East contender with three of its top players from last year: Sam Young, DeJuan Blair and Levance Fields. However, Fields had two surgeries on his broken left foot, and the chance that he’ll never be the same again is big enough to make Pitt too risky for my blood.
10. Miami Hurricanes
My dark horse of the year at 30-1 to win the title. The ‘Canes got back into the Tournament this past March and will continue to improve under Frank Haith’s watchful eye. Guard Jack McClinton is ready to make the leap after working hard on his game over the summer. Maybe he’ll even make Miami fans forget how bad their football team is.