Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Houston Rockets +3
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Ah, the Lakers, my #20-ranked road team. The Lakers are a Jekyll and Hyde team that is almost too easy to take advantage of when they hit the road. It wouldn’t be so easy if the public realized how atrocious the Lake show is on the road.
The Rockets are a fairly deep team that would never be dogs at home to the Lakers, if Lowry and Martin were healthy. That means Vegas is valuing their injuries at 3 points for more, which is an over-adjustment. Courtney Lee replaces Kevin Martin and opens playing time for Chase Budinger, who has a higher Roland rating than Martin and Lee.
Lowry, with a +4.9 Roland rating should be valued at 2 points max, so we are catching at least a 2-3 point over-adjustment from Vegas on the Rocket’s injury situation.
Referee assignments:
Get this line ASAP (as I alerted on twitter earlier today), looks ready to tick down to +2.5. If it is +2.5 at your book you should wait to see if it hits +3 again.
Utah Jazz +3
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Al Jefferson will return to the Jazz today, but even without Jefferson this would have been a play.
The Jazz are one of the best home teams in the NBA, I rank them #6. That means they should very rarely be a dog at home, and never a dog by 3 full points.
The Thunder are one of the most publicly-backed teams in the NBA and that means Vegas loses money for every spread OKC covers. OKC is covering 55.6% of spreads this year and that means Vegas must inflate Thunder lines to stop losses.
Vegas is in the same situation with the Thunder as they were with the Heat 2 weeks ago, right before Miami went on that 1-6 ATS run that I forecasted. Miami is now covering 50% of spreads on the season. Vegas will inflate OKC lines until they regress to a percentage similar to the Heat (50%), that means OKC is due for an ATS skid.
Referee assignments:
You are safe to wait on this line fore now. The public is, naturally, heavy on the Thunder.
Sacramento Kings +3
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Tyreke Evans will play, which is a small bonus, but not nearly as important as people. Evans is the sixth most important/efficient player on the Kings, of players that have played 25% or more of the Kings minutes this year. That being said, he is a better starting option than John Salmons, who has a terrible Roland rating of (-6.7).
As I’ve said, the Kings are probably the most talented young team in the league, and that means they improve with every game they play. Memphis is scrappy and it is good that they got Randolph back, but he is still rusty and there are only so many shots/rebounds your team can get per game.
I’ll take the home dog in a game like this any day.
Referee assignments:
We are safe to wait on this line for now. Will update via twitter, as always.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Plays:
Houston Rockets +3
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Ah, the Lakers, my #20-ranked road team. The Lakers are a Jekyll and Hyde team that is almost too easy to take advantage of when they hit the road. It wouldn’t be so easy if the public realized how atrocious the Lake show is on the road.
The Rockets are a fairly deep team that would never be dogs at home to the Lakers, if Lowry and Martin were healthy. That means Vegas is valuing their injuries at 3 points for more, which is an over-adjustment. Courtney Lee replaces Kevin Martin and opens playing time for Chase Budinger, who has a higher Roland rating than Martin and Lee.
Lowry, with a +4.9 Roland rating should be valued at 2 points max, so we are catching at least a 2-3 point over-adjustment from Vegas on the Rocket’s injury situation.
Referee assignments:
- Monty McCutchen: 15-19 home team ATS record
- Mark Ayotte: 20-15 home team ATS record
- Marat Kogut: 17-12-1 home team ATS record
Get this line ASAP (as I alerted on twitter earlier today), looks ready to tick down to +2.5. If it is +2.5 at your book you should wait to see if it hits +3 again.
Utah Jazz +3
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Al Jefferson will return to the Jazz today, but even without Jefferson this would have been a play.
The Jazz are one of the best home teams in the NBA, I rank them #6. That means they should very rarely be a dog at home, and never a dog by 3 full points.
The Thunder are one of the most publicly-backed teams in the NBA and that means Vegas loses money for every spread OKC covers. OKC is covering 55.6% of spreads this year and that means Vegas must inflate Thunder lines to stop losses.
Vegas is in the same situation with the Thunder as they were with the Heat 2 weeks ago, right before Miami went on that 1-6 ATS run that I forecasted. Miami is now covering 50% of spreads on the season. Vegas will inflate OKC lines until they regress to a percentage similar to the Heat (50%), that means OKC is due for an ATS skid.
Referee assignments:
- Rodney Mott: 22-13 home team ATS record
- Derrick Collins: 17-16-1 home team ATS record
- Scott Wall: 16-10-1 home team ATS record
You are safe to wait on this line fore now. The public is, naturally, heavy on the Thunder.
Sacramento Kings +3
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
Tyreke Evans will play, which is a small bonus, but not nearly as important as people. Evans is the sixth most important/efficient player on the Kings, of players that have played 25% or more of the Kings minutes this year. That being said, he is a better starting option than John Salmons, who has a terrible Roland rating of (-6.7).
As I’ve said, the Kings are probably the most talented young team in the league, and that means they improve with every game they play. Memphis is scrappy and it is good that they got Randolph back, but he is still rusty and there are only so many shots/rebounds your team can get per game.
I’ll take the home dog in a game like this any day.
Referee assignments:
- Eddie F. Rush: 15-15 home team ATS record
- David Guthrie: 4-6-1 home team ATS record
- Kevin Scott: 5-9 home team ATS record
We are safe to wait on this line for now. Will update via twitter, as always.
thx man
